What a Month…
Welcome to the first edition of the monthly crypto alpha report.
This report is coming during what has been one of the hardest and most savage months for the cryptocurrency markets in recent times.
The last time things were this bad was all the way back in the Covid crash of 2020, and before that during the bear market bottom of 2018.
But even with that going on there is opportunity.
And that is the intention of this monthly report, to give you a concise round-up of the top opportunities that I see in the market.
Market Roundup
Well, it has been a wild week. Let’s dig in.
Bitcoin had its third highest volume week in years.
The last time volume was this high was during the May 2021 sell off and during the Covid crash of 2020. We got close to reaching both of those levels.
Under normal market circumstances we might speculate on this being a capitulation bottom, but with macro being so bad let’s proceed with caution.
The weekly RSI for Bitcoin is the most oversold it has ever been in Bitcoin’s history.
Another record-breaking indicator that would normally help signal a bottom.
We also did something that Bitcoin has never done before.
We traded below the previous cycle high.
Essentially meaning that we are living in unprecedented times for the crypto markets.
Yes, this was partially driven by massive liquidations, but it still underlines the need for caution when it comes to being too quick to say the bottom is in.
<h3 id="bitcoin-fear-&-greed-index“>Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index
While some look at this indicator as little more than a meme, the reality is that this tracks sentiment across the crypto space. And sentiment has been really bad.
The kind of despair and fear flowing across the markets in the last few weeks tend to coincide with market bottoms.
Although with the macro scene being so rubbish any calls for a bottom in crypto should be taken with a bit of skepticism.
<h3 id="on-chain-data“>On Chain Data
Taking a look at on chain data and again we start to see signals that Bitcoin at the very least is on sale right now!
This chart here shows the biggest ever realized losses by Bitcoin investors.
Over 7 billion in losses were locked in during the sell off last week.
Again, smells like a possible capitulation.
We also see Bitcoin miners rushing for the exits. Panic is setting in everywhere.
Miners are often forced sellers though in these situations. They must sell to make sure that bills are paid and that they can keep mining.
In total they dumped 9,000 BTC.
They still hold 50,000.
At the peak of the sell off the total supply of Bitcoin in profit dropped to just 49% when we hit the low at $17,700.
In previous bear cycles we bottomed between 40 and 50% of supply in profit.
History repeating or macro invalidates?
Long story short – we are far from out of the woods so be careful!
I think until we see inflation peak, the equity markets will continue to be rubbish. And crypto will likely continue to be rubbish too.
Capital preservation during this period is key.
The bottoming period will likely last for some time, so there probably won’t be much reason to rush and over deploy capital too early.
Top Airdrops of the Month
Origin
Origin will be doing an…
Hi! My name is Lark Davis!
I’m a cryptocurrency investor with years of experience and I’ve been making consistent profits in the crypto space.
I’m passionate about helping others do the same, so I run multiple educational channels on crypto investing.
