Market Analysis with Rekt Capital – July 3, 2024

In today’s edition, the following cryptocurrencies will be analysed & discussed:

• Optimism (OP)
• Render Token (RNDR)
• Ondo (ONDO)
• Vanar Chain (VANRY)
• TrueFi (TRU)
• Bonk (BONK)

Optimism — OP/USDT

OP retraced significantly to the point that it has now revisited its Macro Higher Low, dating back to mid-June of 2022.

This is now make or break for OP as price needs to hold to avoid lapsing this technical uptrend.

Of course, downside wicks below this Higher Low are permitted but it’s important for OP to not Monthly Candle Close below the trendline as that could kickstart a breakdown process, especially if OP flips the trendline into new resistance.

OP is now retesting this Higher Low and while a volatile retest would be fine, general continued price stability throughout is needed to avoid additional downside.

Render Token — RNDR/USDT

RNDR is almost a mirror image of Bitcoin’s price action.

RNDR is forming a sideways range, forming a Lower High within that range, and recently also forming a Higher Low within that range as well.

RNDR has been downside wicking below the red $7.32 support level, downside wicking into the blue Higher Low trendline.

Generally though, RNDR has been successfully retesting the red Range Low as support and also forming a Higher Low below due to volatile retests.

In addition, the purple $6.25 level represents an old All Time High resistance which has been turned into support during those volatile downside wicking retests.

In a nutshell, RNDR is enjoying a cluster of demand in the purple and red horizontal supports but also in the blue Higher Low trendline as well.

Generally, this area needs to hold to further support RNDR at these levels and predispose it to further consolidation between the $7.32-$10.64 level going forward.

Naturally, if BTC were to rebound from its $60600 Range Low back to its $71500 Range High over the coming weeks, then RNDR would probably follow suit with a move from its respective Range Low of $7.32 to its $10.64 Range High over time.

Ondo — ONDO/USDT

ONDO has a history of forming re-accumulation ranges at highs in preparation for additional upside later on.

ONDO first formed a re-accumulation range like this earlier this year (black-black) only to break out to new highs to form yet another re-accumulation range (light blue to light blue).

During consolidation in these ranges, ONDO tends to perform volatile retests of the respective Range Low, even sometimes producing long downside wicks below that Range Low.

This downside wick can be so volatile that it successfully retests the top of the previous re-accumulation range that price had broken out from earlier.

The green circle represents that successful retest in mid-April, for example.

But ONDO is displaying a lot of the same signs even now, having recently successfully retested also the top of the previous light-blue re-accumulation range, while forming a new re-accumulation range (black-black).

ONDO needs to continue holding its current Range Low (black) around $1.09 for this tendency to persist.

And if this price tendency remains true going forward, then once ONDO breaks out from its current range, it could rally to then form a new range at highs, and also pullback via a downside wick to retest the top of the current black-black range.

Vanar Chain — VANRY/USDT

VANRY has been in a black downtrend since the early 2024 highs.

Breaking this downtrend would mean that price is ready for a new uptrend.

However, VANRY is not yet close to a challenge of the downtrend.

In fact, in recent weeks, VANRY broke out from the light blue range only to reject at the black downtrend.

In the process, the top of the light blue range (which saw successful retests to enable additional upside) has been rendered as a weak support; after all, the first green circled retest enabled fantastic upside to new highs but the second retest enabled a very limited rally.

Now, VANRY is trying to hold support at the orange level

Previous impulse moves that originated here also produced weakening rallies so if VANRY indeed develops a base here, then price could revisit the light blue Range Low to possibly reject there; a Weekly Close above that level would be necessary to avoid rejection there.

Generally, a break of the downtrend would be a confirmation signal that VANRY is ready to begin a new uptrend, offering a lower risk opportunity compared to what price is offering now, where it’s uncertain how strong the supports are due to limited price history.

TrueFi — TRU/USDT

Earlier this year, TRU broke out from its Macro Double Bottom formation.

In the following month post-breakout, TRU successfully retested the top of that pattern to fully confirm the breakout and the ensuing trend continuation to the upside.

Ever since that retest, TRU has been forming Higher Lows and Higher Highs in its price action.

But TRU has struggled to break beyond the red resistance area.

Overall, TRU has built a range for itself: the Range Low being the green box that is the top of the Double Bottom formation and the Range High being this red resistance area.

If TRU were to lost its series of Higher Lows, then price would probably drop deeper inside the green-red range.

For TRU to breakout from this range however, it would need to perform some higher timeframe candle closes inside or above the red Range High.

Until either of these two actions occur (i.e. a loss of the Higher Low or a higher timeframe close inside or above the red resistance), TRU will simply consolidate at these levels and so it will remain in no man’s land; after all, consolidation is trendless price action whereas it’s better to have a confirmed trend to make a decision on.

I’ll wait for a trigger to occur to better understand the next direction TRU will take.

Bonk — BONK/USDT

BONK has been developing a range at highs (black-black) on the Monthly timeframe and has been consolidating for most of this year.

Last month, BONK failed to retest the Range High of this range as new support, breaking down back into the range to tag the Range Low.

However, the recent Monthly Close occurred inside the range, above the Range Low, despite the downside wicking last month.

Technically, BONK is still trending sideways and would need a Monthly Close followed by a successful retest above the Range High to confirm a breakout.

On the Weekly, a potential pattern is emerging:

Price is bouncing between these two trendlines while trying to maintain that Monthly range.

As long as BONK maintains the bottom of this pattern, it will be able to challenge the pattern top, with the goal of Weekly Closing above the black Monthly Range High in an effort to then pullback and successfully retest it as support.

Unfortunately for BONK, it has a history of failing those Weekly retests (red circles) when it comes high time for them.

But when BONK is ready to perform a successful retest of that level in the future (orange circle), that would be a strong contributing signal to a potential breakout from this blue pattern and ultimately the Monthly range.

Thank you for reading.

Rekt Capital