Arthur Hayes: “The Four Year Cycle is Dead.”

Good morning. Arthur Hayes thinks you need to strap in for an extended cycle. Then, gold touched 4,050 yesterday. Let’s discuss what it means for Bitcoin and the alts. And finally, our Chart of the Day attempts to provide some signal for our larger market cycle swings. 

All of that, plus . . . 

• a very logical Bitcoin Trade of the Day, 
• a BNB Season DEGEN Play of the Day, 
• and your Alpha Leak. 

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Chart of the Day

From bitcoinmagazinepro.com, this is the total number of Bitcoin addresses with balances over 100 BTC (i.e. $12.1M USD). This address count has been on a damn 55 degree angle since November 2024.

And who do we think controls these addresses? It’s got to be all the publicly traded companies that are stacking Bitcoin. Because, who else could it be? Seriously. 

And if our assumption is correct here, then our advice is to watch this metric closely, because it shows the earliest signs of when these public companies are either stacking or selling (i.e. since the on-chain data is immediately updated, as opposed to public announcements or SEC disclosure documents). 

Or in other words, don’t fade the data that reveals one of the biggest catalysts for this bull market.

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Trade of the Day

We think that Bitcoin is preparing to go higher, so our Trade of the Day is getting prepared to ride this next wave. Now here’s the play, down and dirty. Bitcoin is in limbo between this $120K to $124.5K range. So try to stack some cheaper fills, or wait for the breakout. 

These are the specific price points that we like. All have technical reasoning behind them. (1) Limit longs at $120K. (2) Limit longs at $118K. (3) Limit longs at $113.5K. Or, (4) market longs on a breakout at $124.5K.

Want more real-time setups and trade calls? Join our Inner Circle community.

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Alpha Leak

• Flying Tulip [FT] is one of the most anticipated dApps that’s launching on Sonic. The initial coin offering for FT should be happening this month. 
• four.meme [FORM] is Binance’s pump.fun. Right now, it’s beating pump.fun’s daily revenues, while having just one-fourth the total market cap. But here’s the problem, according to our research, about 79% of the tokens are allocated inside just one wallet, with 95% of tokens in only five wallets, and then there’s other red flags when it comes to the token in general. Our advice is to stay clear of this one. 
• Lighter, which now has the second highest 24h DEX perp volumes, is one of the most popular perp DEXes on the market. It competes head-to-head with Hyperliquid and ASTER. However, Lighter has not launched their native token yet, but it’s coming. And right now, you can farm Lighter points by trading on the exchange, and these points will be converted to an airdrop when it comes (i.e. expected at the end of 2025). 
• Monad [MON] teased their token airdrop on Monday. MON, and Monad’s mainnet launch, should be happening this year. Monad is a 10K TPS L1 with EVM parallel execution. 
• Pancake Swap [CAKE] is hot! CAKE is up 74% since the beginning of October. The reasons are two-fold. First, it’s BNB Season (i.e. Pancake Swap is the premier BNB DEX). And second, Pancake Swap has started a really aggressive CAKE burn mechanism, that’s targeting a 4% deflation rate. We flashed this signal to the Discord group on Oct. 6th, when CAKE was at $3.50. Now just FYI, there is some sticky resistance at $4.50, so consider buying the pullback instead of aping at a local high. 

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News Roundup

Arthur Hayes: “The Four Year Cycle is Dead.”

Arthur Hayes published a new essay to his substack today titled “Long Live the King!”. Here’s the TLDR. The four year cycle is dead, a new bear market is not around the corner, and it’s all due to a new wave of fiat liquidity that’s about to juice the markets. 

We tend to agree with Hayes on these points, as we think the crypto markets have most likely entered into an extended cycle. 

But in his essay, Hayes takes it a step further. He argues that crypto’s past crashes (i.e 2014, 2018, 2022), where prices plunged 70-80%, were not from the second-order effects of Bitcoin’s halvings, but rather because of tightening monetary policies. In other words, Hayes argues that it was a timing coincidence. Most of us were pointing to the supply-demand cool off as the culprit, when really it was monetary tightening the entire time. Interesting.   

Now if Hayes is correct about this last point, then obviously that means another major correction will come (i.e. assuming governments tighten their monetary policies again in the future), but don’t expect any of that for at least another full year. And that’s because the US Fed is projected to cut rates by another 100 bps over the next twelve months, Trump wants to juice the US economy, Japan’s new PM is reviving an Abenomics ultra-stimulus philosophy, and China’s is loosening their monetary belt as well. 

Hayes closed his essay with this: “Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future.” We agree. 

Gold Rips Past $4,050. Here’s What it Means for the Crypto. 

It’s called the “great debasement trade.” That’s what the Wall Street suits have named it. Basically, institutional and retail investors are piling into gold (and Bitcoin increasingly) in order to protect themselves from sovereign monetary debasement (i.e. excessive printing, high debt levels, and lowering interest rates). 

Now gold is the clear first-mover in this debasement trade. As of Wednesday, the asset touched $4,050 per ounce, which is a record all-time high. And astoundingly, gold has appreciated 21% in only the last 34 days. That’s an enormous move for the world’s largest asset by market cap. 

So here’s what it means for Bitcoin and our altcoins. Higher, anon. A lot of the data we’ve seen indicates that Bitcoin likes to follow gold’s moves anywhere between 60 to 100 days. Now gold started to rip at the very end of August. So a 60 day lag would mean Bitcoin begins to really rip at the end of October. A 100 day lag means Bitcoin rips at the beginning of December. 

We don’t know exactly when Bitcoin will do this, but we think it’s coming soon. And obviously, the more high quality alts should benefit as well. 

S&P to Launch Tokenized Crypto Index

The S&P Dow Jones Indices is set to launch a hybrid benchmark that merges major cryptos with related equities. The index will provide investors with fairly comprehensive exposure to the crypto / crypto stock market complex. But here’s what’s really wild. The index will be tokenized, and it won’t trade on the traditional stock markets. 

So let’s talk about this last point for just a minute. Think about the implications of this. 

The S&P Dow Jones Indices – which is one of the world’s leading financial index providers – is launching a token that captures a broad swath of the crypto and crypto adjacent stock market, but this token will only be traded on non-traditional blockchain rails. In other words, the S&P Dow Jones Indices is diving hard into crypto. Whoa. 

The new product will be called the S&P Digital Markets 50 Index, and the token will be called “dShare”. dShare will track 35 publicly listed crypto related firms (e.g.  blockchain tech, crypto infrastructure, and financial services) along with 15 leading cryptos. The minimum market cap for the cryptos is $300M, and the minimum for the stocks is $100M. So think the majors like BTC, ETH, COIN, and HOOD. 

No official launch date has been announced yet. This news broke on Tuesday. 

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Degen Play of the Day

Given its BNB season, CAKE is our DEGEN Play of the Day. Now, make sure you read the Alpha Leak above, so that you know what’s going on. Moreover, although it might go against the impulses of a hardened degen, we don’t think the move at this point is to ape into CAKE. Rather, it’s probably better to wait for a deeper pullback. 

So $3.00 has served as stiff resistance for about the past 10 months. If you can get fills there, that would be ideal. The next spot is just a bit above that at $3.20. And if you think that’s unattainable, you can try for a fill at $3.65. 

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Town Square

Win of the Day

Ladies and gentlemen, say hello to our very first back-to-back winner for our Win of the Day. It’s none other than Bellicus Deus. If you’ll remember, we featured him in last week’s newsletter, and Bellicus is a member in Lark’s Discord group. 

Well, we just had to feature Bellicus again, because look at this EPIC trade that he pulled off. Bellicus bought the BTC fear at $109K, and then unloaded into the BTC greed at $122.8K. Make no mistake about it, this is about as good as it gets when it comes to technical swing trading. 

A huge congratulation to Bellicus. Very well done sir!! 

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Legal Disclaimer

Wealth Mastery (Lark Davis, and the Wealth Mastery writing team) are not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is Wealth Mastery registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. Wealth Mastery is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.

You can find a full disclosure of all my crypto & venture investments here.