TL;DR
Minting new NFTs could be very profitable in the 2021/22 NFT bull run, but this year, while minting NFTs can make money, it requires a much more selective approach. Data shows that nineteen new projects this year have remained in profit, and among those, the Ordinals ecosystem has a strong presence alongside free mints relating to Web3 gaming projects, while the most profitable new collection is based on Solana, although that is actually the only Solana mint this year that is still in profit since launch.
You can trade existing NFTs or you might consider minting NFTs from new projects, but here in 2024, is it still profitable to buy NFTs on launch? Let’s take a look at the state of the market, find out which projects have remained in profit since minting, and figure out what needs to happen next for NFTs.
Minting NFTs in the Last Bull Run
Just for background, let’s rewind to around 2021/22, when NFTs were in a huge bull market bubble. At that time, one of the most profitable things you could do was to simply mint new NFTs on launch, hold for a while, and then sell on secondary. Not everything went up, but enough did that it was, on the whole, worth betting on new launches.
This led to intense hustling for whitelist spots, which often meant grinding in Discord channels, but even if you couldn’t buy directly at mint there were still profits to be made flipping on secondary soon after launch, for as long as NFTs were in up only mode.
That kind of market may now be in the past, but there are still large numbers of NFTs launching–including art, PFPs and gaming projects–so let’s look now at whether it’s still profitable to participate in new mints.
NFT Markets in 2024
According to CryptoSlam, monthly NFT sales across chains in July were around $429 million. The peak this year was in March, with around $1.6 billion of sales, while the all-time high for sales came in January 2022, with a figure just above the $6 billion mark.
Has Minting NFTs Made Money in 2024?
As we’ve just seen, the NFT market has declined this year and is down significantly from previous highs, but despite that, there have still been hundreds of new projects launching. This has taken place across multiple chains with the most activity on Ethereum, although through the Ordinals protocol, Bitcoin has also become an important part of the NFT landscape.
But how about profitability? According to some recent analysis (hat tip to wale.moca on X), about fifty new NFT projects that minted in 2024 have fully sold out their launches and picked up meaningful amounts of attention. And of those, there are nineteen that have then remained in profit with floor prices still above mint price. So, that amounts to an average of around seven sold-out mints per month, and two or three per month that stay in profit, although keep in mind that some of these were free mints, meaning it’s not possible for them to fall below mint price.
It should also be noted though, that not all projects drop immediately, and so there have been opportunities to profit from short-term gains in price by flipping quickly on secondary.
Which Projects Are in Profit?
The chart above shows mints in profit among mints that sold out, and it’s notable that nine of them are free mints. As free mints are risk free, it’s worth looking ahead for allow list opportunities on these kinds of drops. Also, six of the nine free mints listed on the chart are gaming projects, and Web3 gaming is a niche in which NFTs have clear utility, with potential to grow in future.
If we break down the profitable mints by chain, we can see that eight of them are on Bitcoin and eight are on Ethereum, with one on Polygon, one on Base, and one on Solana. But comparing Bitcoin and Ethereum, the top ranking Ethereum project, Palio, is in sixth position for profitability with 220% returns, while positions two to five are all Bitcoin projects, with the highest ranked, Boldinals, offering 830% returns.
From this data then, it looks like Bitcoin is the ecosystem with the best potential for finding worthwhile projects, which is likely down to the fact that the Ordinals Protocol (used to create NFT-like assets on Bitcoin) is less than two years old but is on the oldest blockchain, creating a sense that it has both future longevity and room to expand.
However, if we look to the very top of the chart, it’s the sole Solana project, Retardio Cousins, that occupies the number one position with returns of 18,360%, which is far beyond anything else listed. This is certainly a huge outlier, but it demonstrates that even during prolonged downturns, the NFT arena can still provide moon shots.
Overall though, a couple of types of profitable NFT projects stand out: first, there are those marked by strong communities and collectability (such as Boldinals and Retardio Cousins), and second, there are free mints related to gaming projects.
What Needs to Change for Another NFT Bull Run?
Looking back to that first NFT bull run in 2021/22, as it picked up pace it featured notable PFP drops that established themselves as landmark projects, climbing in value and perceived collectability. This extended beyond the biggest 2021 launch, Bored Ape Yacht Club, to include collections such as Doodles, Cool Cats and Azuki, and besides these, there were many others that weren’t at the highest tier but still broke past the 1 ETH mark.
Currently in NFTs, this kind of sustained profitability isn’t occurring, and it may be that until some new projects are able to establish themselves firmly and maintain traction, we’ll have to keep waiting for a second NFT bull run.
