Is The Big Bear Here?

Good morning. It’s been one of those weeks where you wish crypto stopped trading on the weekend. So it’s time to have THE talk – are we in a…bear market?

All of that, plus your…

• Chart of the Day – it’s a positive sign that capitulation is near.
• Trade of the Day – Nvidia’s post-earnings price action decoded.
• Degen Play of the Day – You won’t believe what just happened to the Fed rate cut odds.

Chart of the Day

After 9 painful trading days below $100K – I know, it feels like WAY longer – you’ll be relieved to hear that according to Swissblock, Bitcoin is almost at the capitulation zone. This zone has marked all major BTC bottoms for the past two years, showing risk-off signal is coming into peak levels and BTC is showing some signs of seller exhaustion. If this is the case, BTC should bottom somewhere around here and rebound.

Now obviously with such a small data set, this is very much a bull market signal. So if the bear market is already upon us, then this chart may indeed already be invalidated. Time will tell. But with all the fear in the market this week, fingers crossed we’re nearer to the end than the beginning. At least for now. 

I know the market’s a mess right now. Volatility is wild, sentiment is in the gutter, and a lot of people are panicking.

But we’ve been here before. I’ve been in crypto since 2017. This isn’t my first cycle, and I can tell you the people who consistently come out on top are the ones who stay calm, stay focused, and prepare during times exactly like this.

That is why for Black Friday I am giving my best offer ever, to help you get the guidance you need when it matters most.

Premium and Platinum are now 40% off, and the Platinum six month upgrade unlocks all my courses for free.

Get 40% off and get ready for what comes next.

Trade of the Day

Nvidia is fighting to break above a descending trendline that began in October.

We’ve seen a couple of fakeouts, but no convincing breakout yet. The good news is $180 has held firm as support. The bad news is price action is forming a descending triangle, classically a bearish pattern.

So the question is: will the bulls finally step up and reclaim control. Or are we about to see cheaper prices in the coming days and weeks?

Look for a breakout and close above around $183 and it’s off to the races. But if it breaks down from this $180 support level, the next target to the downside is around the $170-$172 area. 

Alpha Leaks

• Solana [SOL] ETFs saw net inflows of $128 million this week despite the continued sell-offs in the BTC and ETH collective.
• BitMine [BMNR] will start paying investors an annual dividend payment of $0.01 per share. The first dividend will be paid out on December 29th. BitMine also plans to begin staking its ETH in 2026.
• Hyperliquid [HYPE] has released HIP-3 Growth Mode to reduce trading fees by 90% for new markets, the lowest in DeFi.
• Cipher Mining [CIFR] has signed an additional 56-megawatt, 10-year AI hosting deal with Google’s Fluidstack.
• Coinbase [COIN] has bought Solana’s Pumpfun rival trading platform, Vectorfun. The deal is expected to close by end of year and will plug into Coinbase’s DEX integration. 
• BlackRock BTC ETF [IBIT] saw its largest trading volume on record since launch on Friday at $8 billion as the entire group set a new record of $11.5 billion.
• Cardano [ADA] suffered an unexpected chain split on Friday caused by a delegation transaction that exploited a bug. ADA dropped 6% and Charles Hoskinson shared on X that every single user was impacted and the clean-up will take weeks.

News Roundup

The Bull And Bear Case For BTC

The question everyone wants to know right now is: Is crypto in a bear market? The truth is, as long as BTC is trading under the 50-week EMA we are in a bear market. But is it “THE BIG BEAR?” Macro makes it doubtful, but if it is then it means riding some bags down to disgusting levels in 2026. 

Is it a “mini bear” like April? Well, we actually didn’t lose the 50-week EMA then, but we did lose the 200-day EMA (for two months) which is another key bull/bear signal. BTC was down 32% in that example. Alts may have ended it, but many coins never recovered from that crash.

So, what could come next? 

1. We keep going down without stopping. Not super likely. 
2. A relief rally to the 50-week EMA around $100K. Just enough to convince everyone we are back, before rugging us. 
3. Bulls retake the 50-week EMA before end of year, and resume uponly.exe. 

These last few weeks have been a fear driven crash around rates, Japan, AI valuations, ETF selling. The macro conditions still support risk taking and conditions are set to continue easing.

Of course, we’re hoping for 3 but preparing for 2.

MSCI Index May Kick Out Crypto

I hate to do this to you, but there’s some more potential bad news on the way. 

The MSCI Index quietly announced in October that it’s considering excluding digital asset treasury companies (DATs) with crypto balance sheet holdings over 50%.

It all comes down to whether they too closely resemble “funds” which can’t be included in the index. 

Of course Michael Saylor has clapped back, posting on X: “Strategy is not a fund, not a trust, and not a holding company. We’re a publicly traded operating company with a $500 million software business and a unique treasury strategy that uses Bitcoin as productive capital.”

A consultation is open until December 31st, with a decision expected by January 15th 2026. If things are left unchanged, then this becomes a nothing burger. But if the change gets approved, then there may well be a sell-off in MSTR and co. by pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and institutions. 

Japan Says Money Printer Go Brrrr!

Japan just announced its largest economic stimulus package since Covid worth $135 billion. The government is throwing money at everything: cash handouts to support families paying household bills, food vouchers, cutting taxes and investing in growth sectors like AI.

But before the hopium goes straight to your head, there’s a bear case and a bull case.

Because it didn’t go down well with the bond market at all, pushing yields to record highs. And that’s where things could potentially get messy. If Japan needs to hike rates to strengthen the Yen, this could trigger a US-wide sell off in stocks and bonds – the Yen carry trade unwind. 

But if Japan can pull off this stimulus package without needing to raise rates, then the risk-on environment will likely return to the market allowing risk assets to boom.

Degen Play of the Day

Well, well, well…the odds of a Fed rate cut in December just swung back in our favor – now up to 69.5% on CME Group’s FedWatch. The reason? NY Fed President John Williams said on Friday that there is still “room for further room adjustment in the near term.” And that was enough to reverse the Polymarket odds overnight. 

The odds of a 25 bps cut has risen from 22% on November 20th to 65% on November 21st. And the odds of “No change” has decreased from 76% on November 20th to 32% on November 21st.

There’s still time for this to change once again. But keep a close eye on the 1/3-month bond yields to gauge whether the rate cut will happen or not.

Legal Disclaimer

This content is intended purely for general knowledge and educational discussion. It is not financial advice, a recommendation, or a financial promotion under the laws of any jurisdiction. Nothing shared here should be interpreted as an offer to buy or sell any virtual asset, financial product, or security. The material is not tailored to any specific investor profile and is not intended to guide investment decisions. All views expressed are personal opinions or general commentary for informational purposes only. Unless explicitly stated, no part of this content has been sponsored, commissioned, or endorsed by any issuer, platform, or third party. Virtual Assets involve significant risk and can be extremely volatile. You could lose some or all of your investment, and there are no legal or financial protections in place. Some assets may be illiquid, difficult to transfer, or subject to irreversible transactions. Past results do not predict future performance. This content does not imply that investing is easy, safe, or guaranteed to yield returns. Where partnerships or paid collaborations are involved, those will be clearly marked in accordance with applicable disclosure requirements. Please do your own research and speak with a qualified advisor before making any investment. Only invest what you’re fully prepared to lose.

You can find a full disclosure of all my crypto & venture investments here.