Bitcoin, Where You Going? 

GM friends. 

Bitcoin is fighting to hold the lower $60Ks. So let’s explore if it’s up only from here, or more time for riding the pain train. 

Pour that coffee and have a chair, because here’s your mid-week crypto update.  ☕️📰

Here’s what’s in today’s issue:

• David shares his thoughts on Bitcoin’s price, Solana launching Blinks, Solana’s accelerator raised $60M & Julian Assange is free.
• Rekt Capital has the latest technical analysis for you on the market. 
• Erik has an article on Decentralized Social Networks and SocialFi.
• In case you missed it by Rebecca.

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Where Does Bitcoin’s Price Go From Here? 

It’s been a bloody few weeks for bitcoin and the broader crypto markets. 

After touching $72K in early June, bitcoin has suffered three consecutive weeks of falling prices, with crypto’s largest asset currently hanging onto the lower $60Ks. 

Although prices are still within a channel that started in March, everyone wants to know where bitcoin goes from here, in the short to medium terms. So, let’s explore the latest bull and bear cases to see if we can get a better idea of what happens next. 

Up Only 

The first bull argument is the current setup on bitcoin’s hash ribbons indicator chart. 

This indicator compares bitcoin’s price with its hash rate across both the 30 and 60 day moving averages (DMA). Historically, when the 30DMA crosses back above the 60DMA – with a corresponding price increase – bitcoin’s price then usually makes a very strong move to the upside.  

Keep your eyes on this indicator over the next few weeks, because it appears that the 30DMA might soon cross back above the 60. And if that happens with a price increase, it will flash a “buy” signal that has historically proved reliable. 

The second bull argument is bitcoin’s current RSI, or relative strength index reading. The RSI is a trend-following indicator that measures if an asset is “overbought” or “oversold”. 

Dips below 30 on bitcoin’s RSI indicate that it’s oversold, and that a bigger price move north might be in order. 

On Monday, bitcoin’s RSI hit 25. The last time the reading was this low was in August 2023, just two months before bitcoin ripped from the $20Ks to the $70Ks. 

More Pain Train

Turning to the bears, the first argument comes from Markus Thielen at 10x Research. 

Thielen believes that bitcoin might be in the midst of a double-top price pattern, and that if followed to fruition, price could bottom out somewhere between $45K to $50K. 

Double-top patterns are marked by two approximately equal price peaks, with a modest price dip in between. The dip helps form the pattern’s “neckline”. If price breaks below the neckline after the second peak, prices can head further south, typically equal the distance between the peaks and the neckline. 

The bears’ second argument is that more downside price action is imminent because the market will soon need to absorb selling from both Mt. Gox and the German government. 

On Monday, Mt. Gox trustees announced that they will begin distributing bitcoin back to their creditors in the first week of July. A total of 141K bitcoin are slated for distribution. It’s not clear how heavy the selling pressure might be, because creditors have had the opportunity to sell their bankruptcy claims for several years now. 

And on Tuesday, German police transferred 750 bitcoin, valued at $46M, to Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp. The assumption is that these bitcoin will soon be sold. This transfer follows others made by the German authorities on June 19th and 20th. At this time, it’s thought that the German government still holds about 45,000 seized bitcoin. 

Solana Launches “Blinks” 

On Tuesday, Solana dropped a new feature called “Blinks”, and the idea is to make crypto as accessible as any website or social media platform.

Developed in coordination between the Solana Foundation and Dialect, Blinks allows anyone to transact on Solana, directly from any website where a URL can be shared. “Blinks” stands for blockchain links. And these blinks allow anyone to link to on-chain transactions. 

So, suppose you have an NFT that you want to advertise and sell to your social media followers. Well, Blinks allows you to post that NFT as an on-chain transaction to your profile. But what your followers see is a crisp post with a one-click icon, which allows them to purchase the NFT without leaving the website. 

Developers say that Blinks can be customized for crypto governance voting, donations, minting, swaps, and payments. 

Solana Accelerator Colosseum Raises $60 Million

In other Solana news, startup accelerator Colosseum announced Tuesday that they’ve raised $60 million for investing in early-stage projects. 

Colosseum is a company that runs hackathons for the Solana ecosystem. The company plans to invest the $60 million in the winning teams of its future hackathons. 

The $60 million in raised funds comes from various venture investors who are looking to get a piece of the next big thing in crypto. Colosseum says that their latest funding round was over-subscribed, and it’s a signal from the investment crowd that there’s serious potential for Solana and the larger Solana ecosystem. 

So far, Colosseum has funded 11 startups with $2.75M.  

Julian Assange is Free; Bitcoiner Helps Pay Travel Expenses

We’re happy to report that Julian Assange is a free man. And the icing on the cake is that bitcoiners helped him. 

Earlier this week, news broke that WikiLeaks co-founder Julian Assange reached a plea deal with the U.S. Department of Justice, whereby Assange would plead guilty to one felony espionage charge in exchange for time already served (i.e. his freedom). 

If you’re unfamiliar with Julian Assange’s story, then I encourage you to read up on it. 

Well, news outlets are now reporting that Assange is back home in Australia with his family. However, he incurred $520K in travel expenses as authorities wouldn’t allow him to take a commercial airliner home, but also demanded that he pay for a private chartered flight. 

So donations poured in. The largest donor was an anonymous bitcoiner who contributed more than 8 bitcoin to Assange’s travel fund. The entire bill was covered by donors. 

But WikiLeaks, bitcoin, and Ethereum have a longer history together. Bitcoiners donated to WikiLeaks during the mid-2010s, when the organization was cut off from the traditional banking system. And a DAO raised 16,500 ETH in 2022 to help pay for Assange’s legal expenses. 

This is what it’s all about, people. 

We focus a lot on price and making a good living for ourselves, and there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that. But damn, it’s always wonderful to be reminded of the deeper reasons for why bitcoin and crypto were created in the first place. 

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In today’s edition, the following cryptocurrencies will be analysed & discussed:

• Arweave (AR)
• Coti (COTI)
• Avalanche (AVAX)
• Kyber Network (KNC)
• Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
• Theta Token (THETA)

Arweave — AR/USDT

Last week, we spoke about how AR was downside deviating below its Macro Downtrend as part of a Macro Retest, with scope for finishing the month as a downside wick.

Here is last week’s analysis:

And here is today’s analysis:

Arweave has recovered +31% to the upside after deviating below the Macro Downtrend and is right back above it, having produced a long downside wick in the end.

AR is now therefore positioning itself for a positive Monthly Close to essentially confirm a successful Macro Retest of the Macro Downtrend as new support.

This retesting has been taking place for three straight months now.

More, with this recent successful retest, AR has returned into the Monthly Bull Flag as well, finding its way above the base of the flagging pattern.

Monthly Close just like this and this will confirm not just a successful retest of the Macro Downtrend but a successful reclaim of the Monthly Bull Flag which could entail a future breakout to challenge the $43 (black) highs again.

Coti — COTI/USDT

Last week we spoke about how COTI needed to make significant strides to reclaim the light blue area as new support going into July.

COTI has rebounded but not enough thus far:

However, there is potential for COTI to at least Monthly Close inside the light blue area which could be enough to classify this recent downside deviation below it as a retest attempt.

Ideally, a Monthly Close above the light blue box would remove all doubt when it comes to a successful retest but a Close inside the box may just be enough to preserve the box as support.

CLICK HERE to go Premium and read the rest of this week’s Market Analysis – Premium subs can read Rekt capital’s full report.

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Decentralized Social Networks and SocialFi

Decentralized Social networks (DeSoc) and SocialFi combine the most profound and the slightly shadier elements of crypto.

On the one hand, they can give users of social networks ownership over their social identity and social graph.

On the other hand, some introduce an element of financial speculation that people may find off-putting. In any case, with protocols such as Farcaster getting significant adoption, they appear to be more than a flash in the pan.

TO READ THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE, CLICK HERE – “Decentralized Social Networks and SocialFi”

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Crypto Market News

• The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to a score of 30—its lowest level in almost 18 months. Source
• Bitcoin whales have sold over $1 billion in the past two weeks according to data from CryptoQuant. Source
• Bitcoin ETF outflows totaled over $900M last week in their worst performance since mid-April. Source
• Mt. Gox will start repaying Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash customers in July—more than $9.4 billion worth of BTC is owed back. Source
• The German government has added extra selling pressure by sending 400 BTC to Coinbase and Kraken. Source
• Standard Chartered is building a London-based spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading desk. Source
• MicroStrategy has bought another 11,931 BTC for $786M using the proceeds from its convertible bonds and now holds 226,331 BTC. Source
• Japan’s Metaplanet is planning to issue 1 billion yen in bonds to buy Bitcoin. Source
• Bitcoin miner reserves have dropped to the lowest levels in 14 years to 1.9 million BTC. Source
• JP Morgan says the Bitcoin mining industry is attracting increased investor interest and Iris Energy is best positioned for the AI boom. Source
• Marathon Digital is using Bitcoin mining to heat 11,000 homes in Finland. Source
• Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms intends to replace 3 Bitfarms board members after its attempted takeover and holds an almost 14.9% stake in the company. Source
• Bitcoin miner Hut 8 has landed a $150M investment deal from tech-focused investment manager Coatue Management. Source
• Stablecoin transfers have increased by over 16x in the past four years with April’s monthly transfer volume at a record $1.68 trillion. Source
• Stablecoins will make up 10% of money in the next decade or so according to Circle’s CEO. Source
• Donald Trump has reaffirmed his plan to end Biden’s “war on crypto” at a rally in Wisconsin. Source
• Brazil’s tax department will soon be collecting information from foreign crypto exchanges. Source
• The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating trading company Jump’s involvement in crypto. Source
• The UK’s almost 100-year-old Tooting Market in London now accepts Bitcoin at 8 merchants. Source
• Coinbase is the most targeted crypto company by scammers and bad actors according to Mailsuite. Source
• CoinStats has suffered a security breach to 1.590 of its crypto wallets and has temporarily suspended user activity. Source
• Asset tokenization could reach $2 trillion by 2030, with the bullish prediction doubling to $4 trillion, according to consulting firm McKinsey & Company. Source
• Bybit has overtaken Coinbase to become the world’s second-largest crypto exchange. Source
• Warren Buffett-owned Brazilian fintech bank Nubank has partnered with Lightspark to support Bitcoin Lightning transactions. Source

Coins and Projects

• Bitcoin dominance has crossed 50% for the first time since May reaching 52.92% despite the market volatility. Source
• Jack Mallers Bitcoin payments app Strike has finally launched in the UK as part of its global expansion. Source
• Bitcoin OTC balances have jumped by 62,000 BTC in 30 days to the highest level since 2021. Source
• Ethereum could drop 30% after the spot ETFs launch according to VC firm Mechanism Capital. Source
• Fidelity has amended its Ethereum ETF S-1 filing and disclosed $4.7M in seed funding. Source
• Bitwise has amended its Ethereum ETF application which indicates that Pantera is interested in buying $100M worth of ETH. Source
• Bitwise has launched a national TV ad for its spot Ethereum ETF which can be minted as an NFT. Source
• Ethereum Layer 2 Blast will launch its token airdrop to users on June 26. Source
• Ethena has announced changes to its tokenomics which will require airdrop recipients to lock up at least 50% of their ENA tokens. Source
• Bitget will use Ethena’s USDe token as collateral for futures, for its Earn product and for spot pairs. Source
• Midas has launched a new yield-bearing token, mBASIS, to compete with Ethena. Source
• EigenLayer has launched a new security feature on the Ethereum mainnet to prevent Sybil and DDoS attacks. Source
• Arbitrum’s daily revenue has jumped 16,500% after LayerZero’s ZRO token airdrop. Source
• Tether has stopped support for minting USDT on Eos and Algorand as of June 24. Source
• Binance has integrated Tether’s USDT on TON allowing users to deposit and withdraw Tether on the TON blockchain. Source
• A Solana spot ETF is in the works as ETF issuer 3iQ has filed an application in Canada. Source
• Solana is launching a new feature that will connect the blockchain to any website through a shareable link. Source
• Polkadot’s new proposal will reduce unstaking times from 28 days to just 2 days. Source
• Polkadot’s community wants to establish the network as a leader in stablecoin payments with its new proposal to boost adoption. Source
• EDF Energy subsidiary Exaion has joined Cronos as a network validator. Source
• Fantom will support the launch of its Sonic migration with an allocation of $120M in FTM tokens. Source

Macro News

• Nvidia’s stock price has dropped over 10% in 3 days after briefly becoming the world’s most valuable public company. Source
• Nvidia will launch its AI technology in the Middle East by partnering with Qatari telecom provider Ooredoo. Source
• Julian Assange has been freed from a UK prison after agreeing to a plea deal with the US. Source
• The US state of Louisiana has signed a bill to ban CBDCs and protect Bitcoin mining and the right to self-custody. Source
• The European Central Bank (ECB) has published its first progress update on its CBDC citing privacy as a main focus. Source

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Thank you so much for your support, and I truly hope that today’s issue will give you insights needed to help you master your wealth.

If you are reading this it means you are on the free version of the Wealth Mastery Investor Report, which is great for news and tips on the crypto markets.

If you really want to take advantage of fastest growing asset class EVER, I highly recommend that you check out my new altcoin course: Mastering Altcoin Investing

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See you next time!

Lark and the Wealth Mastery Team

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Wealth Mastery (Lark Davis, and the Wealth Mastery writing team) are not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is Wealth Mastery registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. Wealth Mastery is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.

You can find a full disclosure of all my crypto & venture investments here.