Gm friends,
Wednesday’s CPI data suggests we’ll see a 0.25% rate cut next week, as opposed to 0.50%.
But don’t despair, because this might actually be better for bitcoin’s price in the short-term.
So pour that coffee and strap in. This is your mid-week crypto update. ☕️📰
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Here’s what’s in today’s issue:
- David shares his thoughts on an all but confirmed rate cut, BTC dipping after the debate, active addresses ripping north on Solana, Base and Cardano, & a solo BTC miner hitting jackpot.
- Rekt Capital has the latest technical analysis for you on the market.
- Erik has a report on Story Protocol: Moving intellectual property on-chain.
- In case you missed it by Rebecca.
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0.25% Rate Cut Confirmed?
It appears as though a 0.25% rate cut from the Federal Reserve will be happening on September 18th.
That’s because August’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released yesterday. The numbers fell in line with expectations, and this leads analysts to believe that a 0.25% rate cut is all but locked in for next week.
Year-over-year (YOY) inflation for August came in at 2.5%, representing a 0.4% drop compared to July’s YOY numbers. August’s month-over-month reading came in at 0.2%, and thus didn’t deviate from the same number printed in July.
If August’s inflation readings had come in significantly lower than expectations, this would have increased the likelihood that the Fed would cut rates next week by 0.50%. But that didn’t happen. Before Wednesday’s numbers were released, Polymarket’s odds of a 0.25% or 0.50% rate cut was 70% vs. 30%, respectively. Now they’re 91% vs. 8%.
While it might seem as though a 0.50% rate cut would have been better for the prices of bitcoin and crypto, 10x Research on Monday warned that such a cut could actually create further downward pressure on bitcoin and other “risk-on” assets in the short-term.
The thinking goes that an aggressive rate cut by the Fed might spook the markets into believing that the economy is on some sort of a precipice (i.e. “the Fed is taking emergency actions. We’re doomed!”). Thus, there’s actually a risk that a 0.50% cut could usher in some sort of rush to the exits. But the good news is that Wednesday’s CPI numbers significantly mitigate this risk.
So expect a 0.25% cut next week.
Bitcoin Dips After Harris Wins Debate
Bitcoin fell from $57.8K to $56.1K on Tuesday evening. And what also occurred at the same time? The highly anticipated first debate between Trump and Harris.
Coincidence? I don’t think so.
We’ve been making the case for a while now that a bitcoin trade is setting up with regards to the winner of November’s election. And whether we like it or not, this is indeed the reality.
The logic is simple. If Trump wins, there’s a good chance that he fulfills his bitcoin-related campaign promises. Number go up. If Harris wins, there’s a decent chance that she remains hostile to the industry. That’s bad for price. Thus, determining the likely winner in advance gives a signal as to where price will probably go.
So, when most viewers walked away from Tuesday’s debate sensing that Harris got the best of Trump, Polymarket’s election winner odds adjusted accordingly, and bitcoin dipped.
Supporting our theory is Bernstein Bank. On Monday, Bernstein released a report stating that they believe bitcoin could hit $90K in Q4 if Trump wins the election. Alternatively, if Harris wins, they believe bitcoin could dip into the $30Ks.
The market will do its best to price-in the most probable victor. But if the race is neck-in-neck leading into election day – as is the most likely scenario – such a price-in will be impossible.
Therefore, expect insane price volatility in the following few days after the election.
Solana, Base, and Cardano Active Addresses Rip North
The active address counts on Solana (SOL), Base, and Cardano (ADA) are busting all kinds of records.
Starting with Solana, the network on Monday recorded the highest number of daily active addresses in the history of all blockchains! Yes, you read that correctly.
5.4M active addresses was the specific number hit. And SOL’s price is still ranging, despite this monumental achievement.
Turning to the Ethereum L2. Base witnessed a record-setting 14.1M active addresses on the network in August. That’s according to data from Dune Analytics. Base’s numbers put it miles ahead of both Aribitrum and Optimism, as the latter two had only 3M and 1M active addresses for the month, respectively.
And closing with Cardano, the network hit a 5 month high in active addresses (i.e. 52K) over the weekend. It’s believed that the active address spike is partly due to (1) the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance’s announcement that its native token FET is now on Cardano, and (2) the launch of Snek.fun on September 5th. Snek.fun is like Pump.fun, but for Cardano.
Solo Bitcoin Miner Hits Jackpot
A solo miner won the bitcoin lottery on Tuesday.
That’s because this miner single-handedly forged block #860749 on bitcoin’s blockchain. And therefore they earned $181,147 (3.125 BTC + fees) as a reward.
Not a bad payday!
Tuesday’s event captured the attention of the bitcoin community due to the exceedingly rare nature of such an occurrence. Current math suggests that a solo miner has about a 1 in 1.2B chance of producing any particular block, or a 1 in 8.7M chance of producing a single block on any given day.
The deck is stacked against solo miners because of (1) large corporate firms (e.g. MARA, RIOT, CORZ, etc.) that command a high percentage of bitcoin’s total hashrate, and (2) the fact that the majority of hashrate is concentrated into just a handful of mining pools (i.e. the six largest pools control 80%).
Mining pools are basically alliances whereby the miners pool together their processing power towards mining bitcoin, and then distribute the rewards amongst each other every time the pool produces a new block.
In today’s edition, the following cryptocurrencies will be analysed & discussed:
- Based Brett (BRETT)
- Vanar Chain (VANRY)
- Injective (INJ)
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Avalanche (AVAX)
- Optimism (OP)
Vanar Chain — VANRY/USDT
Last week, we spoke about how VANRY was on the cusp of a retest, and should that retest be successful, price would challenge the top of its existing market structure for a potential breakout:
Here is today’s chart:
VANRY has successfully retested the blue $0.088 level as support and is now challenging the top of the blue pattern for a breakout attempt.
Weekly Close above the top of this pattern (followed by a retest of it) would kickstart the breakout process.
Of course, the Bullish Divergence that is emerging will also lend a hand in a potential breakout when VANRY is ready:
Breaking out from the blue structure would enable a move to the black Macro Downtrend which is the most formidable resistance for VANRY at this time.
Breaking that Macro Downtrend would enable a new Macro Uptrend for price.
Once VANRY breaks out from this blue pattern, that breakout would act as a precursor to finally breaching that Macro Downtrend.
However, if VANRY Weekly Closes below the blue diagonal, then a breakout from this existing pattern would be postponed and price would consolidate inside the structure for a little while longer.
Injective — INJ/USDT
Price has continued to develop a series of Lower Lows as well as Lower Highs to form this potential Falling Wedge.
Moreover, we know that INJ is forming a Bullish Divergence at this time:
Lower Lows on the price action and Higher Lows on the RSI make for a Bull Div.
Overall, the RSI is forming a triangular market structure, with the key resistance being the red box which is approximately confluent with the top of said triangle.
A breakout beyond this red resistance on the RSI would be a positive contributing signal towards a Falling Wedge breakout looming large.
In the meantime, the $18.02 level (black) will act as a key reference point; if reclaim as support, then INJ would revisit the top of the structure for a potential breakout attempt, however if the black level acts as resistance then the bottom of this Falling Wedge could get tagged in the future.
Technically, INJ could consolidate in a downtrending manner within this pattern for as long as it needs to before breaking out from it.
Nonetheless, knowing about this pattern in of itself is useful as we know which resistance INJ will need to break to end its period of downtrending to finally enter a new uptrend.
Story Protocol: Moving Intellectual Property on Chain
The intellectual property (IP) industry is a mess of missed monetization opportunities. It is caused by outdated, costly, lawyer-assisted processes.
It’s a field that is just waiting to be disrupted/disintermediated by blockchain technology.
Story Network is a general-purpose Layer 1 that reimagines the IP system from the ground up. The Story testnet is currently live.
Crypto Market News
- El Salvador has celebrated its 3rd anniversary of adopting Bitcoin as legal tender with $31 million worth of profits. Source
- Bernstein has predicted a Bitcoin price of $80-90K if Trump wins the Presidential race and $30-40K if Harris wins. Source
- Japan’s Metaplanet has bought an additional $2 million in Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 398.8 BTC worth $26 million. Source
- Crypto investors lost a record high of $5.6 billion in scams during 2023, according to the FBI. Source
- Mastercard has partnered with Mercuryo to launch a euro-denominated crypto debit card allowing users to spend crypto from a self-custodial wallet. Source
- Swiss bank ZKB, one of the country’s largest banks, has launched Bitcoin and Ethereum trading. Source
- Mt. Gox’s former CEO is set to launch a new crypto exchange called EllipX in Europe this month. Source
- Japan’s financial regulator is planning to lower crypto taxes in 2025. Source
- Bitwise CIO has said wealth advisers are adopting Bitcoin ETFs “faster than any new ETF in history.” Source
- Bitcoin ETFs saw $28.6 million in inflows on September 9 after 8 days of outflows. Source
- Japanese power giant Tepco is exploring ‘green’ Bitcoin mining to save wasted renewable energy. Source
- Bitcoin miner Bitfarms has rescheduled its shareholder’s meeting from October 29 to November 6 to reevaluate an amended requisition from Riot Platforms. Source
Coins and Projects
- A solo Bitcoin miner has won a block and received a $180,000 reward. Source
- EigenLayer has launched a major upgrade to improve the performance of its restaking smart contracts. Source
- Ethereum Name Service (ENS) has been integrated into PayPal and Venmo. Source
- Tether has acquired a 9.8% stake in Latin American agricultural giant Adecoagro after investing $100 million. Source
- Tether has partnered with TRON to launch a Financial Crime Unit to tackle the illicit use of USDT. Source
- Stablecoin issuer Paxos is expanding to Ethereum Layer 2 network Arbitrum One. Source
- Spanish telecom giant Telefónica has become a system integrator of Polygon’s Privado ID identity solution. Source
- Polygon will buy $5 million worth of servers with zero-knowledge chips for its AggLayer. Source
- Pumpfun has sold $41 million in Solana tokens dragging down the price of SOL by over 12%. Source
- Solana-based NFT drop platform DRiP has raised $8 million in a seed funding round led by NFX, Progression and Coinbase Ventures. Source
- Libre protocol has launched its pool of tokenized funds on the Aptos network with the first funds coming from BlackRock’s ICS Money Market Fund. Source
- Celestia has released a technical roadmap explaining its path to scaling its block size to 1 gigabyte. Source
- Friendtech has dumped 26% after the development team abandoned the project. Source
- Telegram game Catizen has hit 800,000 paying users in its first 6 months. Source
- Ripple CEO Chris Larsen has signed a letter endorsing Harris for President. Source
Macro News
- The US, UK and EU have signed the world’s first international AI treaty to unify goals and values. Source
- The Federal Reserve has issued a cease-and-desist order to the crypto-friendly United Texas Bank. Source
- Nvidia has denied receiving a subpoena from the US Department of Justice. Source
- The North Carolina Senate has passed an anti-CBDC bill after overriding the governor’s veto. Source
Thank you so much for your support, and I truly hope that today’s issue will give you insights needed to help you master your wealth.
If you are reading this it means you are on the free version of the Wealth Mastery Investor Report, which is great for news and tips on the crypto markets.
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See you next time!
Lark and the Wealth Mastery Team
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Wealth Mastery (Lark Davis, and the Wealth Mastery writing team) are not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is Wealth Mastery registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. Wealth Mastery is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.
You can find a full disclosure of all my crypto & venture investments here.
Hi! My name is Lark Davis!
I’m a cryptocurrency investor with years of experience and I’ve been making consistent profits in the crypto space.
I’m passionate about helping others do the same, so I run multiple educational channels on crypto investing.
