We had to wait for the final days of the month until BTC finally fulfilled the Uptober prophecy… In fact, residents of the EU have already witnessed a new all-time high for BTC.
It appears as if dollar users won’t have to wait that much longer – even though it would be perfectly natural to retrace a bit from here before charging ahead again.
Market Roundup
Bitcoin Breaking Resistance
The MACD on the weekly has crossed, as we saw coming last month. These bullish crosses have traditionally coincided with multi-month pumps – the last time, in October 2023, a 200% pump…
The current breakout has already challenged the March all-time high and it looks like we won’t have to wait long before we breach it. As mentioned, a retrace and/or consolidation for a week or two until post-election would be normal.
What explains the rally? It’s the seasonality, in part. Q4 is traditionally good for crypto. There are some macro tailwinds, too. On November 7, the Federal Reserve will cut rates again, at least that’s the expectation, supporting asset prices in general. The Chinese government is injecting liquidity into the markets.
The other factor that seems to be at play is the increasing likelihood of a Trump election. On Polymarket, Trump odds hover around 65%, even though other polls call a tighter race. A pro crypto president is at least partially priced in at this point.
In the meantime, Bitcoin ETF flows are back in the green. After months of basically net-zero flows, the last two weeks have been spectacular.
All this bullish price momentum is happening while the mainstream media is largely silent about BTC. Retail investors aren’t Googling for crypto related search terms.
Of course, retail will come back, but this might only happen when BTC crosses all-time highs decisively, or a 100k BTC is on the charts. The current rally is institutional-driven.
What we are witnessing is a bullish divergence between price and retail interest. Imagine the rocket fuel for the price when retail enters the market again!
Ethereum: Darkest Before Dawn?
Ethereum measured in BTC keeps bleeding. It trades like sh*t, frankly.
Here is the 50-day simple moving average of the ETH/BTC chart. It’s recently been bumping its head against this line. Historically, in this phase of the market, whenever ETH managed to cross and hold this SMA, it meant that ETH/BTC bottom was in.
Who knows if this crossing of the 50-day will happen soon. As the final ETH holders are capitulating, we might just be close to the bottom. Maybe it’s darkest before dawn. Peak hate for an asset tends to happen near bottoms, as we saw with Solana in the winter of 2022/2023. Back then, right when everyone was ridiculing this chain, it bottomed and has since done a 25x.
Still, there is of course no guarantee that ETH/BTC has bottomed. Again, if you want to trade this, maybe wait until the ETH/BTC price makes the 50-day SMA its support.
Airdrops of the Month
Top Altcoins to Watch
DeFi Farm of the Month
Expect volatility around the US election. Having the election uncertainty behind us will be good for the markets, regardless of who wins.
The current market structure is strong, especially considering that we are close to all-time highs – without retail anywhere to be found! Bullish.
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TCL Publishing ltd (director Lark Davis, owner of Wealth Mastery) is not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is TCL Publishing registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. TCL Publishing is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.
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Hi! My name is Lark Davis!
I’m a cryptocurrency investor with years of experience and I’ve been making consistent profits in the crypto space.
I’m passionate about helping others do the same, so I run multiple educational channels on crypto investing.
