In a huge development, the US has signed off on the Genesis Mission, a national tech push that could spark major demand for chips, compute, and energy. We’ll look at that, plus:
- A clean setup for LINK
- Crypto ETF flows turning a corner
- The US state that bought the bitcoin dip
Chart of the Day
This chart from Glassnode breaks down the BTC Realized Price by Age, which visualizes the average on-chain cost basis for different groups of investors.
Currently, it shows bitcoin trading below the cost basis of short-term holders, creating overhead resistance from underwater traders, but while we remain well above the deep value zones of long-term holders, creating support levels much lower down.
And this all results in uncertainty. For real bullishness to return, we need to see price aggressively reclaim short-term holder levels, which would indicate possible structural recovery. Until we clear that overhead supply level though, caution is warranted as we wait for confirmation in either direction.
Great news today.
All that panic about an AI bubble is finally cooling off, and it shows. Reuters reported that global stocks pushed higher, as traders are now expecting a December Fed rate cut.
When money starts shifting like this, it usually marks the start of a new phase, and that is the time to get positioned.
And for your luck, this is happening right as I am running my biggest Black Friday offer ever.
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Trade of the Day
LINK is pressing up against the top of a falling channel, and the structure looks similar to the previous pattern on the left, when LINK formed the same narrowing channel and then broke above.
Momentum is also now starting to turn, as the RSI has curled off oversold levels and pushed back above 40, while the MACD is flattening out. Volume isn’t expanding yet, but the selling pressure seems to have slowed.
So, if LINK can close above the channel resistance at around $14, then there’s the opportunity for a clean long, opening the door for a move towards $16 to $18, and then $20 after that. On the other hand, if price gets rejected again, it can head back to the bottom of the channel.
Alpha Leaks
- Payments giant Klarna is launching a stablecoin, KlarnaUSD, on the Stripe-backed Tempo chain. It’s set to launch in 2026, and is another example of fintech embracing stablecoins.
- RWA tokenization firm Securitize is launching a European trade and settlement system on Avalanche. According to RWA.xyz data, Avalanche is currently the fifth biggest chain for RWAs, with $706 million in onchain RWA value.
- Robinhood has announced a joint venture with market maker Susquehanna to launch a new futures exchange that will be focused on prediction markets.
- Polymarket has received CFTC approval for intermediated trading, allowing US users to access the platform through registered brokerages. CEO Shayne Coplan stated that the regulatory green light is a major step towards “permeating the US financial system”.
- Perps DEX Lighter has launched tokenized equities perps trading, starting with COIN and HOOD, both of which can be traded with 10x leverage.
- The Pentagon supports placing Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD on a list of Chinese military-linked companies, according to a Bloomberg report. The Pentagon made this conclusion back in October, but it’s not clear whether any actions have been taken.
- This week’s Shanghai IPO for GPU maker Moore Threads–founded by the former global vice-president of Nvidia and dubbed the Nvidia of China–was 4,126 times oversubscribed. That means there was $2.33 trillion in retail demand at a $7.57 billion valuation.
News Roundup
US Launches Tech Mega-Project
President Trump has signed an Executive Order launching the Genesis Mission, a massive federal program under the Department of Energy that looks like a new Manhattan Project, with goals to use AI, supercomputing, and autonomous labs to double America’s scientific output within a decade and lock in US tech dominance.
The initiative mobilizes seventeen national labs, roughly 40,000 scientists and engineers, every piece of high-end US compute the government can pull together, and it will consolidate government datasets that are currently under-utilized.
There is an emphasis on speed, as Genesis comes with deadlines from sixty days to identify at least twenty science and technology challenges, and up to 270 days to demonstrate operational capability, while there’s a push for autonomous discovery, with plans for AI agents to test hypotheses in automated workflows.
If it works, it accelerates scientific invention, and from a market angle, it looks like a clear tailwind: scaling national tech infrastructure and initiating AI-powered labs equals demand for high-end chips, compute, and reliable energy.
So with power becoming the critical bottleneck for AI growth, the Genesis Mission points towards a long-term buildout in nuclear, advanced grid tech, and AI-adjacent assets, potentially creating a government-backed structural catalyst for energy and AI.
ETF Flows Flip Positive
The spot BTC ETFs are this week reversing a run of enormous outflows. As of midweek, they have registered a collective $1.32 million in outflows, which may not initially sound great, but this is compared to three consecutive weeks of outflows registering over $1 billion each week, with last week seeing negative $1.22 billion.
And it’s an even better story looking at the spot ETH ETFs, which are coming off three very negative weeks in November (with outflows of $508 million, $729 million, and $500 million), but are this week registering inflows, so far, of $236 million.
Meanwhile, the Solana ETFs just registered their first day of outflows after 21 consecutive positive days, and the new XRP ETFs are also performing well so far, with a run of nine consecutive positive days.
Texas Pulls the Trigger on Bitcoin Reserve
The state of Texas has officially added Bitcoin to its balance sheet, confirming a $5 million purchase executed on November 20th via BlackRock’s IBIT ETF. This is the first tranche of a larger $10 million allocation authorized by Senate Bill 21, with the state securing its entry at an average price of roughly $87,000 per coin.
While this initial buy was routed through an ETF, the long-term play is total sovereignty, and the plan is to use the remaining $5 million allocation to buy BTC directly, ensuring the state holds its own private keys when all the required systems are in place.
Degen Play of the Day
If you’re following crypto, you already know Bitmine (BMNR), the bitcoin mining firm that pivoted this year to becoming the leading ETH treasury company, and which is now fronted by Tom Lee of Fundstrat.
Bitmine has so far stacked 3% of the total ETH supply, and its stock price has been a roller coaster, surging from below $5 to as high as $161 back in June, and subsequently declining back down to around $32.
From a short-term point of view, this could be a decent swing trade from here as it looks like price may have bottomed, and the MACD is close to a bullish crossover.
However, any upside move depends on the wider state of the crypto market, so the bet is that–regardless of whether or not the four-year cycle has peaked–crypto gets a bounce into year-end, which is a strong possibility with a December rate cut looking increasingly likely.
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Hi! My name is Lark Davis!
I’m a cryptocurrency investor with years of experience and I’ve been making consistent profits in the crypto space.
I’m passionate about helping others do the same, so I run multiple educational channels on crypto investing.
