Where’s the rally we were promised? Why hasn’t BTC pumped to 100k yet, for chrissakes? Can someone call the CEO of Bitcoin?
Patience, friends, patience…
June was quite a depressing month. From the doomsday vibes on X, you wouldn’t tell that we’re still hovering near all time-highs for BTC.
Add some Mt. Gox FUD to the mix (can those people finally get some of their coins back so we can leave all this behind us?!) and you’ll understand the bad vibes.
While not looking the strongest ever, BTC has held support and made a higher low compared to the wick to 56k of early May. It’s an indication that 56k was the low. Let’s wait and see.
It’s all normal, this post-halving lull. As Rekt Capital wrote: ‘Bitcoin will retrace deep enough to convince you that the bull market is over. And then it will resume its uptrend.’
June was the month of two healthy resets. First, speculative leverage was flushed out, which is a good thing.
Second, we saw a post-halving miners’ capitulation. Miners were on a selling spree, funding new machines. The weakest miners had to shut down and sell their coins. A miners’ capitulation is a reliable indicator of an upcoming rally.
As mentioned, it’s normal to have a lull in a bull market, especially post-halving. It’s a nice refresher. The RSI reset to oversold levels not seen since August 2023.
Not long after reaching these low August 2023 RSI levels, BTC started rallying. It looks like right now, the market is rapidly exhausting its sell-side.
We’re not out of the woods yet. A key area to watch though is the 200-week EMA (blue line on the chart), which should hold. If not, the bear phase will likely last longer.
The good news is that we have macro tailwinds. Go figure: Trump is talking about crypto at nearly every rally. The Biden administration has been changing its tune on crypto. In this US election year, it’s to be expected that the money printer will be switched on, to give the people low unemployment and high asset prices.
And finally, take a look at the BTC Realized Volatility chart.
Since mid-March, volatility has been trending down, reaching levels that have historically been associated with a big price move. It might take a few more weeks, but it’s coming.
Ethereum: ETFs No More than Weeks Away
The launch of US spot Ether ETFs has been delayed by the SEC. The listings won’t come as early as July 2 but will be a few more weeks away. Of course, that doesn’t change a bullish thing.
With the current market sentiment, ETH price expectations are in the gutter. But… that means there is potential for upside. Will the ETH ETFs see nice inflows after all, surprising analysts to the upside? The market (price) will react positively.
As the Ethereum ETF is coming, keep an eye on Ethereum ecosystem altcoins such as Lido, but also Chainlink – and in the meme sphere Ethereum-based meme PEPE. Watch the charts, in this example of LDO/ETH and PEPE/ETH. ETH might rally, but some of these ETH alts might rally harder.
Mercle House of Incentives
Founded by developers hailing from Polygon and Consensys, Mercle is creating a new way for communities to increase their Airdrop Reward potential.
While the presentation bears similarities between Galxe and Zealy.
The big difference with Mercle is…
Hi! My name is Lark Davis!
I’m a cryptocurrency investor with years of experience and I’ve been making consistent profits in the crypto space.
I’m passionate about helping others do the same, so I run multiple educational channels on crypto investing.
