GM friends.
Right now, we are five months past the 2024 halving. It’s go time.
So pour that coffee and strap in, because this is your mid-week crypto update. ☕️📰
Here’s what’s in today’s issue:
- David shares his thoughts on Bitcoin’s price, BTC options possibly sparking “gamma squeeze”, China announcing stimulus & rumours of a Polymarket token.
- Rekt Capital has the latest technical analysis for you on the market.
- Erik has an article on Sui vs Aptos.
- In case you missed it by Rebecca.
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All Eyes on Bitcoin’s Price
As we’ve discussed several times, it took approximately five months after both the 2016 and 2020 halvings for bitcoin’s supply shocks to kick in.
If you look at the charts, you’ll find that the five month marker after the previous two halvings is when bitcoin’s price broke out of side-ways consolidations to the upside, and the appreciation didn’t stop until bitcoin hit exponential all-time highs (ATH).
Well, it’s late September, which means we’re five months past the 2024 halving right now. All the while, bitcoin has been consolidating between $52K and $73K. So don’t be surprised if price breaks out of this range to the upside literally any day now.
Such a move would be consistent with the supply-shock timings of the last two halvings.
Bitcoin ATH by November or December at Latest
While the above scenario is extremely reasonable, there is another timeline that I believe is just as likely. And we need to discuss it. Here’s the argument.
- Bitcoin experienced an unprecedented pre-halving price rally in early 2024, due to anticipation over the U.S. spot bitcoin ETF approvals.
- Bitcoin’s price then consolidated around the 2020 cycle ATH as it went through the 2024 halving (i.e. also unprecedented).
- So, the 2024 post-halving supply shock might be happening – but also hidden – on the price charts, due to Bitcoin’s abnormally elevated price.
- If (3) is true, then the best measurement under the current circumstances is to look at the amount of time after both the 2016 and 2020 halvings that it took for bitcoin to convincingly break its prior cycle ATHs.
After the 2016 halving, it took bitcoin 228 days to break the 2012 cycle ATH. After the 2020 halving, it took bitcoin 220 days to break the 2016 cycle ATH.
If we map these time-frames over the 2024 halving, then bitcoin should be hitting a new ATH around late November or early December.
To wrap this up, we might see a new bitcoin ATH tomorrow or over the holidays. But I’m 95% confident that we will see a new ATH in 2024, because I think that the halving market cycle theory is one of the most powerful forces that drives bitcoin’s price.
Bitwise Executive Says BTC Options Could Spark “Gamma” Squeeze
On Saturday, we reported that the SEC approved options trading for BlackRock’s IBIT shares. While there’s still a few more regulatory hurdles to clear, this is damn big news because Wall Street and the institutions love options.
Now to be fair, the crypto bros are somewhat divided over this development. So perhaps we can do an analysis of the pessimists’ concerns sometime soon.
However, the glass-half-full crowd is currently being led by Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise. This past weekend, Park posted a piece on X arguing that the rollout of regulated bitcoin options is historically unprecedented, and that these options could pump bitcoin’s price so hard that “[t]hings will likely get wild [and] regulated markets may shut down.”
Whoa.
I encourage you to read Jeff’s piece. But his basic reasoning is that because bitcoin is “truly supply-constrained”, then traders purchasing a lot of call options could ignite a “gamma” squeeze, because market makers would be forced to purchase large amounts of spot bitcoin in order to cover the calls.
Essentially, bitcoin’s price could enter into an explosive recursive cycle upwards, similar to GME when Wall Street Bets put a short squeeze on the institutions. The difference here would be that bitcoin is hard-capped (i.e. unlike GME), and regulators can’t shut down decentralized market trading when things get crazy.
Park noted that these differences would only add further “fuel to the fire.”
China Announces Stimulus while U.S. M2 Hits Recent High
Turning to macroeconomics, China’s central bank (i.e. PBOC) announced this week a coming stimulus package for the world’s second largest economy, and analysts are saying that it’s China’s most aggressive monetary injection since COVID.
Specifically, the PBOC plans to lower the reserve requirement ratios (RRR) for Chinese banks by 50 bps (with further RRR cuts possible down the road), and cut the seven-day reverse repo rate by 20 bps. Both cuts will help increase liquidity throughout the Chinese economy. Additionally, the PBOC plans to launch a $500 billion yuan swap program to help backstop the Chinese stock market.
Of course, all this is happening only one week after the Federal Reserve greased the U.S. economy by cutting the Fed’s fund rate by 50 bps.
And speaking of the U.S., the country’s M2 money supply hit $21.170T as of September 2nd. The last time M2 was this high was February 2023.
What’s remarkable about this latest M2 print is that it doesn’t take into account last week’s rate cut, nor the cuts expected to come.
Make no mistake about it, all of this is wind in the sails of bitcoin and crypto. So strap in tight, because Q4 is going to be a crazy ride.
Rumors of a Polymarket Token; Celestia (TIA) Raises $100M
Finishing off with some alt-coin news, there’s rumors circulating that Polymarket might be launching its own native token.
Apparently, the predictions juggernaut is considering a new $50M funding round, so it’s thought that the new token will act as a carrot for potential investors (i.e. give us money and we’ll give you X of our new token).
Moreover, it’s further speculated that the token would be used by Polymarket’s users to validate the outcome of real-world events. Currently, Polymarket uses the UMA Protocol (i.e. an oracle) to validate these events.
And speaking of funding rounds, Celesia (TIA) just raised $100M in a round led by Bain Capital Crypto and other crypto VC heavyweights.
Labeled as the world’s first “modular” blockchain that focuses on providing data-availability services to other networks, TIA did a 10X to $20, from November 2023 to February of this year. But the token then bled to $4 by early September. At the time of this writing, TIA is trading at $6.29.
Let’s see if Celestia’s developers are able to capitalize on these new funds (i.e. achieve more technical breakthroughs), and see if the value of TIA follows accordingly.
In today’s edition, the following cryptocurrencies will be analysed & discussed:
- Vanar Chain (VANRY)
- Injective (INJ)
- Fetch ai (FET)
- Open Campus (EDU)
- Optimism (OP)
- Celestia (TIA)
Vanar Chain — VANRY/USDT
Over the past few weeks, we discussed VANRY and its Falling Wedge-like structure and how it needed to retest the blue level of $0.088 as support to follow through on its green path:
VANRY then Weekly Closed above the top of its blue pattern to retest it as support in an effort to confirm a breakout from it:
And here’s today’s chart:
Overall, VANRY followed its green path to completion, allowing for a breakout from the blue downtrending channel.
But perhaps most importantly, this turn of technical events has enabled a challenge of the crucial Macro Downtrend, dating to mid-March 2024.
VANRY is trying to muster its way beyond this Macro Downtrend and a Weekly Close beyond it would be a compelling trigger for price to challenge for a breakout into a new macro uptrend.
VANRY is on the cusp of a new macro uptrend, it just needs to Weekly Close above it to potentially kickstart the process.
Injective — INJ/USDT
A few weeks back, we spoke about INJ and how it was still consolidating inside its Downtrending Channel (light blue):
Since then, INJ successfully reclaimed the black level of $18.02 to enable a breakout from this Falling Wedge structure:
This breakout has resulted in a +21% move to the upside, revising the orange Range High at $23.46.
For INJ to enjoy trend continuation towards the red boxed resistance at around $27.50, it would need to Weekly Close above the orange Range High first.
Until then, INJ will always be potentially positioned for a pullback into the top of the Wedge it had broken out from, if price really needs to go for a post-breakout retest attempt to fully confirm the breakout.
These two blue circles summarise these two key levels:
The blue circle at the orange Range High emphasises the need for a Weekly Close above said level to rally higher, whereas the lower blue circle demonstrates the possibility for a post-breakout pullback.
Ultimately, while INJ has broken out from the structure, it still is sandwiched between the $18.02 Range Low (black) and the orange Range High at $23.46, therefore still technically consolidating.
While the breakout from the pattern means that a new uptrend is on the horizon, INJ could potentially spend a little bit of time in this aforementioned re-accumulation range first in preparation for building on its newfound momentum.
CLICK HERE to go Premium and read the rest of this week’s Market Analysis – Premium subs can read Rekt capital’s full report.
Sui versus Aptos
Aptos and Sui launched in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Both projects aim to scale to thousands of transactions per second.
Aptos is leaning towards DeFi adoption in regions such as Africa, while Sui seems to lean more toward gaming and metaverse applications.
Both have looked at the Solana playbook: Aptos has launched a phone and Sui will launch a gaming device.
TO READ THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE, CLICK HERE – “Sui versus Aptos”
Crypto Market News
- Kamala Harris has turned positive on crypto and AI after promising to encourage these industries. Source
- Donald Trump has paid for burgers with Bitcoin at Pubkey, a Bitcoin bar in New York City. Source
- BlackRock has released a report on Bitcoin calling it a “unique portfolio diversifier.” Source
- BlackRock has filed an amendment for its Bitcoin ETF to demand 12-hour BTC withdrawals from Coinbase. Source
- The SEC has approved options trading on BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF. Source
- MicroStrategy has completed a $1 billion convertible bond offering. Source
- Ark Invest sold $2.8 million worth of its spot Bitcoin ETF shares on Monday to rebalance its portfolio. Source
- Bitcoin miners Bitfarms and Riot Platforms have reached a settlement to end their dispute over governance. Source
- Singapore’s biggest bank DBS is planning to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum options trading. Source
- Germany’s DZ Bank is to give its 700 cooperative bank customers access to crypto. Source
- Germany’s Commerzbank is to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum trading through Crypto Finance, a subsidiary of Germany’s largest stock exchange operator. Source
- Ethereum’s core developers have agreed to split its upcoming ‘Pectra’ upgrade into a multi-phase rollout. Source
- Ethereum ETFs in the US have seen the largest outflows since late July. Source
- Revolut is in the advanced stages of creating its own stablecoin. Source
- American digital asset custodian BitGo has launched a new dollar-pegged stablecoin USDS. Source
- Crypto exchange Bitget has become the official crypto partner of La Liga, Spain’s top soccer league in a two-year multi-million-dollar deal. Source
Coins and Projects
- Coinbase’s cbBTC has become the third-largest wrapped BTC token after its first week. Source
- Coinbase’s cbBTC is coming soon to Solana in an announcement made at the Breakpoint 2024 conference. Source
- Circle has launched USDC on SUI—its 15th network integration. Source
- Circle has launched a range of on-chain compliance products. Source
- Binance has announced the upcoming launch of Moonbix, a play-to-earn game on Telegram’s Mini App. Source
- BNB Chain has launched a gasless stablecoin payments initiative. Source
- Solana has unveiled its second crypto phone Seeker due to launch in 2025. Source
- Solana has partnered with Google Cloud to launch a Web3 gaming development API called Gameshift. Source
- Sky, previously MakerDao, will launch its USDS stablecoin on Solana through Wormhole. Source
- Telegram has shifted its privacy policy and will start sharing user data with authorities in response to legal requests. Source
- TON may need to distance itself from Telegram according to Bitget who is predicting a “de-Telegramization” in the coming years. Source
- Celsius has paid $2.5 billion to creditors, sending its token skyrocketing by 300%. Source
- Celestia has secured $100 million in a funding round led by Bain Capital Crypto. Source
- Aethir has partnered with Filecoin to integrate GPU leasing services with decentralized storage to help solve the GPU shortage. Source
Macro News
- The Federal Reserve has cut US interest rates for the first time in 4 years by 0.5%. Source
- The US state of Louisiana has officially began accepting cryptocurrency payments. Source
- Gold hit a new all-time high of $2,629 per ounce on September 23. Source
- Canada’s Central Bank has canceled plans to launch a CBDC. Source
- Australia is preparing new guidance that will require cryptocurrency exchanges to have a financial services license. Source
- Australia’s central bank is focusing on a wholesale CBDC with a 3-year program. Source
- Turkey has decided not to move forward with additional taxes on stocks and crypto. Source
- China has announced a broad monetary stimulus package. Source
Thank you so much for your support, and I truly hope that today’s issue will give you insights needed to help you master your wealth.
If you are reading this it means you are on the free version of the Wealth Mastery Investor Report, which is great for news and tips on the crypto markets.
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See you next time!
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Wealth Mastery (Lark Davis, and the Wealth Mastery writing team) are not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is Wealth Mastery registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. Wealth Mastery is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.
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Hi! My name is Lark Davis!
I’m a cryptocurrency investor with years of experience and I’ve been making consistent profits in the crypto space.
I’m passionate about helping others do the same, so I run multiple educational channels on crypto investing.
