From Shutdown to Stimulus: Risk Assets Get Green Light

The US shutdown is finally ending, and with reopening comes a potential surge of liquidity back into the system, just as talk of fresh stimulus heats up again. Also inside today’s issue:

• Tokenized finance keeps breaking records
• A key signal flashes on market leader BTC
• Coinbase brings ICOs to the masses
• And an energy stock ticker showing value

Chart of the Day

Tokenization of real-world assets is a key sector crossing over between crypto and traditional finance, and Ethereum continues to be the leading chain in this area.

This is demonstrated in data from Token Terminal showing that since the start of 2004, the AUM of tokenized funds on Ethereum has risen by 2,000%, with BUIDL–the tokenized Treasuries fund from BlackRock–making up a significant chunk of that growth.

As for where Ethereum goes next, the Fuskaka upgrade–scheduled for the beginning of December–means the chain is about to become faster, cheaper, and easier to build on, while ETFs and DATs can continue to absorb supply.

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Trade of the Day

Today let’s stick with BTC, as it’s giving positive signals at a time when the macro is easing into a potentially strong environment for risk assets.

Most importantly, BTC closed its weekly candle above the 50-week EMA. This level is a line in the sand for bull market continuation, and you can see how over the past couple of years it has bounced off that line during its march upwards, while the recent wick below suggests active dip-buying.

But is it really as easy as just tracking that moving average? We’ll see whether this metric holds from here, but while the weekly MACD remains in negative territory, its current down-phase looks stretched, and the MVRV ratio suggests that a local bottom was found.

This all makes BTC good for a long position, with price targets at the 115K resistance level, and after that we can aim for the ATH at 126K. Invalidation would result from a weekly close below the 50-week EMA.

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Alpha Leaks

• The US Treasury Department and the IRS have issued new guidance making it possible for crypto ETPs to offer staking services and share staking rewards with retail investors.
• Chainlink Rewards Season 1 starts on November 11th, meaning Chainlink Cubes holders (Cubes are a kind of points reward) can allocate Cubes to Chainlink ecosystem projects.
• XAUT, Tether’s version of tokenized gold, is the fastest growing asset among RWAs with a supply of at least $1 billion, while the overall supply of gold onchain has grown this year from $1.2 billion to $3.5 billion.
• The Litecoin price has broken above the $100 mark, while at the same time the amount of LTC kept in optional private addresses has surged above 329,000, reinforcing LTC’s status as a privacy coin.
• The Cardano Summit takes place in Berlin on November 12th and 13th, so follow events there to keep on top of potential catalysts and announcements that may be positive for ADA.
• Hardware wallet maker Ledger is considering either an IPO or a fundraising round, possibly to take place next year, according to comments made by CEO Pascal Gauthier.
• Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev is aiming to open up AI investing to retail participants, with plans to sell tradeable shares in a closed-end fund that invests in private AI companies.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) and seven tech partners (1QBit, Applied Materials, Qolab, Quantum Machines, Riverlane, Synopsys, and University of Wisconsin) have launched the Quantum Scaling Alliance, with the aim of making quantum supercomputing scalable and efficient.

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News Roundup

Shutdown Ends and Stimmies Are Back!

Sunday night brought positive macro and political developments as it was announced that the US government shutdown is coming to an end. This has been the longest ever shutdown, but a deal was reached and the next steps towards reopening–including a House of Representatives vote–can now be taken.

And don’t forget that when government reopens, liquidity can flow from the Treasury General Account back into the markets, with almost $1 trillion currently locked up.

Stocks and crypto reacted positively to this news, and shutdown ending was the not the only bullish catalyst, as over the weekend Trump also talked about his intention to deliver tariff “dividend” payments of “at least $2,000 a person”.

If these payments get plowed straight into crypto and stocks (remember how wild the markets got when Covid stimmy checks were on the menu), then we have more fuel for higher prices, but keep in mind that the payments are not an immediate certainty, with Polymarket giving 12% odds they are delivered this year, while Scott Bessent has suggested dividends might come as tax cuts or an alternative stimulus.

Coinbase Launches Token Sales

ICOs are back, with Coinbase launching its own token sales platform and putting an emphasis on opening up token offerings for retail participation, with full access for US users.

The first such launch will be for EVM-compatible Layer-1 Monad, and it runs from November 17th to 22nd. It offers 7.5% of the MON token supply, aiming to raise over $187 million at a $2.5 billion FDV, with a minimum bid of $100, and a maximum of $100,000.

For more details, check the Monad announcement, and be aware that Coinbase has a feature whereby selling within thirty days of launch may result in smaller allocations for future sales, so immediate selling is disincentivized.

Also though, according to Monad’s tokenomics–which you can read in full here–there will be 10.8% of supply unlocked and in circulation on launch, including airdrops on top of the token sale.

That means additional selling pressure, so tread carefully with this one, especially as–looking at the longer-term picture–27% of supply is allocated to the Monad team, and 19.7% to VCs, although these tokens are locked initially.

XRP ETFs Lined Up for Launch?

More altcoins ETFs may be incoming soon, and this time, it’s XRP products looking good to go. Launches are not confirmed yet, but the DTCC–that’s the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation–has listed five spot XRP ETFs in its “active and pre-launch” category.

The DTCC deals with clearing, settlement and custody for ETFs (both the shares and the underlying assets), and its infrastructure is essential for the ETF market, so these listings are definitely a positive sign, although they do not in themselves guarantee that the products will launch.

The XRP ETFs in question are managed by Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, Canary, and CoinShares, and their launch would add XRP to a growing list of ETF-wrapped coins, in addition to BTC, ETH, and SOL.

This would likely be bullish for XRP, considering that it’s already one of the few crypto tokens with significant mainstream investor mindshare.

Degen Play of the Day

Hydrogen stock Plug Power (PLUG) just posted an improved Q3, with EPS at –$0.12 vs –$0.13 expected, and revenue at $177 million vs $176 million expected. EPS improved 52% YoY and 40% QoQ, showing better operational efficiency alongside modest top-line growth, while there are also narrative catalysts.

Specifically, Plug has announced plans to generate $275 million, partly through monetizing its electricity assets in New York, and it recently revealed a data-center backup power initiative, tying the company into a hot theme: data-center energy security.

Price is retesting the 50-week EMA as support after breaking out of a downtrend.

Additionally, October already brought a wave of tangible developments, including:

• Delivery of a first electrolyzer to a project in Portugal
• A 2GW deal with Allied Biofuels, expanding contract value there to 5GW
• A renewables partnership in Nevada
• $370 million raised via warrants, with another $1.4 billion possible
• A change of CEO, signalling a possible strategic reset

PLUG is now trading at a $3 billion market cap, but a new CEO and alignment with the data-center energy narrative could ignite speculative upside.

Legal Disclaimer

Wealth Mastery (Lark Davis, and the Wealth Mastery writing team) are not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is Wealth Mastery registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. Wealth Mastery is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.

You can find a full disclosure of all my crypto & venture investments here.