Market Analysis with Rekt Capital – June 12, 2024

In today’s edition the following cryptocurrencies will be analysed & discussed:

• Arweave (AR)
• Coti (COTI)
• Avalanche (AVAX)
• Kyber Network (KNC)
• Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
• Theta Token (THETA)

Arweave — AR/USDT

The entire market is pulling back.

All of us have seen pullbacks like these before and yet we feel differently about it, in the moment.

Nonetheless, AR broke out from its light blue Bull Flag last month and this month, price went for retest of the top of the Bull Flag to retest it as new support.

Of course, price is overextending, even dropping into the Bull Flag right now, but there is a possibility that this is a volatile retest for AR.

Generally, AR has a pivotal support at the confluent support that is the Bull Flag Bottom and the Macro Downtrend (purple) which will likely support the trend if things get even more volatile.

Worse-case scenario, AR pulls back into the Macro Downtrend and produces more downside wicks below it, like it did in recent months.

For the time being however, there is still plenty of time left in the month for AR to perform a volatile post-breakout retest of the Bull Flag.

Lots can still change over the next few weeks.

Coti — COTI/USDT

If we look to the very, very left of this chart, we’ll notice that the light blue area acted as resistance to reject price.

In 2021, this light blue area acted as a home for downside wicks in COTI’s price.

Throughout 2022–2023, this light blue area acted as resistance.

And now, COTI has the chance to turn this area into support.

The light blue box is approximately confluent with the orange $0.13 which we’ve been discussing in recent weeks; they serve the same function and share the same historical tendencies.

COTI is sandwiched between the light blue box and the orange level.

COTI needs to hold this light blue area to turn it into a new support which would be historic.

Since late 2019, we’ve seen just how many times these switches happen.

In fact, if this retest is successful, this will be only the second time in COTI’s almost 5-year history that price will have turned this light blue area into support.

And in doing so successfully, that would enable price to reclaim the orange level as support for further upside.

The reclaim of the orange level via a Monthly Close above said level would be pivotal.

There’s time in June for that to still happen.

Avalanche — AVAX/USDT

AVAX is technically still consolidating in the lower half of the Macro Range (i.e. green $32.66 to light blue $38.57).

Right now however, AVAX is deviating below the green Range Low.

Worse-case scenario and AVAX could tag the purple Macro Downtrend again for a Macro Retest, all the while performing a volatile retest of the green Range Low.

Generally, AVAX is consolidating still within the lower half of the range, but there is scope for downside volatility as part of a volatile consolidation here.

Kyber Network — KNC/USDT

KNC has rallied over +30% since the blue Higher Low rebound.

But historically, this orange box has often meant the end of the road for a rally from KNC, with upside wicking occurring beyond it, only for price to slink below the orange box again and drop into lower levels.

That’s probably what lays ahead on the horizon for KNC once again; upside wicking beyond the orange boxed resistance before rejecting.

Should a rejection indeed occur here, then KNC could revisit the blue Higher Low over time.

Of course, there is scope for limited upside still as the Weekly suggests, before that rejection occurs:

If KNC successfully retests the orange area as support as per historical green circles, then overextension towards the upside would still be on the cards, but it’s this sort of price deviation that could likely end up as an upside wick on the Monthly, especially if most of the market is underperforming right now.

Bitcoin Cash — BCH/USD

Bitcoin Cash, for the first time in its history, enjoyed a Monthly Close beyond the black Macro Downtrend.

Last month and now going into this month, BCH is trying to retest this Macro Downtrend as support.

The retest is in progress, downside volatility is an option, but generally BCH is trying to confirm the end of the Macro Downtrend and confirm a new Macro Uptrend going forward.

A historic breakout has already been achieved.

Now it’s all about achieving a historic retest as well.

Theta Token — THETA/USDT

THETA is following the light blue pathway, though slightly overextending to the downside below the orange area which is acting as support.

Many Altcoins are demonstrating signs of volatile retests and THETA is no different.

Granted, the green Higher Low looks like it is being invalidated, however if THETA recovers in the coming days or even weeks, then there’s still scope for that green Higher Low to maintain itself, albeit with a downside wick below it.

Here’s the weekly for additional context:

THETA has historically experienced volatile retests of this orange area of support and it’s important for price to not Weekly Close below the orange box as that could prompt the beginning of a breakdown process.

Until that Weekly Close is in, then this could still be a volatile retest, much like what we saw in early 2021 (green circle).

Thank you for reading.

Rekt Capital