Alert: Signals Flashing for Alt Season!

Gm friends,

With the crypto markets heating up, is Bitcoin set to continue the dominance it’s maintained so far this cycle, or are other crypto sectors setting up to cook? Today we’ll take a look at the multiple signals all switching on for alt coins.

Now, here’s what’s in today’s issue:

• Chart of the day: The BTC/S&P 500 ratio
• David shares his thoughts on Altcoin season breaching, BlackRock meeting with SEC tsk force, Equities trading coming to Solana, VC crypto funding returning & Coinbase launching 24/7 futures trading.
• Today on chain.
• Altcoin Alpha.

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Chart of the Day

Bitcoin is coming into its own as the BTC/S&P 500 ratio hit a new all-time high of $17.725 last Friday, as highlighted on X by Matthew Sigel of VanEck.

This came with BTC surging back above 100K after a months-long accumulation period, and was amid macro uncertainty and global drama around tariffs before the situation between the US and China improved, indicating that with BTC now easily accessed through ETFs, the strongest alternative to traditional assets is finding a stronger footing than ever.

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News Now

Is Alt Season Incoming?

Crypto can flip on a dime but right now there are a lot of indicators flashing that altcoins might be set for a prolonged run, so let’s go through the signals:

• ETH is moving. After a rough cycle for holders in which the ETH/BTC price dropped below 0.02 (it peaked above 0.088 in 2021) and with the ETH price almost 60% off ATHs when BTC broke above 100K again last week, ETH has now put in a solid move, climbing from below $1,800 last week to above $2,500 over the weekend, and with the ETH/BTC chart suggesting it might finally have put in a bottom by climbing to 0.025.

The usual pattern is that alt seasons start when capital flows to ETH, which then becomes a wider pump across smaller coins, so if we’re to get an alt season then ETH making gains is the first move we need. As for why ETH shot up, a post from Michael Nadeau identified a combination of spot buying, levered longs, and a big short squeeze.

• Bitcoin dominance down. Along with ETH moving, alt seasons are marked by BTC dominance falling, and last week it dropped from a peak of 65.38% to below 63%, after having climbed relentlessly this cycle. Sure, dominance is still high, but the drop may be a first move towards an alt-friendly environment.

• Memes up. The memecoin sector total market cap grew from $53 billion to $76 billion over the weekend, with previously comatose animal coins like PNUT and MOODENG waking up–another sign that traders are ready to move out along the risk curve.
• Alt season is missing! So far this cycle we’ve had specific sectors and tokens pumping in turn, but not a broad, everything-up alt season, so if this time around is to echo previous cycles then an alt season should happen sometime soon.
• Positive macro news. This affects all markets, and if overall sentiment leaves caution behind and flips bullish, that has to be good for alts, and over the weekend we had: a US/China trade deal, an India/Pakistan ceasefire, and the possibility of upcoming peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

All that said, keep in mind that if an alt season is coming, nothing goes up in a straight line and there will be pullbacks and buying opportunities along the way, so if you’re not positioned, don’t let FOMO drive your trading decisions.

BlackRock Meets With SEC Crypto Task Force

In case you missed it last week, there was an interesting development on the regulatory front as BlackRock met with the SEC’s new Crypto Task Force on May 9th.

One of the key items on the agenda–according to a BlackRock memo–was “considerations for facilitating ETPs with staking capabilities”. As BlackRock operates a spot ETH ETF, this underlines how the firm is moving closer to bringing in staking facilities on the fund, a change that would increase the attractiveness of buying the ETF rather than holding ETH.

The likelihood of this happening may also be increased by the recent appointment of Paul Atkins as the new Chair of the SEC, since Atkins is in favor of creating a constructive regulatory environment for digital assets, while Crypto Task Force leader Hester Peirce is well known for her pro-crypto stance.

Other notable items on the memo included discussion of “advancing tokenization of securities”, discussion of crypto ETP approval standards, and discussion of crypto ETP options, with options trading on some spot ETH ETFs already approved by the SEC last month.

Equities Trading Coming to Solana

DEX-based equities trading for retail investors is coming to the Solana blockchain, thanks to a new venture from RWA-focused crypto firm Superstate, which has announced that it will launch Opening Bell, a platform enabling companies to issue SEC-registered public equity directly onto blockchains.

According to a post from Superstate, this “brings public equity into the internet era, making shares programmable, available 24/7, and ready to trade at the speed of crypto”, and Robert Leshner, CEO of Superstate, has said that, “stock will become fully transferable, programmable, and integrated into DeFi”.

Importantly, these are not wrapped or synthetic shares, they’re actual shares, but issued on-chain, and the first company lined up to deploy on Superstate is Solana investment and infrastructure firm SOL Strategies.

VC Crypto Funding Returns

Are VCs ready to get back on the crypto train? According to research published by Galaxy Digital, investor interest has already been returning this year, as a report published at the start of this month shows that Q1 2025 brought $4.9 billion of VC investment into crypto startups.

This was across 446 deals and is a 40% increase on the previous quarter, making it the biggest quarter for investment since Q3 2022, although a difference is that investment was in a downtrend then but is increasing, quarter on quarter, at the moment.

However, VC investment is still way down on the peaks of 2021/22, despite the price of BTC now having pushed to new ATHs above six figures, and also, a hefty $2 billion of the capital invested in Q1 this year came from a single deal: MGX into Binance. 

Also, the report notes that “spot ETPs may be pressuring funds and startups”, with the new BTC and ETH ETFs offering uncomplicated vehicles by which large investors can gain crypto exposure.

Coinbase Launches 24/7 Futures Trading

Just one day after announcing its $2.9 billion acquisition of derivatives platform Deribit last week, Coinbase launched 24/7 trading on Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts for US users.

Coinbase’s post on this subject notes that, “this is the first time 24/7 trading is available for leveraged futures contracts on a CFTC-regulated exchange”, and also states that offering perpetual futures trading is next on the agenda, as Coinbase Derivatives (the derivatives arm of the platform) is “actively working to introduce perpetual-style futures to the US”.

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Today On Chain

Focusing in on the Base ecosystem, Token Terminal noted recently that there are now three participants that have registered TVLs above the $1 billion mark, with Morpho the latest to hit that level, joining the club with Circle and Aerodrome.

Also, you can see from the chart that Morpho is currently on a steep upward trajectory and looks set to overtake Aerodrome. Morpho itself is a lending protocol operating on Ethereum and Base, and it offers opportunities for users to earn yield on their assets by providing liquidity.

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Altcoin Alpha

• CryptoPunks have flipped Bitcoin! Well, kind of… the floor price on the iconic 2017 NFT collection has risen to around $116,000 while BTC is at around $104,000, meaning that right now one CryptoPunk will cost you more than one BTC.
• Solana-based AI Agent launchpad Holoworld facilitated its first launch: an AI Agent/virtual human project called Mirai that raised around $13 million through its presale.
• Uniswap, which first launched back in 2018 on Ethereum, announced that it has crossed a total of $3 trillion in all-time swap volume, so congrats to them!
• Set to launch this summer, consumer-facing new blockchain T-Rex, which specializes in culture and entertainment, and aims to link existing social media with Web3 rewards, last week raised $17 million in a pre-seed funding round.
• USDT0, the LayerZero cross-chain stablecoin backed by USDT, has been integrated into Hyperliquid and the HyperEVM, allowing for seamless minting and use across supported chains.

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Legal Disclaimer

Wealth Mastery (Lark Davis, and the Wealth Mastery writing team) are not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is Wealth Mastery registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. Wealth Mastery is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.

You can find a full disclosure of all my crypto & venture investments here.