Government Shutdown? Honey Badger Don’t Care. 

Good morning. Bitcoin is eating D.C.’s dysfunction like the honey badger eats a cobra’s head. Then, payroll data released yesterday says number go up. And speaking of number go up, check out the details on your Trade of the Day. 

All of that, plus . . . 

• The Chart of the Day says Welcome to Q4!!
• An update on SOL ETFs. 
• Your Alpha Leak. 

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Chart of the Day

Welcome to Q4 everyone! And judging from the price action, we’re off to a great start. 

Here’s Bitcoin’s average monthly returns since 2013. Now when thinking about October specifically, ten of the last twelve Octobers have ended with positive returns, with the average coming in at a very solid +20.2%. 

Now check out the October returns that came approximately 1.5 years after Bitcoin’s last two halvings. So that’s October 2017 and 2021. Bitcoin’s returns for those two months came in at +47.8% and +39.9%, respectively. And this month is 1.5 years after the 2024 halving. 

This is the power of Bitcoin’s supply shock. Don’t fade this October, and don’t fade this Q4. 

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Trade of the Day

Are you kicking yourself, upset yet again that you missed another Bitcoin pump? Well be easy on yourself, Anon. The good trades are just getting started, and there’s multiple ways to trade Bitcoin right now. So let’s discuss your Trade of the Day. 

Here’s the setup. A symmetrical triangle that’s been forming since late June just got smashed. Bitcoin sliced through this triangle’s descending resistance line like a hot knife cuts through butter. And look at yesterday’s volumes. These are the highest green volumes since July 14th. These volumes confirm the strength of this move, and this gives us confidence that Bitcoin will hold above this triangle. 

So here’s your play(s). We see three ways you can approach Bitcoin at this point, and all three are longs, because we think Bitcoin is going higher. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is at $118.7K. 

1. Set limit longs at $115.5K. This is the most conservative option. It would require Bitcoin to have a moderate pullback and a retest at the top of this triangle. Assets make retests like this all the time. If it comes, this is a golden opportunity for a long. 
2. Set limit longs at $118.0K. The thinking here is that Bitcoin might retest and bounce from the last local high, set on September 18th, at $118K. It makes technical sense for Bitcoin to do this. 
3. Market longs with a breakout above $120K. Look at the resistance from mid to late July. It’s $120K. So if you see this level get taken out, especially on high volumes, it’s a good time to go market long, because Bitcoin will be aiming for a new all time high at that point. 

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Alpha Leak

• Aethir [ATH] was selected by Predictive Oncology (NASDAQ: POAI) to be the company’s base asset for their new treasury. Aethir is a DePIN that operates a distributed cloud computing platform. 
• Anoma [XAN] launched its new, native token – XAN – on Monday. Anoma describes itself as a decentralized operating system that powers a unified app for all of Web3. 
• ASTER’s 24h perp volume, at the time of this writing, is 9X that of Hyperliquid’s. Everyone is chasing the Season 2 airdrop. The cutoff / snapshot for Season 2 ends October 5th, but the distribution date for Season 2 is still unknown. Now, if you’re wondering why ASTER’s price is sluggish, it’s because withdrawals for the initial airdrop claim opened yesterday. 
• Ethereum’s [ETH] “Fusaka” upgrade shipped via testnet yesterday. Fusaka is Ethereum’s next major hardfork, and it’s aimed at improving the blockchain’s scalability and efficiency. Mainnet activation is tentatively scheduled for early December. Careful fading the queen. 
• Solana [SOL] has processed approximately 60% of all on-chain stock trading volumes thus far in 2025. And with regards to this asset niche, Solana has processed about 6.2X the volumes compared to Ethereum. Don’t fade the prince.

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News Roundup

Government Shutdown? Honey Badger Don’t Care. 

The US Government officially shut down at midnight on October 1st. And did Bitcoin care? It did not. Let’s discuss why. 

A brief backstory first. US lawmakers are at another impasse with regards to federal spending levels. Trump and the Republicans want cuts to foreign aid and health insurance subsidies, while Senate Minority Leader Schumer and the Democrats want continued funding for domestic programs. Since a deal wasn’t reached, federal funding lapsed, which triggered a halt to non-essential Federal operations. So think furloughed Federal workers and a pause on a lot of government services. 

The last time this happened was in 2019, and it’s a symptom of partisan divides in Washington D.C.

Now here’s where things get interesting. Bitcoin held steady at $114.4K as the shutdown started. But then four hours after, it started ripping to the upside. So we’ll have to see where things go from here, but thus far, in the face of D.C.’s dysfunction, there’s been no panic sell off, nor any downwards price action. 

Bitcoin is acting like the honey badger that we need it to be. 

And make no mistake, this is poetic justice, and it’s precisely why Bitcoin was created. Born during the 2008 financial crisis, and operating as a decentralized, uncensorable global store of value, Bitcoin doesn’t care about shutdowns; it thrives on them. And that’s ultimately because Bitcoin is a call option on fiat’s fragility. 

US Private Payrolls Fall in September 

With the government shutdown delaying the Fed’s official nonfarm payrolls (i.e. due but probably won’t come tomorrow), the markets are leaning hard on the ADP’s National Employment Report, which was released yesterday. 

And here’s what it said. September private payrolls dropped -32K, versus the plus 50K that was expected. This signals continued weakness in the US labor market. 

Spartan Capital’s Peter Cardillo said that yesterday’s numbers showed “significant” weakening in US labor. Manulife’s Matthew Miskin said this was “another data point in a laundry list of weak labor.” And FHN’s Will Compernolle noted that ADP will be relied upon here, as the Fed’s BLS data probably isn’t coming. 

But of course, our key question is, what does all this mean for our coins? Well, it probably means that the numbers go higher. And that’s because labor weakness equals higher chances of Fed rate cuts. 

Remember, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate. High employment and steady inflation at 3%. So, if labor is weakening, it means the odds of a rate cut increase. And at the time of this writing, the market believes there’s a 99% chance of a 25% rate cut at the Fed’s October 29th meeting. 

Expect SOL ETF Approvals Once Shutdown Ends

“Sources” were buzzing early this week that SOL ETF approvals could come as soon as next week, with one issuer having “high conviction” for approvals in the first half of October. 

However, these sources acknowledged just one caveat. No government shutdown was required. Well, that happened. So given that the SEC staff is now being reduced to a skeleton crew, analysts think that any approvals are “very unlikely” until the shutdown ends. We agree. 

However, if we perform an A + B equation to the ideas above, then we can expect for SOL ETF approvals to happen within just a few weeks after the government comes back online. That’s just logic. 

And Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas seems to agree. He’s now saying on X that the new approvals are a “when” and not an “if”. 

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Degen Play of the Day

Degeny as hell, or just a solid technical trade setup? Probably the latter, but just roll with me here. SOL is your DEGEN play of the day. But is this bad boy primed for a trigger pull right now? Well, not quite, but we’re close. 

Here’s the setup. These rising wedge lines that we’ve had on the chart (for a while now) are still active. And early this morning, SOL finally got back above this wedge’s support line at $221. Meaning, at the time of this writing, SOL is smack in the center of this rising wedge. 

Now here’s the play. There’s no reason to go with a perp long in the middle of this wedge. We’re in purgatory here, and the gap between these two lines is only seven dollars. So instead, wait for SOL to break above the wedge’s top line resistance at $228. When you see that, along with some confirming high volumes, then it’s time to go full degen. 

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Town Square

Win of the Day

We’ve got another Win of the Day for you. This time, it’s from Bellicus Deus, who is one of the members of Lark’s Discord group.

So we flashed a descending triangle play for PENGU, and Bellicus dug deep and went for it. Congratulations sir on having the balls to go for it. Now I hope you make it real and take some profits!!!

Now just FYI, the TA analysis that’s shared with Lark’s premium newsletter subscribers is the same as what’s shared with the Discord group. However, the Discord group gets the analysis delivered to them earlier, plus additional setups and ideas that we can’t feasibly include in a weekly newsletter. 

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Wealth Mastery (Lark Davis, and the Wealth Mastery writing team) are not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is Wealth Mastery registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. Wealth Mastery is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.

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