Bitcoin Hits $112,000

Good morning. Bitcoin just hit $112K. We discuss why, and where it goes from here. Pump.fun’s native token drops Saturday. The math says the $0.004 ICO price is too expensive. And your DEGEN Trade of the Day (XRP) is looking absolutely primed. 

All of that, plus your . . . 

• Chart of the Day. Check out this bullish long vs. short-term Bitcoin holder data. 
• Trade of the Day. A bit more conservative than the XRP setup, but don’t fade it. 
• Alpha Leak. 

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Chart of the Day

New data this week from Glassnode shows that both long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) Bitcoin holders are accumulating. LTH (i.e. blue line) are those who have held their coins for at least 155 days, and STH (i.e. pink line) are those who have held their coins for less than 155 days. 

Since June 22nd, LTH have accumulated an additional 13K BTC, and their collective stack is now at 14.7M coins, which is an all-time high. Within this same time, STH have accumulated an additional 60K BTC, and their collective stack is now at 2.3M coins. 

While the stats above are bullish, what’s most bullish is the LTH to STH ratio, relative to Bitcoin’s current price. Historically, LTH unload their bags to STH during times of market euphoria, when prices are peaking. But our current ratio is the exact opposite of that. Coins held by LTH are at all-time highs, while those held by STH are at relative lows. 

So when you combine that with current prices . . . well . . . I think you know what that means. 

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Trade of the Day

Spot buys on SOL at entries below the 200D EMA (i.e. at $158) is our trade of the day. At the time of this writing, this trade is open now, as current prices are just below this exponential moving average (i.e. in purple). 

SOL had been in a multi-month descending channel. After that broke, it entered into a pennant formation, and that snapped to the upside two days ago. Regarding the technicals, the RSI and MACD both look bullish, and we finally saw some decent buy volumes yesterday.

Now if Bitcoin pulls back from here, we’ll likely see the same thing for SOL. But over the longer term, we think entries below the 200D EMA are money printers, given where we’re at in the larger cycle, and that multiple US SOL ETFs should be launching soon. 

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Alpha Leak

• Cronos [CRO] is likely implicated in the news of Emirates Airlines partnering with Crypto.com, to allow the airline to accept payments in Bitcoin and other cryptos. It’s likely that the Cronos blockchain will facilitate the swaps between crypto and AED. And since CRO is used for gas fees, this all amounts to increased buy pressure on CRO. 
• Ethereum [ETH] corporate treasury plays are continuing to heat up. In fact, some say this is the beginning of some large capital rotation from BTC to ETH. And given ETH’s extreme price underperformance to BTC thus far, there could be a real opportunity here. 
• Fluid Protocol [FLUID] is expanding to Solana. Fluid Protocol operates as a multi-chain liquidity layer and DEX. So, a successful expansion to Solana should increase FLUID’s value. 
• GammaSwap’s [GS] yield tokens should be going live within the next few weeks. If they’re successful, it could boost the price of GS. At a high level, these yield tokens basically leverage market maker liquidity to transfer money from a DEX’s wallet to your wallet. 
• Hyperliquid [HYPE] is the L1 that Phantom Wallet has chosen for its new in-wallet perpetual futures trading platform. Think about it. Phantom Wallet users will soon be able to trade leveraged perpetuals all within their own wallets. And the entire thing is powered by Hyperliquid. This is extremely bullish for HYPE.  

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News Roundup

Bitcoin Reaches $112,000

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high yesterday at $112,000 on several exchanges, including Coinbase and Kraken. Now we’ve seen a very slight pull-back since then, but prices are currently within striking distance at just several hundred dollars under this new ATH.

At this point, the two big questions are: (1) what’s causing Bitcoin’s price to rise, and (2) where might it go from here?

1. It really is a perfect storm of catalysts. We’re in the goldilocks supply shock period right now, due to the 2024 halving. Spot BTC ETFs have pulled in a staggering $15B since mid-April. Publicly-traded companies are buying Bitcoin hand-over-fist. Trump is calling for the Federal Reserve to cut rates to 1%, or else Jerome Powell should resign. Global M2 continues to climb. And all signs are that the US will not be getting its fiscal house in order. 
2. It’s hard to know for certain, but the technical target on Bitcoin’s sideways range break is $120K in the shorter-term. Polymarket betters are saying there’s a 34% chance that this target hits in July, while the options market says there’s a 20% chance. Our view is Bitcoin hits $120K within the next thirty to sixty days. Now whether it consolidates for a few days to weeks, or starts ripping again today, is anyone’s guess. 

Pump.fun’s Native Token – PUMP – Launches Saturday 

Pump.fun is releasing PUMP, the protocol’s new native token, via an ICO this Saturday.

The ICO will release 33% of PUMP’s one trillion in total supply, with an initial price at $0.004 per token. Of the initial 33% to be released, a bit more than half (i.e. 54% of that 33%) is going towards a private sale, with the rest going to the public. All ICO tokens are fully unlocked on day one. 

This ICO comes as Pump.fun is transitioning into a decentralized social media platform that competes against the likes of TikTok and Twitch. PUMP will be used as a financial reward for those able to generate views and clicks. 

Now, if the ICO sells out, PUMP’s fully diluted market cap (FDV) will be $4B. Is that overpriced? Well, LetsBonk.fun holds 54% market share of the Solana memecoin launchpad sector, compared to Pump.fun’s 36%. And BONK’s FDV is $1.82B. So based on this comparison, PUMP’s FDV should be $1.21B, if you assume an apples to apples comparison based on each protocol’s respective market shares. 

A $1.21B FDV for PUMP means each token would be valued at $0.0012. Meaning, PUMP’s $0.004 ICO price might be too much. 

GMX Hacked for $42M

Bitcoin is at an ATH, but this is your reminder that you’ve still got to be careful out there. The popular DeFi perpetual exchange, GMX, was exploited yesterday for over $42M. 

Apparently, the hacker drained the funds from some GMX V1 pools via Arbitrum, and then bridged $9.6M to Ethereum, where it will likely get laundered through Tornado Cash. The other $32M is still on Arbitrum, under the hacker’s control. GMX has offered the hacker a 10% white-hat bounty in exchange for returning the other 90%. 

A total of $2.5B has been lost in crypto hacks and scams, in the first half of 2025. Remember that the safest way to store the bulk of your crypto is in hardware wallets or with reputable exchanges. 

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Degen Play of the Day

Degen trade of the day, or just a damn good technical setup? Who cares. XRP is breaking out from a massive multi-month symmetrical triangle right now. 

So what’s a good entry? Well, perhaps entries now are good to go, but if we get a slight retracement, or you see XRP use this triangle’s resistance as support, then even better. 

And how high could XRP go? Who knows. This is, after-all, XRP that we’re talking about. There’s chatter online about $5 to $6 dollar targets. But our perspective is to be safe and unload leveraged longs at the tip of this triangle, at $3.39. 

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Town Square

Question of the Day 

Our Question of the Day comes from Mike, who dropped this to us on X. Mike, thanks so much for this, and your question with regards to newbie exit strategies is an excellent one. 

The best advice I could offer a new crypto investor is to not fall prey to the market’s euphoria phase. Now rest assured, the euphoria phase is coming. And it’s basically the job of any profitable investor to both not get caught in it, and to sell into it. 

So how would I do that, practically? Well, let’s assume that I (a) wanted to hold my Bitcoin bag long-term, (b) didn’t want to continue buying Bitcoin or any altcoins at the market / cycle top, and (c) wanted to sell off all my altcoins into the euphoria / cycle top. Assuming these were my goals, here’s what I would do: 

1. Make a written plan now, detailing at which prices I would stop DCAing into Bitcoin and any altcoins. This would force me to think hard about where I essentially think prices will begin to become overpriced. 
2. In my plan, I would write down the specific price levels where I would start unloading my altcoin bags. Again, this helps me crystalize where taking profits makes sense. 
3. Building off (2), I would start unloading my alt bags at price levels that are in profits for me, but lower than where the larger market believes prices are going. I would get my cost basis out early. I would sell in price tranches. I would keep reminding myself that altcoins get absolutely annihilated in bear markets. And to this last point, Lark has stated multiple times that the only bag he plans on holding into the next cycle is Bitcoin. 

We hope this helps, Mike!

Now let us know your question, comment, lesson, or a win that you want to share. Just post it across any of our communication channels. We’ll be watching for it. 

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Legal Disclaimer

Wealth Mastery (Lark Davis, and the Wealth Mastery writing team) are not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is Wealth Mastery registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. Wealth Mastery is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.

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