Market Analysis with Rekt Capital – July 31, 2024

In today’s edition, the following cryptocurrencies will be analysed & discussed:

• Solana (SOL)
• Optimism (OP)
• Vanar Chain (VANRY)
• TrueFi (TRU)
• Bonk (BONK)

Solana — SOL/USDT

Solana is positioning itself really well for a bullish Monthly Close.

After all, the black level of $165 denotes a May and June resistance which has been broken this month.

With the Monthly Close just around the corner, SOL has a very real chance of Monthly Closing above the old black resistance in an effort to potentially reclaim it as support in the future.

Following a Monthly Close above the black level, any dip that gets SOL closer to the $165 would be considered a retest attempt.

And if the retest of that level is to become a little bit more volatile to the downside, whereby price would deviate below the $165 level briefly, then the path could even look like this, with a dip as low as even to the $140s:

Of course, this retest doesn’t need to happen however textbook TA suggests that whenever an old resistance is broken, it is often reclaimed into new support afterwards in an effort to ensure trend continuation to the upside later.

So will the retest occur in August?

And if so, how volatile will it be?

Optimism — OP/USDT

OP is losing the Macro Higher Low, dating to mid-2022 (purple).

The black $1.91 Range High resistance (black) is approximately confluent resistance with the aforementioned Higher Low and both are acting as a point of rejection for the moment.

OP will need to Monthly Close above the $1.91 Range High to avoid potentially turning this level into new resistance which could send price to the $1.33 Range Low (black) as part of intra-range consolidation between $1.33-$1.91.

After all, last month OP Monthly Closed below the $1.91 (black) level to lose it as support and this month price has upside wicked into it from the underside, as if to confirm it as new resistance.

Turning said level into resistance could thus precede downside continuation deeper in the black-black range.

Vanar Chain — VANRY/USDT

Here’s my chart on VANRY from a few weeks ago:

VANRY followed the green path ultimately.

Here’s the mid-July chart on VANRY:

VANRY retested the orange level as support on lower timeframes.

Here’s last week’s chart on VANRY:

VANRY followed the green path in its entirety.

But the beauty about TA is that these pathways can still repeat, and so a successful dip into the orange level and retest there could successfully enable a repeat move via the green path.

Here’s this week’s chart:

VANRY finds itself in a position where the retest of the orange level wasn’t picture-perfect, but has a chance of holding it going into the Monthly Close which would be an additional sign of this orange level acting as support.

Ultimately, it’s important that this level doesn’t flip into resistance to avoid downside into the $0.08-$0.12 range.

For the time being however, the retest is in progress.

TrueFi — TRU/USDT

TRU continues to wrestle with its Higher Low and while three weeks ago TRU was able to Weekly Close above it to position itself for a reclaim of the Higher Low in the following week…

Last week, TRU cancelled this progress out with a Weekly Close below the Higher Low and this week it is turning it into new resistance, potentially.

But the Monthly perspective really simplifies the Macro predicament for TRU:

All in all, only two areas really matter: the green demand area and the red resistance area.

The green will likely produce rebounds and the red region rejections, enabling consolidation between these two levels for the foreseeable future.

But that Weekly Higher Low will dictate whether there’s a higher probability of dropping into or at least closer to the green area (if the Higher Low is lost as support) or whether price will have another chance at trying to revisit the red resistance by holding the Higher Low as support.

Bonk — BONK/USDT

BONK can’t catch a break at this black level, having failed to retest said level as support on three separate occasions.

What’s interesting about these failures is that the initial Weekly Candle would actually Close above the black level but it would always be the subsequent candle that actually develops beneath the black level and turn it into new resistance to precede downside continuation.

Looks like BONK is setting itself up for something similar yet again, which could see price drop into the blue Higher Low.

The week isn’t done yet and BONK could still try to salvage the black level as support but until that happens, history may be on the precipice of repeating.

Thank you for reading.

Rekt Capital