Market Analysis with Rekt Capital – August 7, 2024

In today’s edition, the following cryptocurrencies will be analysed & discussed:

• Solana (SOL)
• Bonk (BONK)
• Optimism (OP)
• TrueFi (TRU)
• Vanar Chain (VANRY)

Solana — SOL/USDT

Last week, we discussed potential downside paths for Solana:

Since then, the entire crypto market experienced a deep correction but here is today’s update:

Solana followed the lower red path and then some, even downside wicking into the low $100s.

However, price has since recovered a lot of its downside and has reclaimed this blue over 2-month support, this month’s August monthly candle behaving as if it had successfully retested the blue level of ~$145 in a volatile way.

This month’s downside wick saw SOL dip all the way to the next major Monthly support at ~$120 (orange) which has been holding as support for almost 6-months now.

For the first three months, SOL held the orange monthly level as support via candle-bodied lows whereas for the most recent three months, SOL has been holding this same level but via downside wicking lows.

Over the past three months, it seems like the premium buying behaviour at the $120 orange level is much stronger than before and there is an evident aggression in this buy-side behaviour as evidenced by the downside wicks.

The premium buying behaviour is strong to the point where SOL has managed to perform its most recent Monthly Closes above a much higher monthly level of ~$145 (blue).

As long as SOL continues to hold blue ~$145 as support, it will be positioned for a move to the $165 level (blue resistance) in an effort to follow-through on the red path after all.

Turn the blue $145 level into resistance and SOL may need to drop back down into the orange ~$120 level again.

For the moment, ~$145 is holding successfully as support.

BONK — BONK/USDT

Last week, we discussed BONK’s failed retest in a bit of detail:

Here is today’s update:

That failed retest (red circle) meant that price indeed revisited the Higher Low and then some, even breaking down from it via a Weekly Close below the Higher Low.

If BONK soon rebounds but turns this same Higher Low into new resistance, that would fully confirm the breakdown into downside continuation to as low as the black level below.

However, BONK has the entire week to try to reclaim this Higher Low as support; this Higher Low a confluent area with the black level above.

Reclaiming the Higher Low as support would see BONK reclaim the structure as a whole.

Optimism — OP/USDT

Last week, there was a threat of OP losing the Macro Higher Low (purple) as support and turning it into new resistance:

Here is today’s update:

OP ended up turning the Higher Low into new resistance and experienced downside continuation as a result into the black $1.33 level.

This is the level that OP needs to hold as support much like price managed to do so throughout the majority of 2023.

Downside wicking blow this black level of support is fine as long as OP manages to Monthly Close above it by the end of August.

Losing the black level could see OP once again tag the blue $0.91 level, just like it did in mid-2023 via a downside wick.

TrueFi — TRU/USDT

Last week TRU lost its Weekly Higher Low which lead to the following analysis:

Here’s today’s update:

The Weekly Higher Low opened the floodgates for TRU to drop into the Macro Range Low of its range.

This is the level (green) that TRU needs to hold to continue its consolidation between the green Range Low and the red Range High resistance.

If we conceptualise TRU’s price action from mid-2022 to early 2024 as a Macro Double Bottom formation then this current retest of the green area is a retest of the top of that formation to fully confirm the breakout as a result of that Double Bottom pattern.

TRU needs to hold this green area to confirm a successful breakout from the Macro Double Bottom and enable a move across the range to revisit the Range High (red) over time.

Vanar Chain — VANRY/USDT

Last week, VANRY rejected from the red $0.12 resistance, dropping into the blue level and even below it, Weekly Closing below it.

This Weekly Close now sets VANRY up for a potential turning of this blue level into new resistance.

After all, bearish confirmation comes in three stages: a) Weekly Close below a key support, b) turning of this same level into new resistance, followed by c) downside continuation after rejection.

VANRY has satisfied only step 1 in the process but it’s really important for VANRY to reclaim this blue $0.088 level (blue) as support if it is to avoid downside continuation to as low as the black $0.06 level (i.e. the top of the previous re-accumulation range from late 2023, early 2024).

Reclaiming blue as support would enable a move across the blue-red range ($0.08-$0.12).