Crypto Rebounds… But Is the Tariff Threat Really Over?

After a weekend crypto crash that will go down in history, what is the state of the market right now? We’ll catch up on where prices might be headed next, plus there’s:

• An ICO that is open for investment
• Bitmine hammering the ETH buy button
• And a tokenized gold stock market play

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Chart of the Day

ETH bounced back strongly after the weekend crash (and Bitmine is buying, as we’ll look at below), and with good reason, as this chart from Token Terminal shows that 60% of all stablecoins are currently held on Ethereum.

And of course, stablecoins are a big deal right now, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicting that the stables market will hit $2 trillion, while it’s only at $305 billion right now. This can only be bullish for Ethereum, even if other chains increase market share, especially as the market cap of tokenized assets on Ethereum appears to set the ETH market cap floor.

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Trade of the Day

Let’s carry on looking at ETH, and you can see that it recovered strongly from the weekend crash but met resistance at the 50-day EMA. That’s an important level, and if it reclaims it convincingly–especially with volume–then it opens the door for a retest of the $4,400–$4,600 range.

On the other hand, we can see right now that failure to break above the EMA leads to rejection, and may confirm a breakdown from the prior support zone, possibly sending ETH back toward $3,800 or even $3,600. The RSI is hovering around neutral territory, so momentum isn’t clearly with the bulls or bears yet.

Overall then, this is a clean technical setup either way: a reclaim of the 50-day EMA is your long trigger, while when it tests and is rejected, you have the setup for a move lower.

Want better breakdowns? Go Premium for TA reports, weekly market insights, and access to Lark’s personal portfolio.

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Alpha Leak

• Sui DeFi protocol Momentum Finance will offer its MMT token through community-focused launch platform Buidlpad. This model prioritizes users over VCs, starting with a sale for Momentum users, followed by a general sale. To find out about eligibility requirements for each stage, check all the details in this Momentum post, as this looks like a good opportunity for users to secure tokens early.
• According to Bloomberg, RWA tokenization firm Securitize (which works with BlackRock on its BUIDL fund) is planning to go public at a $1 billion valuation. This would happen through a merger with a SPAC sponsored by Cantor Fitzgerald and listed as CEPT, although nothing has been finalized as yet.
• Hyperliquid yesterday launched its HIP-3 upgrade. This enables the permissionless launch of perps markets on HyperCore (part of the Hyperliquid blockchain stack), with deployers required to stake 500,000 HYPE.
• Binance-backed perps DEX Aster will go ahead with the second airdrop of its ASTER token starting from October 14th. If you’ve been using the platform, you can check your eligibility with the official allocation checker, and there is also the option to reclaim trading fees rather than receiving allocated tokens.
• Although decision deadlines for SOL ETFs and LTC ETFs were originally set for this month, the US government shutdown means that the process will be delayed, and so launches will not be able to go ahead until the government reopens. Check this post from Multicoin Capital’s Greg Xethalis for more details on the process.

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News Roundup

TACO Time Again?

After the biggest liquidation event ever seen in crypto, we’ve now also seen the fastest recovery, with the crypto total market cap currently putting in an extreme Darth Maul candle on the monthly.

That’s partly because when all the coins wick down to near-zero there isn’t much further for them to go, and with leverage fully wiped out, a bounce back was on the cards. But it’s also been helped along by the Trump admin rowing back from its tariff threats to China.

First we had a Truth Social post from Trump that started with, “don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!” Then on Monday, there was word from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that the 100% China tariff threat “doesn’t have to happen”.

So, is this all just part of a now-familiar deal-making routine (go nuclear first, then pull back), or is it another TACO situation? Either way, the crypto reaction has been mixed: that positive rebound followed by some selling, meaning that BTC is now trading around $112,000 and ETH is around the $4,000 mark.

When it comes to stocks, the S&P 500 moved up 1.6% on Monday after dipping by 2.7% last Friday, and the Nasdaq, which had fallen 3.6%, rose 2.2% on Monday. And as for gold and silver? They never even dipped for a moment, and both made new ATHs this week.

Also, over on Polymarket, users are putting only a 16% chance on 100% China tariffs by November 1st. That all said, there is still room for plenty of volatility in the coming days and weeks, and what’s clear is that the markets are more headline-driven than ever before.

Binance Covers Some User Losses

After admitting to technical problems on its exchange, Binance has offered to compensate users who lost money on the platform during the weekend crash. The $283 million worth of compensation covers “losses attributable to Binance”, after there were Binance-only de-pegs on tokens including USDe, and users found themselves unable to transact and trade.

At the same time, the BNB token has hit a new ATH, putting it at a $167 billion market cap, and on Monday, BNB Chain, with the Four Meme launchpad, announced a $45 million airdrop campaign, distributing BNB to anyone who has traded memecoins on the chain.

New BNB DAT to Launch

Also on the BNB front, Chinese investment bank China Renaissance Holdings is reportedly working with YZi Labs (formerly known as Binance Labs) to launch a BNB treasury vehicle in the US.

China Renaissance and YZi Labs plan to invest a combined $200 million into the firm, while there are talks centered around raising $600 million for the digital asset treasury company, which will be focused on accumulating BNB.

ETH: Bitmine Buying

One buyer not phased by the weekend crash was Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee, as Bitmine took the dip opportunity to buy another 200,000 ETH. This means that the firm now holds more than 3 million ETH, which is 2.5% of total supply.

Tom Lee explained that, “the crypto liquidation over the past few days created a price decline in ETH, which BitMine took advantage of”, and also stated that the company is, “now more than halfway towards our initial pursuit of the ‘alchemy of 5%’ of ETH”.

Following on from this, the Bitmine stock price rose 4.9% on Monday, with the company positioned as the largest corporate holder of ETH, while overall, ETH treasury companies now collectively hold 4.88% of the total ETH supply, with ETH ETFs holding 5.61%.

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Degen Play of the Day

Tokenized gold is hitting the Nasdaq through a company formerly called Prestige Wealth, now rebranded as Aurelion. The ticker changed from PWM to AURE after the company this month raised $150 million to become the first public company to hold Tether Gold (XAUT) as its primary treasury asset, as it pivots from wealth management to digital assets.

Backed by fintech platform Antalpha, alongside investors including Tether and Kiara Capital, and structured with $100M in private equity and $50M in senior debt, Aurelion will allocate the bulk of its capital to XAUT, from which it plans to generate yield in partnership with Antalpha.

Shares spiked up to $1.25 on Monday, but trading is volatile and the price is now back around $0.75. However, if you’re looking to trade potentially large price swings, or want exposure to a tokenized RWA play without going onchain, Aurelion is a unique vehicle.

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Legal Disclaimer

Wealth Mastery (Lark Davis, and the Wealth Mastery writing team) are not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is Wealth Mastery registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. Wealth Mastery is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.

You can find a full disclosure of all my crypto & venture investments here.