ChatGPT-4: How to Benefit as a Worker and Trader/Investor


ChatGPT is beyond hype. Already 100+ million users are melting the server parks of this chatbot on steroids. Besides excitement, existential questions creep in. Every online business is wondering how this will change their competitiveness and workflow. Similar questions are posed by freelance knowledge workers and retail investors: how will this bot, which effectively ‘scales expertise’ affect our future workflow – and our investment and trading decisions? Let’s dive in.

The new iteration of ChatGPT, GPT-4, came out only roughly three months after the previous one. As the incredibly sophisticated chat bot launched on March 14 of 2023, it became available to users who opted for a paid account. Developers who wanted to have access to the API were placed on a waiting list. 

The popularity of this new version became apparent quickly, as the maximum number of queries that were allowed dropped from 100 per 4 hours on launch to 25 per 3 hours a few days later. It should still be plenty for everyday use.

Some Impressive Feats Already Achieved by ChatGPT-4

Twitter went crazy tinkering with ChatGPT-4 after OpenAI, the company behind it, already showed some of its eccentric capabilities. Here’s a random list of some interesting achievements of our new bot friend (Just search for #GPT4 to find more):

Perfomance of ChatGPT-4
ChatGPT3.5 verus 4: performance on exams
HustleGPT builds an online business
First prompt of the HustleGPT project to make money online
ChatGPT-4: How to Benefit as a Worker and Trader/Investor - - 2023

Improvements Compared to 3.5

Like the previous version, ChatGPT-4 is surprisingly good at text summarization and writing and debugging code. It seems to have gotten better at logical reasoning, which is shown by the below prompt.

ChatGPT-4: How to Benefit as a Worker and Trader/Investor - - 2023
The same question of everyday mechanics posed to the previous and current version of ChatGPT

Image Understanding in Closed Beta

Another new feature, image understanding, is in ‘closed beta’ and will become available to more users sometime in the future. As of now, only a subset of users can input not just text but also images. It will answer users’ questions about an image.

ChatGPT as a ‘Deflationary Nuclear Bomb’

AI tools like ChatGPT4, when viewed through a lens of a macro-economic analyst such as Raoul Pal, are set to cause a ‘deflationary shock’ to our economies. 

Deflationary effect of ChatGPT-4

Why is AI ‘deflationary’? Take ChatGPT as an example. It ‘scales expertise’: it makes expertise more widely available and at much lower cost.

Take a step back to the world of goods and factories. When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, this event would ‘scale manufacturing’, as it unlocked hundreds of millions of new workers to the world. This decreased average manufacturing prices and suppressed them for decades – only now do we potentially see the end of that era.

What’s the parallel with AI? Well, ChatGPT, for example, is a smart assistent that increases our productivity when it comes to producing ideas, and structuring information. And that matters. Because admit it: which percentage of your time are you busy producing content and/or handle data for your work? Quite a lot, if you’re anything like Lark or his team of writers…

Microsoft is integrating ChatGPT architecture in its toolkit. It isn’t hard to imagine how this will make office workers more productive. It will draft emails for them, summarize email threads, make automatic notes of meetings, help them with data analysis in Excel, etcetera. Work will take less time.

Why This Deflationary Effect Matters for Investors

So, if this deflationary effect will indeed play out, why care? Well, the central banks of this world need inflation. The entire financial system needs some inflation to keep from imploding. A deflationary collapse is a threat just as feared as hyperinflation on the other end of the spectrum. Ergo: the money printer will have to go brrr again.

Still, it remains of course to be seen to which extent we will become more productive. After all, the amount of free expertise on platforms like Twitter is already staggering. Excellent free guides on topics from copywriting to gardening to investing are already widespread. Has this made us more productive, do we effectively make use of all of these? Not really. 

Can You Use ChatGPT for Trading Advice?

ChatGPT-4 has a knowledge cutoff date of September 2021. So, for example, it doesn’t know yet that Ethereum turned to proof-of-stake. It doesn’t know what happened to FTX, nor can it tell you what Balaji’s thesis on The Network State is. So, it’s in its current form not usable for knowledge or trades on short to medium time frames

But that doesn’t mean it can’t be used to generate some knowledge about trading.

When you prompt it with (example taken from Tascha Che):

“Recommend 3 profitable trading strategy setups for trend following and momentum trading, with an average holding period of 30 days.”…

…It spits out a decent short article that indeed covers three prominent and standard strategies (I summarized it here):

  • Moving Average Crossover Strategy: The moving average crossover strategy is a simple yet effective way to identify trends and capture potential profits in trending markets. In this strategy, use two different moving averages, such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. (And it follows with detailing the trading setup)
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI) Divergence Strategy: The RSI Divergence strategy identifies potential trend reversals based on the divergence between the asset’s price and the RSI indicator. Setup: Calculate the 14-day RSI for the asset. Identify bullish divergences: When the asset’s price forms lower lows while the RSI forms higher lows, it indicates a potential bullish reversal. Identify bearish divergences: When the asset’s price forms higher highs while the RSI forms lower highs, it suggests a potential bearish reversal.
  • Breakout Trading Strategy: The breakout trading strategy aims to capture significant price moves following a consolidation period, which often leads to strong trends.

This is knowledge that you can find on many websites, such as Investopedia. That’s not to say it’s not impressive – especially since ChatGPT-4 packages its reply as a nice article and you don’t have to click around five times until you find the article that answers your question.

Note though that its mention of the 50-day and 200-day moving average in the first strategy is a bit off: we asked specifically for average holding duration of 30 days. These moving averages are a bit too slow for that purpose.

ChatGPT can create Pine Script to backtest trading strategies

Pine Script is a programming language created by TradingView to backtest trading strategies. Check out how this trader prompted ChatGPT to create a Pine Script backtest that buys and sells BTC based on Open Interest data pulled from TradingView. Just… wow.

How to Not Have ChatGPT Disrupt Your Job but Benefit

It can feel overwhelming to have to face this breakthrough technology burst on the scene. What will happen to jobs like…. well, let’s ask ChatGPT!

Jobs that GPT-4 can replace
We will all have to go back to working in the fields…

The main surprise is that ChatGPT didn’t put coder/developer on the list, as GPT-4 is so good at coding.

ChatGPT replacing jobs

Counterargument Against the Doom

Let’s take a step back. AI has been better than humans for decades in some specific domains. Software that interprets MRI scans, chess computers, obviously spelling and grammar checkers… still, AI hasn’t replace humans in those fields. Instead, humans use AI to help them improve their own output. 

Writing ChatGPT Prompts as a New Profession

So if you view ChatGPT as a smart assistent, your job will become write prompts that are maximally effective. There’s already an emerging little industry of ChatGPT prompt writers! And no doubt, consultants who advice companies how to integrate

Some of the emerging consensus of ChatGPT prompt writers:

  • Start with a simple prompt and increase the level of complexity. This will get you better results than giving it a complex task right out the gate. In that case, the results will lack precision and nuance.
  • Structure its task: give it a checklist of steps and that divides up its task. 
  • Talk to the bot like to a human: you can ask if it understands something, and you can ask it to elaborate. 
ChatGPT-4: How to Benefit as a Worker and Trader/Investor

How to invest in AI?

The ‘Jedi mind trick’ is to realise that if you can’t beat the machines, join them. As mentioned, start cooperating with them in your work. But also: invest in them. Invest in AI.

This is a bit tricky though. Unlike like investing in Web3, there are no coins you can buy. The AI startup companies are only investable for VC capital and high net worth individuals. 

There are still some ways though. You can invest in companies that invest in AI. 

  • Big tech companies come to mind: Google, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple, Amazon. In general, try to keep an eye on the market: which companies are fastest and smartest in the way they integrate AI?
  • ETFs that focus on this industry, such as Artificial Intelligence ETF’s. 
  • The ‘picks and shovels‘ of this industry, the semiconductor industry. Pick promising semiconductor stocks and/or ETF’s that focus on the semiconductor industry. 
ChatGPT-4: How to Benefit as a Worker and Trader/Investor - - 2023

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