Long Everything. 

Written By
Lark Davis
First Published
May 1, 2025
Last Updated
April 30, 2025
Estimated Reading Time
10 minutes
GBTC
In this article...

Gm friends,

That’s Arthur Hayes’ recommendation, as stated during his keynote speech at Token2049 in Dubai, yesterday. Long crypto. Long stocks. Full send on all of it. 

So pour that coffee and buckle up, because here’s your mid-week crypto update.  ☕️📰

Long Everything.  - - 2026

Here’s what’s in today’s issue:

  • Chart of the day: The US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index.
  • David shares his thoughts on Arthur Hayes’ bullish advice, Arizona’s Bitcoin Reserve Bill, BlackRock tokenizing a $150B treasury trust fund & a hacker is likely behind Monero’s price surge.
  • Today on chain.
  • Altcoin Alpha.
  • Lark’s technical analysis on the market.

Crypto is No Longer on the Sidelines

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Chart of the Day

This is the US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. It measures manufacturing-related metrics (e.g. production, new orders, shipment, employment, etc.) in the central-South US. However, the index also serves as a health barometer for the larger manufacturing economy throughout the entire country. 

So this week, the index printed its lowest reading since the 2020 COVID crash. This probably means that manufacturing activity is severely contracting throughout the entire US economy, and this increases the chances of a recession. 

Long Everything.  - - 2026

Now a recession is bad for Bitcoin, but I’m a Bitcoin bull. So how do I square this circle? Well, it’s because I believe that the US political class doesn’t have the fortitude to allow for a recession. They don’t want that pain, and the money printer is their drug. 

So the TLDR on this manufacturing index is that there might be some economic turbulence ahead. This might cause volatility in the Bitcoin and crypto markets, and some will get shaken out. But think twice before you do, because Uncle Sam and his printer might be just around the corner to save the day. 


News Now

Long Everything. 

Arthur Hayes delivered Token2049’s keynote speech Wednesday morning in Dubai, and word on the street is it was a banger. And your TLDR is that Hayes believes that now is the time for investors to go long on just about all investable assets, including Bitcoin. 

And what’s his catalyst? Well, it’s the same as what I just said above. The US money printers are about to get flipped back on. 

Long Everything.  - - 2026

So the base of Hayes’ argument is that the US economy and dollar system is backed into a corner, and the only way out is by printing more money. Hayes, who currently works as the CIO of Maelstrom, and was a co-founder of BitMEX, compared the US’s situation today to that of late 2022, when the markets were on edge over Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. But instead of biting the bullet, and allowing the markets to experience a natural correction, the US government pumped $2.5T into the system via a repo program. This kept the economy chugging along, and the US out of a recession. 

Well, Hayes thinks we’re in a similar situation now. Due to Trump’s tariffs and other structural issues, the US economy is in a tight spot. But Hayes believes that hedge funds are about to work with the government to purchase loads of US Treasuries, which will work to boost liquidity throughout the entire market. And the end result of this is prices on basically all investable assets, including Bitcoin, increase. 

And with regard to Bitcoin specifically, Hayes stated in his keynote that we could see a $1M Bitcoin by 2028. That’s three years away.

Arizona Legislature Passes Bitcoin Reserve Bill 

Big news coming out of Arizona on Monday. The Arizona State Legislature became the first in the US to officially approve a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The approval largely split along party lines, with the Republican-controlled House and Senate pushing the bill through. The House vote was 29-25, and the Senate was 31-25. 

So if the bill gets signed into law by Governor Katie Hobbs (D), the legislation will allow for the state treasury to invest a portion of public funds into Bitcoin, but that investment will be categorized as a “digital currency” on the state’s books. 

Now obviously, if Gov. Hobbs signs the bill into law, it will be huge for Bitcoin, and will further Bitcoin’s ripple effect among the other US states. But the question is will the governor sign it? Well unfortunately, it appears that she probably will not. 

Hobbs is currently locked into a battle with the State’s Republicans over a new budget proposal, and she’s stated that she’ll veto every bill that comes to her desk, until an acceptable budget passes through the legislature. And apparently, she’s made good on her word thus far by vetoing a litany of bills in Arizona’s current session. 

So Arizona probably won’t be the first state to sign a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill into law, but one is surely coming. The most likely contenders at this point are either Utah or Texas. 

BlackRock to Tokenize $150B Treasury Trust Fund 

BlackRock is working to tokenize shares for one of its $150B treasury trust funds. That’s according to company documents filed with the SEC on Tuesday. 

So specifically, we’re talking about BlackRock’s Liquidity Treasury Trust fund. This is a $150B fund that’s part of a larger suite of funds managed by the firm. And according to the SEC documents, the “DLT share class” will be digital fund shares recorded on the blockchain, via a tech partnership with BNY Mellon. The DLT shares are for institutional buyers only, and it has a minimal investment of $3M. 

Long Everything.  - - 2026

There’s no indication right now if the blockchain that BlackRock might use will be public or private. 

BlackRock’s tokenization of their Liquidity Treasury Trust fund follows that of its tokenized BUIDL fund, the latter of which manages over $1.7B in assets. And given that BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager, this latest development is very bullish for our industry, because it re-emphasizes the green light for other TradFi institutions to develop their own tokenization programs. 

CEO Larry Fink has repeatedly stated that TradFi moving towards the blockchain and tokenization is critical for the future of American finance. 

Hacker Likely Behind Monero’s (XMR) Price Surge

Early Monday morning, Monero (XMR) surged 43% from $230 to $329. And was it because the larger crypto market is piling back into the privacy coin? Nope. Rather, it was most likely a hacker swapping $330M in stolen Bitcoin into XMR. 

So on-chain evidence indicates that a transfer of approximately 3.5K BTC was swapped for XMR via numerous crypto instant exchanges on Monday. And the heavy buy orders massively spiked XMR’s price, because there’s super thin liquidity for XMR right now, given that most major exchanges have delisted the coin to combat criminal activity. And with no rise in active wallets or network activity, this swap likely caused XMR’s price to surge.

Now concerning the person or group that initiated it, researchers believe it was a hacker who had stolen Bitcoin, and then turned to Monero as a method for covering their tracks. By late Wednesday, XMR had retraced to $272, which is still an 18% gain since the swaps occurred.


Today On Chain

From CryptoQuant, here’s your update on the total exchange reserves for Bitcoin. And your update is that Bitcoin’s exchange reserves are falling like the price of your favorite shitcoin. So as of yesterday, reserves are at 2.4M, which is the lowest print since November of 2018, when Bitcoin was priced at $5K. 

And look at that chart. It’s a textbook inverse correlation. 

Long Everything.  - - 2026

So our current reserve readings are largely attributed to the growing list of publicly-traded companies that are continuing to gobble up Bitcoin. Strategy, Semler Scientific, Metaplanet. You know the drill. 

And this latest data point is yet another sign of this contradictory market that we find ourselves in. Contradictory in the sense that the economic backdrop looks shaky, but Bitcoin’s fundamentals and on-chain metrics have never looked better. 


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Long Everything.  - - 2026

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Altcoin Alpha

  • 1inch Network [1INCH] expanded to Solana on Tuesday. This means that 1inch is bringing their $7B in liquidity and 1M+ tokens to Solana’s users. At its core, 1inch is a swap aggregator that provides for extremely cheap swap rates. 
  • Hyperliquid’s [HYPE] on-chain metrics are looking strong right now. Specifically, I’m talking about TVL and the number of total users. 
  • Kaito AI [KAITO] is going through a bunch of big upgrades, including new use cases for both Yaps and sKAITO. Kaito AI markets itself as the distribution powerhouse of crypto. 
  • Sonic’s [S] Summit starts on May 6th. Keep your eyes peeled for any bullish announcements. 
  • SUI is having a $266M token unlock today. So heads up to any spot or leveraged investors who benefited from last week’s pump. You might be seeing some increased sell pressure today. 

Market Analysis

Bitcoin is yet again testing another critical resistance area. This time, it’s $95.8K. A significant break above or below this level means Bitcoin should move ~5%, with many altcoins pivoting even harder. 

Now we’ll discuss this a bit more below, but it’s hard to know which direction the markets will turn in the short term. But the good news is it doesn’t matter, because there’s plenty of solid LONG and SHORT setups that we can take advantage of right now in this market. 

OK, let’s dive in. 

Bitcoin (BTC) 

Long Everything.  - - 2026

We’re on the daily here for Bitcoin. 

Last week, we smashed through that critical $88.5K level, which formally broke Bitcoin’s lower high structure. But now, check out the resistance we’re hitting at the 0.618 fibonacci level at $95.8K. We got a perfect touch on that line, but thus far, Bitcoin has been unable to break it. 

Now I’m fundamentally bullish, so I think this all probably plays out in one of two ways over the short term:  

Scenario 1:  We continue coiling right under this 0.618 / $95.8K price point for several more days, before we get a hard break to the upside. If this happens, the next resistance point is $100K to $101K, which overlaps with the 0.786 fib level. 

Scenario 2:  The 0.618 / $95.8K area holds as resistance, and we get a retest somewhere between $88.5K to $85.7K. Within this range, we’ve got support at the previous $88.5K lower high, the 0.382 fib level at $87.6K, and the 200D EMA at $85.7K. My bet is if we do get a retest lower, this general area holds. 

I do want to make an observation about Bitcoin’s volumes. Two points. First, look at the huge volumes on April 7th and the 9th, when Bitcoin tested $74.4K, bounced off it, and turned the corner. These big volumes are a sign that $74.4K might have been the major regional bottom for this cycle. A lot of buyers stepped in here, so we can view it as a big support area. Second, now look at Bitcoin’s volumes around the 0.618 / $95.8K area. They’re much lower. This signals general market indecision, meaning that a move up or down at this point are both very viable.

SIGNAL:  If we get a break above…

CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE TO PREMIUM AND READ THE REST OF MY MARKET ANALYSIS


Final Notes

Thank you so much for your support, and I truly hope that today’s issue will give you insights needed to help you master your wealth.

If you are reading this it means you are on the free version of the Wealth Mastery Investor Report, which is great for news and tips on the crypto markets.

If you really want to take advantage of fastest growing asset class EVER, I highly recommend that you check out my new altcoin course: Mastering Altcoin Investing

In this course we’ll teach you all about how to spot, choose and acquire the winning altcoins of the next bull market. 

Learn how to build your portfolio so that growth is ensured and risk is mitigated. Let me help you build a strategy that’ll change your life forever in the upcoming bull run.

See you next time!

Lark and the Wealth Mastery Team


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Legal Disclaimer

Wealth Mastery (Lark Davis, and the Wealth Mastery writing team) are not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is Wealth Mastery registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. Wealth Mastery is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.

You can find a full disclosure of all my crypto & venture investments here.

Hi! My name is Lark Davis!

I’m a cryptocurrency investor with years of experience and I’ve been making consistent profits in the crypto space.

I’m passionate about helping others do the same, so I run multiple educational channels on crypto investing. 

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