Bitcoin is Running for U.S. President 

OpenAI

In This Issue

  • David shares his thoughts on Bitcoin and 2024, Tether mining bitcoin in Uruguay, the bitcoin miner tax hike likely dying & centralized exchanges.
  • Rekt Capital has the latest technical analysis for you on the market. 
  • Erik has a report on Ethereum’s MEV-Burn Proposal.
  • This week’s trending coins by Rebecca.

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The News Now

Bitcoin and 2024

We’ve come a long way, folks. 

The US 2024 presidential campaign season is in full swing, and most of the contenders have expressed an opinion about bitcoin. Let’s review each candidate’s position and discuss some broader implications. 

Democrats

Joe Biden: The first two years of Biden’s presidency were uneventful. But by mid-2022, Biden’s SEC seemingly embarked on an anti-crypto warpath, with enforcement actions initiated against Coinbase, Gemini, and dozens of other companies. Then in March, Biden proposed a 30% tax hike on US-based crypto miners. 

Bitcoin is Running for U.S. President  - - 2024

RFK at Bitcoin 2023. Getty Images. 

Robert F. Kennedy: RFK just gave a keynote address at Bitcoin 2023. TLDR, he’s pro-bitcoin. RFK said bitcoin is an important preservation tool for civil liberties, and if elected, he’d ensure:

  1. An individual’s right to self-custody,
  2. Industry-neutral energy regulations, and
  3. That the US remains the global hub for crypto innovation. 

Republicans

Donald Trump: From his tweets, Trump seemingly believes bitcoin is a scam and a threat to the US dollar. In 2018, Trump apparently told US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin to “go after bitcoin.” By 2020, Mnuchin was working with FinCEN on crypto rules to tamp down on illicit activity. Despite all this, several of Trump’s other aides and appointees appeared to be pro-crypto, including Anthony Scaramucci, Mick Mulvaney, and Hester Peirce. 

Ron DeSantis: Desantis recently declared on Twitter Spaces with Elon Musk that using bitcoin is an individual’s right, and that CBDCs would never happen under his watch. As Florida’s governor, DeSantis did sign legislation that defined virtual currencies and codified the right to trade crypto without a license. In March, his office introduced legislation that would effectively ban the use of CBDCs in Florida. 

Vivek Ramaswamy: Vivek also gave a keynote address at Bitcoin 2023. He described bitcoin as an important “decentralized alternative” to the US dollar. Vivek claims the deepest understanding of bitcoin and blockchain technology out of any other presidential candidate. If elected, he says he’ll cut the Federal Reserve’s headcount by 90% and overhaul the SEC. 

OK, here’s my take. 

First, I don’t see a bitcoin political divide as much as I see a generational one. The candidates most antagonistic (Biden and Trump) are the oldest, while those indicating support are all younger. This age differential is approximate to crypto adoption rates by age in the US, where a crypto user is 3 to 4 times more likely to be under 55. 

So for me, I view all of this as long-term bullish, with all upside and little downside in the short-term. Bitcoin can’t be killed. So even if an “anti-bitcoin” candidate is elected in 2024, the industry will just continue to migrate overseas until conditions swing favorable again in the US. And given the stark generational differences, the odds of a pro-bitcoin candidate taking office increase as time passes. So whether it’s 2024 or later, imagine what happens to price when that person finally does get elected.  

Breaking: Tether to Mine Bitcoin in Uruguay 

We’ve got another big Tether story for you. This one is breaking news. 

Bitcoin is Running for U.S. President  - - 2024

Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer in the world, with a total supply of over 83B USDT, and currently ranked #3 in total crypto market cap, has formally announced that they’ve partnered with an undisclosed Uruguay-based company to begin mining bitcoin in that country. Hot damn! 

This announcement comes after two other recent Tether disclosures:

  1. They HODL a cool 52,000 BTC; and
  2. They’ve publicly revealed a plan to DCA up to 15% of their monthly net profits into bitcoin. 

Judging from their press release, Tether selected Uruguay in part because 94% of the country’s energy comes from renewable sources (mostly wind and solar). Their press release also indicates a broader shift by the company, with an expanded focus that includes financial innovation, renewable energy production, and efforts to decentralize and support the bitcoin network. 

30% Tax Hike on US Miners Likely Dead Under Debt Ceiling Deal

You know that 30% energy tax hike on US crypto miners mentioned previously? Well say, “adiós.”

Apparently, it’s dead in the water per the terms of a new debt ceiling package, which is set for a formal vote today in the U.S. Congress. It sounds like the miner tax hike became a bargaining chip during debt ceiling negotiations between Biden and top-ranking Republicans, with the Biden team eventually agreeing to drop the proposal in exchange for other debt ceiling concessions, presumably. Whew! 

Bitcoin is Running for U.S. President  - - 2024

Keep in mind that the tax hike isn’t dead until the bill gets the votes and is signed into law by Biden. So perhaps it’s too early to celebrate. But screw it, I’m celebrating. 

Centralized Exchange Landscape Keeps Shifting

There appears to be a new development almost daily with regards to major crypto exchanges making big moves on the global stage. But given the borderless nature of crypto, the speed at which the industry moves, and the constantly evolving regulatory frameworks within each country, this makes sense. 

So here’s an update on changes happening with several big crypto exchanges across the World. 

  1. Houbi, a crypto exchange originally founded in China, has formally applied for a virtual asset exchange license in Hong Kong. Company officials are stating that they’ll be providing retail trading services to Hong Kong clients starting June 1. 
  2. Most of the major Indian-based crypto exchanges appear to be on the ropes, financially. Several CEOs have admitted to financially dire conditions, with companies looking for savings anywhere they can, in an attempt to push their financial runways through the next bull market cycle. Apparently, the pain all started when the Indian government announced a 30% tax on crypto profits in early 2022. 
  3. The joint venture “Gulf Binance” (Binance and Gulf Innova) has received regulatory approval from Thai authorities to launch a regulated crypto exchange within the country. The aim is to have a new exchange up and running before the end of 2023. Interestingly, Gulf Innova is a subsidiary of Gulf Energy, the latter of which is one of Thailand’s largest private energy producers.

Market Analysis by Rekt Capital

In today’s edition of the Rekt Capital Newsletter, the following cryptocurrencies will be analysed and discussed:

  • Ethereum (ETH)
  • Fetch ai (TET)
  • Polygon (MATIC)
  • Chainlink (LINK)
  • Thorchain (RUNE)
  • SushiSwap (SUSHI)

Ethereum — ETH/USD

Bitcoin is Running for U.S. President  - - 2024

Ethereum is teetering around the orange box top, still indecisive on which path it will take.

Monthly Close above the orange box top and ETH would follow through on Step 2.

However, a Monthly Close below the orange box top and technically ETH could still drop to follow Step 1.

Technically, two months ago ETH broke above the red resistance of $1680 but never true retested it as support; sure, this May ETH had downside wicked towards that level, but never actually retested it in a picture-perfect way.

As a result, that retest has a caveat and if ETH can’t break beyond the orange box top, then there is scope for another retest in the future.

Fetch ai — FET/USDT

Bitcoin is Running for U.S. President  - - 2024

Strong reaction from the blue level as FET looks potentially set to Monthly Close above blue support.

In the past, Monthly Closes relative to the blue level have been quite important, as they have dictated reversals or entire breakdowns, as per previous yellow circles.

Of course, this month, FET has satisfied two key support areas; the green box below and the blue level locally.

To contrast this, FET in mid-2021 did something similar, though Monthly Closed below blue in doing so, however was able to reclaim blue quickly upon reaction.

Technically, FET is protecting both support regions well, which means that a Monthly Close above blue could set FET up for a range-bound bounce at least, with scope of up to +37% towards the black Range High above.

As long as FEET holds this blue level in this fashion, that bounce could occur.

However, dropping below blue and turning it into resistance on the lower timeframes would instead set FET up for a revisit of the green area below.


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MEV-Burn Proposal: ETH Even Scarcer by Erik

Ethereum developers have proposed a rigorous solution for the battles that break out from time to time because of mempool-related arbitrage. The solution? They will burn the ETH that MEV traders currently pocket! While the primary goal of this proposal is to make the tip of the Ethereum chain more stable, the not unwelcome byproduct is that Ethereum will become even more scarce/deflationary. 

What is MEV Again?

A refresher on Maximal Extractable Value (MEV): it is the additional profit that validators can scoop up while adding blocks to a blockchain. They can maximize the money they make from block creation by reordering transactions within blocks and even inserting new ones. The classic example of how validators make money is called a sandwich attack: a so-called searcher (a bot) detects a large pending trade on a decentralized exchange and places a trade right before and right after it – and pockets the created price difference.

While MEV is not always a problem, it is a form of taxation on normal users. They pay higher gas fees or pay slightly more on a dex for their coins than they would otherwise have. Also, it can create instability, as we will see.

A Problem with MEV: MEV Spikes

MEV is a small industry. Currently, hundreds of thousands of dollars per day are squeezed from blockchain transactions by MEV bots. (see MEV-Boost.pics). 

Bitcoin is Running for U.S. President  - - 2024

As you can see, the average MEV payment (the above graph depicts only blocks created through MEV Boost by Flashbots) is around 0.05 ETH per block. But it can spike violently to an insane 1 ETH per block on average during a few hours (remember that Ethereum produces a block roughly every 12 seconds). Within these periods of market upheaval, there have been Ethereum blocks where a lucky validator squeezed more than 100 ETH from a single block!

When do these spikes occur? Let’s say there is a launch/public offering of a popular new token or NFT project. At such a time of high traffic and congestion, validators can benefit from their ‘inside knowledge’ and front-run other people’s transactions.

As you can see from the two huge spikes in the above graph, they happened during the FTX implosion of November 2022 and the temporary de-pegging of stablecoin USDC in March 2023.

Solving MEV Instability

It’s these spikes that worry the Ethereum community and it’s why devs have been working hard on a new and more fair system of MEV. 

Proposer builder separation (PBS) was already in the works: a fundamental design change of the Ethereum consensus mechanism. It isolates the building of blocks from transaction validation. It will decentralize the building of blocks.

Because we might have to wait a few years for the implementation of PBS, MEV-Boost is what we have to work with: a sort of proof-of-concept of the proposer builder separation. It’s an iteration of Flashbots, which seeks to democratize MEV opportunities. Flashbots lets validators outsource the work of building the most profitable block to parties called searchers (traders/trading bots) and relayers. Instead of passing through the public mempool, searcher transactions go to a relayer, where they are not visible to anyone. The relayer validates the transaction bundles and sends them to the validator, who can pick a block. The validator can’t see the transactions; it only sees how profitable different blocks are.

ETH in the Lion’s Den

But MEV-Boost still leaves plenty of room for undesirable MEV spikes, as we have seen. MEV Burn will have to get rid of those. MEV Burn is not to be confused with the ‘common’ burning of ETH which has happened since the EIP-1559 update from 2021. 

What will the MEV-Burn proposal tackle? The nasty side effects of the MEV spikes. During these spikes, MEV rewards can be so big that virtual fights break out over the bounty. 

Compare it to throwing a huge piece of meat into a lion’s den. The big male lions will fight over it, leaving nothing for the rest. In the same way, advanced MEV players, in their fight over a hugely profitable block, will try to denial-of-service attack each other and will attempt to reorg the chain. This is not good for the stability of the chain: it makes newly created blocks less final.

Burn and Pump Our Bags

The above issues are why Ethereum wants to get rid of the MEV rewards altogether. But won’t this burning rub the players who currently get rich from MEV the wrong way? Well, maybe. But they don’t call the shots. Plus, burning the rewards will make Ethereum more deflationary. And that will likely benefit the price of their ETH too. It is estimated that MEV-Burn could roughly double the deflationary rate of Ether, burning an extra 200 thousand to 400 thousand ETH per year, taking care of an additional deflationary effect of 0.2% per year. In the long run, that’s a lot. Want to learn more details? View this Bankless podcast with Ethereum developers Justin Drake and Dom.

Wen MEV-Burn?

It may sound straightforward enough: let’s burn some ETH. But it will likely take four years or so to be implemented. Why? Because Proposer-Builder Separation needs to be implemented first. This architectural overhaul is scheduled to go live in the splurge phase of the Ethereum roadmap. That’s quite a few years in the future. In the meantime, the MEV bots can enjoy those sweet profits.

Conclusion

The MEV Burn proposal has become a new and important part of Ethereum’s roadmap. It’s reassuring to watch the community address the pitfalls associated with MEV spikes and look for solutions. It’s yet another signal that Ethereum seems to be on the right path of continual improvement and innovation. Because Ethereum is the chain that is most in demand, new types of challenges pop up there first and force Ethereum devs to be at the forefront of blockchain technology.


In Case You Missed it by Rebecca

Crypto Market News

  • Bankrupt Bitcoin miner Core Scientific says its restructuring plan could be completed by September. Source
  • Brave browser has added token-gated video calls into its existing Brave Talk video service allowing users to use NFTs to manage access to calls. Source
  • Do Kwon’s bail has been revoked and he remains in jail in Montenegro. Source
  • Coinbase has published a roadmap for its Base network outlining its path to mainnet launch. Source
  • Sam Altman’s Worldcoin has raised $115M in a Series C funding round led by Blockchain Capital. Source
  • Beijing has launched a whitepaper for Web3 innovation and development with the goal of investing a minimum of $14M every year until 2025. Source
  • Hong Kong’s police force has launched CyberDefender, a metaverse platform with the aim to educate the public about potential dangers. Source
  • The Chinese city of Zhengzhou has announced a series of proposals to support metaverse companies in the region, allocating $1.42 billion to the industry. Source
  • Arthur Hayes is predicting no new all-time high for Bitcoin in 2023, but 2024 will be a different story. Source
  • The Bitcoin Standard author, Saifedean Ammous, is joining El Salvador’s National Bitcoin Office as an economic advisor. Source
  • Japan’s largest airline All Nippon Airways has launched an NFT marketplace. Source

Coins and Projects

  • Bitcoin has overtaken Solana to become the second-most popular NFT blockchain thanks to BRC-20 tokens. Source
  • Bitcoin Ordinals inscriptions have surpassed 10M just days after the Ordinals creator left the project. Source
  • Bitcoin now has a dollar-backed stablecoin for the Ordinals ecosystem with the launch of BRC-20 token, Stably USD. Source
  • Bitcoin HODLers holding BTC for at least a year has reached a record 68%, whilst 55% have been held for at least two years and 40% for three years. Source
  • An Ethereum wallet has reawakened after 8 years moving 8,000 ETH in just two minutes. Source
  • A MakerDAO proposal, if approved would more than double the DAI savings rate to 3.33%. Source
  • Arbitrum-based Jimbos protocol was hacked for $7.5M just three days after its V2 launch. Source
  • Circle has launched its euro-based stablecoin EUROC on Avalanche. Source
  • Tether has announced the launch of a Bitcoin mining operation in Uruguay. Source 
  • Binance has launched a new NFT loan feature allowing users to borrow crypto using their NFTs as collateral. Source
  • Binance is working on re-entering the Japanese market after beginning the process of establishing a new and fully regulated subsidiary. Source
  • PancakeSwap is venturing into GameFi after partnering with BNB protocol Mobox to create a tower defense game with CAKE token rewards. Source
  • Cardano’s total-value locked (TVL) has skyrocketed 230% in 2023 and has outperformed all protocols year-to-date. Source
  • Cardano DEX Minswap has seen volume spikes driven by memecoin madness from SNEK and BANK tokens. Source
  • Formula 1’s leading ticket issuer Platinium Group is launching NFT race tickets minted on Polygon. Source
  • Solana co-founder has said in an interview it plans to grow between 10-100X primarily through small business and infrastructure partnerships. Source
  • Fantom has withdrawn almost 450,000 MULTI and 1,363 ETH from a liquidity pool on SushiSwap as Multichain is suffering from withdrawal delays. Source
  • Fantom will reward projects with 15% of token fees as part of its dApp Gas Monetization Program. Source
  • Ava Labs has launched AvaCloud, a no-code Web3 launchpad. Source
  • Energy Web has started a sustainability registry for Bitcoin miners called Green Proofs of Bitcoin. Source

Macro News

  • US President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy signed an agreement to temporarily suspend the debt ceiling and cap some federal spending. Source
  • Florida governor Ron DeSantis has announced his bid for US presidency during a Twitter Spaces with Elon Musk and promises to protect Bitcoin if he gets the job. Source
  • Nvidia has hit a $1 trillion market cap and joined the exclusive club along with Apple, Microsoft, Aramco, Alphabet, and Amazon. Source
  • Japan is set to launch tougher crypto anti-money laundering measures from June 1. Source
  • UK inflation dropped sharply in April to 8.7% down from 10.1% in March but core CPI came in at 6.8%—the highest since 1992. Source
  • Germany has officially entered a technical recession after two-quarters of negative GDP—the economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2023 and 0.5% in Q4 2022. Source
  • The European Central Bank (ECB) has finalized prototypes for its CBDC ahead of its decision later in the year on whether it will bring the vision to life. Source
  • The ECB’s European Systemic Risk Board has warned about the risk of a bank run on stablecoins. Source

Visa and Santander have signed up for Brazil’s CBDC pilot project which will begin in mid-June. Source


Final Notes

China’s big crypto news, Nvida explodes, and lots of bitcoin price charts. Watch the video below for everything you need to know. 👇

Lark Video

Thank you so much for your support, and I truly hope that today’s issue will give you insights needed to help you master your wealth.

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Join the Wealth Mastery Investor Report

By Lark Davis

Combining cutting edge insider insights and done-for-you market analysis to deliver crypto investors the best opportunities to grow their wealth, stay ahead of the curve, and avoid costly mistakes! We cover DeFi, NFTs, Altcoins, Technical Analysis and more! 

Join the Wealth Mastery Investor Report

By Lark Davis

Combining cutting edge insider insights and done-for-you market analysis to deliver crypto investors the best opportunities to grow their wealth, stay ahead of the curve, and avoid costly mistakes! We cover DeFi, NFTs, Altcoins, Technical Analysis and more! 

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