Bitcoin to $107K? Evidence Says Maybe. 

Good morning. Is Bitcoin going to $107K? There’s some evidence suggesting that it might, so let’s discuss. Then, the perp DEX competition is THE SCENE in crypto right now. Here’s your latest updates.

All of that, plus your . . . 

• BTC Trade of the Day. This is a gift, people. 
• A PEPE Degen Play of the Day. Let’s get you ahead of the herd. 
• Alpha Leak. We’ve got a couple bangers for you. 

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Chart of the Day

From Glassnode, this is Bitcoin’s “Supply Last Active Age Band” chart. It’s a visualization that tracks the percentage of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply that has remained dormant (i.e. unmoved on-chain) for longer than the time periods listed (i.e. 1+ yrs, 2+, 3+, and 5+). These bands are then overlaid against Bitcoin’s price history (i.e. in black).

Essentially, the chart shows whether long-term holders are accumulating or distributing Bitcoin, as rising percentages indicate holding, while declining percentages indicate selling. And as you can see, all four age bands have been in distribution mode since late 2024, with the most aggressive distribution coming from shorter term holders (i.e. 1+ & 2+ yrs). 

Now look at how these lines corresponded with Bitcoin’s price cycle tops in both 2017 and 2021. They’re inversely correlated. This therefore suggests that we’re potentially approaching a cycle top right now. However, what’s particularly interesting is that our current age band declines are much shallower than in years past. This indicates reduced volatility in Bitcoin’s price overall, compared to previous cycles, and that makes sense due to institutional involvement. 

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Trade of the Day

Bitcoin is your Trade of the Day. When the markets are looking ugly, it is oftentimes best to double down on the strongest assets. And it pays to have conviction and steady hands when others are scared. 

Now as you’ll see in our first news story, the big debate is whether Bitcoin can hold $112K, or if we’re going lower, possibly to $107K. 

So here’s our play right now. Just take both opportunities. You’re good to go long on Bitcoin now with prices around $112K. But also save some dry powder for limit orders at $107K, just in case. Perhaps a 50/50 split between $112K and $107K limit orders is the best approach at this point. 

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Alpha Leak

• ASTER now has 150% higher 24h trading volumes than Hyperliquid. That’s right. 150%. More on this in our second news story. 
• Hyperliquid [HYPE] has been selected by Metamask to power the platform’s in-wallet perps (i.e. under development). Thus, this Metamask feature will only increase the demand for HYPE. 
• Plasma [XPL] is launching its mainnet and token today! Plasma is a new protocol that provides stablecoin infrastructure for global finance. 
• Portal to Bitcoin’s [PTB] mainnet launch has been announced for October 13th. Portal to Bitcoin is a custodyless Bitcoin cross-chain infrastructure swap protocol. 
• Solana [SOL] currently has a higher 24h app revenue than Ethereum. And yet, Solana’s market cap is about one-fifth the size. Think in terms of asymmetric bets. 

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News Roundup

Bitcoin to $107K? Evidence Says Maybe. 

Bitcoin’s crash below $112K earlier this week has some analysts thinking that a further dip to $107K could be next. Now, I wish I could wave this all off to unnecessary worry, but unfortunately, there does appear to be some evidence to back this thinking. 

So here’s what the $107K crowd is arguing: 

1. Bitcoin is now trading below both the 50 and 100D SMAs. This serves as needed caution for the bulls. These SMA lines are coming in at $114.4K and $113.2K, respectively. 
2. “Buy the dip” mentions are high on social media. In fact, they’re at their highest levels in almost one month. And according to Santiment, that counterintuitively serves as a contrarian red flag. Meaning, oftentimes, the bottom is in once retail has capitulated, and retail buying the dip is not capitulation. 
3. The largest liquidity clusters are at $107K. Liquidity clusters are areas where a lot of limit buy and sell orders are sitting. And for several reasons, price often finds itself hitting these clusters, before moving onwards. 

I find (3) to be the most persuasive, and everything above is a helpful reminder to keep your leverage low, because a move to $107K is most definitely possible. 

But having said all that, my bet is $112K holds, and we go higher from here. With gold and the stock markets at all time highs, and given our proximity to Q4, my sense is that a recovery from $112K is most likely. However, I am keeping my leverage low, just in case I’m wrong. 

Aster Surpasses Hyperliquid in 24h Trading Volumes 

We reported Monday that the new crypto meta is perp DEXes, and that meta is full steam ahead as of today. 

Now you can check out DefiLlama’s 24h perp volume rankings for the latest numbers, but at the time of this writing, most of the action is concentrated into the following four protocols: Aster, Hyperliquid, edgeX, and Lighter. 

However, what’s astounding is that Aster has departed from the pack by generating $25.7B in volumes over the past 24 hours, while the other three mentioned above have done between $6 to $10B each. Wow. Now, Aster’s ascendancy is attributed to a backing by former Binance CEO CZ and YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs), along with traders chasing after an ASTER token airdrop. 

Moreover, the big trade that everyone is piling into right now is ASTER, as the token is up more than 300% in just the last five days. This no doubt is the crypto sub-sector to watch right now. 

Tether Seeking $500B Valuation 

Tether made news this week, as the company is chasing a $500B valuation by offering private investors 3% company equity for $20B in cash. If the company achieves such a valuation, it will make Tether one of the highest-valued private companies in the world. 

But what’s even more interesting is how Tether has become a “quasi-sovereign” player. Meaning, the company was the 7th largest buyer of US debt in Q2 2025, with its purchase of $8B in T-bills. Tether’s current market cap sits at $162B, and roughly 80% of that is pegged one-to-one with US treasuries. 

Therefore, as Tether increases its exposure to US debt, so too will the US government’s vested interest in Tether increase. 

Moreover, expect Tether’s launch of the USAT, which is to be the company’s US regulated dollar stablecoin, to sail smoothly past US regulators. Tether strategically poached former White House crypto official Bo Hines to lead the launch, and the company is aiming for an official USAT launch by the end of 2025.

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Degen Play of the Day

As much as I wanted to go with ASTER here, I just couldn’t bring myself to do it. Even the degens need to think twice before longing the top. So in the spirit of being a more thoughtful degen, I present to you, PEPE. A coin that’s currently getting no love, no attention, no mindshare, nothing. 

And the price reflects it. PEPE right now is at a multi-month bottom, resting on a major triangle support line. But it’s this apparent bottom, and position within the triangle, that gets us interested in the frog.  

So we like the PEPE long here, as this might be a good chance to get ahead of the herd. However, it’s probably best to fill up a fat spot bag here, as it could be a while before we see a good pump. So this way, you’ll be able to side-step any pesky funding fees from eating into your profits. 

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Town Square

Win of the Day

We’ve got another Win of the Day for you. And this time, it came from Jesse, who works as the leading editor for Lark’s Discord group, and is the Head of Research at Wealth Mastery. 

Jesse absolutely smashed this ASTER 5X long this past weekend, as he was able to scoop a cheap fill at $0.96, and then unload his bags at $1.40. Fantastic trade Jesse! And thank you so much for all that you do for Lark’s Discord group. 

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Legal Disclaimer

Wealth Mastery (Lark Davis, and the Wealth Mastery writing team) are not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is Wealth Mastery registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. Wealth Mastery is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.

You can find a full disclosure of all my crypto & venture investments here.