Monthly Alpha Report – July 2022

july

Market Roundup

The weekly close for Bitcoin the week before last came under the 200-week moving average and was a pretty clear rejection of the rally.

Strong sell pressure came in before the FED meeting, the US GDP data release, and the corporate earnings reports. 

The good news is that last week the market did flip bullish after all of this news came out.

With the weekly candle closing above the 200 week moving average for the first time since early June.

It seems that this time the fed rate hike and bad GDP data were priced in, and that the corporate earnings were better than expected. 

Remember, until proven otherwise this is a bear market and we could see a lot more volatility and sideways action. Yes, we will see some epic rallies, but we are very far away from the kind of strong reversal levels that would say things are changing. The 200 week MA is just the first step. 

Bitcoin also just put in its monthly close.

Finally a green candle! What is interesting is that the main sell off candle, looks eerily similar to the bear market bottom capitulation candles of previous bear markets.

History doesn’t repeat but it sure can rhyme! If we really rhyme, then we can expect a few months of sideways action before we see any real recovery shaping up. 

The chart below shows where the downtrend line is currently

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