GM friends.
Polymarket threw us a surprise this week about Trump’s November chances, and we’ve got a theory about what might have happened.
So pour that coffee and buckle up, because here’s your mid-week crypto update. ☕️📰
Here’s what’s in today’s issue:
- David shares his thoughts on Trump flipping Harris on Polymarket, Solana ETF updates, State Street offering crypto services for institutional clients & El Salvador launching Bitcoin certification for government employees.
- Rekt Capital has the latest technical analysis for you on the market.
- Erik has an article on the rise of Polymarket: Betting on the outcome of events.
- In case you missed it by Rebecca.
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Trump Flips Harris on Polymarket
Something unexpected just occurred on Polymarket.
The prediction market is now giving former President Donald Trump a 52% chance of beating VP Kamala Harris in this November’s election.
Harris had been leading Trump in the Polymarket odds since August 10th, with her lead even widening to 10 percentage points on August 16th. And even though the odds narrowed over the past several days, Harris maintained the edge.
Well, all of that ended on Tuesday when Trump’s chances overtook those of Harris, and by a fairly significant margin. At the time of this writing, Trump leads Harris on Polymarket by 5 percentage points.
Potential RFK Jr. Endorsement is the Likely Cause
What’s odd is the timing.
You see, the DNC convention is underway this entire week in Chicago, and these events typically give a temporary boost to the respective candidate’s polling numbers. So what gives?
Well, no one knows for certain, but I have a theory. A potential RFK Jr. endorsement.
On the day the flip occurred, Tom Bilyeu’s Impact Theory dropped a podcast interview with Nicole Shanahan. She’s RFK’s VP running mate.
In the interview, Shanahan said that they’re seriously considering the possibility of cutting a deal with Trump, whereby RFK would drop out of the race and endorse the former president, in exchange for a seat in the new administration.
RFK Jr. is currently getting around 4% to 5% in most national polls, so such an alliance would be critical for Trump, given how tight the race has become. So, my sense is that market participants quickly picked up on Shanahan’s statements, and the Polymarket odds adjusted accordingly.
Medium to Long Term Crypto Perspectives under Trump or Harris
Whether we like it or not, crypto has become a partisan issue in the U.S. It’s in the political spotlight big time, and Trump and Harris have very different views and plans for it.
Thus, it’s pretty damn obvious that this election will have an impact on prices, but to what extent is much less clear.
In the short term, a Trump victory could trigger a bull run of epic proportions, given the former president has promised to make bitcoin a strategic reserve asset. But a Harris victory will likely dampen prices, although how much is unknown, due to certain fundamental and macro-economic factors that appear to be coming tail-winds for crypto.
In the long term, I don’t believe that this nor any other election matters all that much. The phenomenon that is bitcoin and crypto transcends any one politician, party, or nation. It’s a moving train that won’t be stopped.
Solana ETF Updates
We’ve got some good and bad news for you with regards to Solana ETFs.
Starting with the good, a second Solana ETF was approved this week by the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission. The issuer for this second ETF is Hashdex, which is a brazil-based asset manager with roughly $1 billion in assets under management (AUM).
Brazil broke ground with its first Solana ETF approval on August 8th, when issuer QR Asset got the green light from Brazilian financial regulators.
Turning to the bad, it appears that the current batch of Solana ETF applications in the U.S. are “dead on arrival.” That’s according to Bloomberg’s ETF expert Eric Balchunas.
Both VanEck and 21Shares filed for SOL ETFs with the SEC in June. But according to Balchunas, these applications are likely goners given the SEC failed to proceed with preliminary processing.
Balchunas further opined on X that there’s “prob [a] near-zero chance [of an approval] in 2025” if Harris wins this November.
State Street to Offer Crypto Services for Institutional Clients
Financial behemoth State Street has partnered with Taurus to offer a suite of crypto services for the bank’s institutional clients.
State Street is a Boston-based bank and financial services company with roughly $4T in AUM. Currently, State Street is the U.S.’ fourth largest asset manager by AUM. Taurus is a Swiss-based crypto company that specializes in custody and tokenization services.
Well, it appears that State Street is planning to offer at least two types of crypto services to its clients: real world asset [RWA] tokenization and custody.
With regards to tokenization, the bank will help other institutions tokenize their RWAs, and then offer those RWAs for trading on-chain. State Street has said that this service will launch first, and that they’ll be announcing their first tokenization client soon.
With regards to custody, State Street says the service will take more time to start due to the SEC’s SAB 121 regulation, which requires U.S. banks that custody crypto to hold a certain amount of capital as a risk reserve.
State Street says that the regulation in its current form is over-burdensome, and that once it becomes more reasonable, their custody services will begin.
El Salvador Launches Bitcoin Certification for Government Employees
On Wednesday, El Salvador announced the launch of the country’s bitcoin instruction and certification program for its 80K government employees.
Administered by the country’s National Bitcoin Office of El Salvador (ONBTC), the 160 hour online program teaches principles around strategic management, law, and public policy in relation to bitcoin as legal tender.
Stacy Herbert, ONBTC’s director, has stated that the training program could have a “compounding effect” on the country’s bitcoin goals.
Babylon Protocol’s Bitcoin Staking Starts Today
Babylon, a bitcoin staking protocol, is set to launch its mainnet today.
As the first phase within a larger rollout, Babylon’s mainnet launch means bitcoin holders will be able to stake their bitcoin for yield to the protocol.
Babylon states that the staking is self-custodial, and that there’s no wrapping, swapping, or bridging of the asset onto other chains.
The kicker however is that the yield ultimately comes from other proof-of-stake altcoins. Babylon’s developers claim that they’ve devised a way whereby the staked bitcoin provides other POS chains with security, but the bitcoin itself isn’t actually bridged or staked onto those other chains.
In today’s edition, the following cryptocurrencies will be analysed & discussed:
- Injective (INJ)
- Vanar Chain (VANRY)
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Kadena (KDA)
- Avalanche (AVAX)
- Based Brett (BRETT)
Injective — INJ/USDT
Last week, we spoke about how INJ could be going for a retest attempt of the black $18.02 level as support:
Here’s today’s update:
INJ continues to struggle with $18.02 as resistance and it has been this way for the past 3 or so weeks now.
Of course, the bullish divergence idea is still a possibility and with that the Ascending Triangle formation on the RSI itself.
But INJ would need to reclaim the $18.02 level as support to lend further credence to this technical predicament on the RSI and for the bull div to play out successfully over time.
INJ is mimicking BTC in the sense that INJ is struggling to reclaim $18.02 and BTC is suffering the same with its own analogous level of $60600.
As long as BTC succeeds, INJ will too.
The technical predicament for INJ’s success is there; INJ just needs BTC to cooperate and lend a hand that would bring both closer to mutual achievement.
Vanar Chain — VANRY/USDT
Last week we spoke about a potential Weekly Close above the blue level to set up a retest attempt of said level via the green pathway:
Here’s today’s update:
VANRY indeed Weekly Closed above blue, though minimally, however it is enough to set up a potential retest of the blue level as new support.
This retest is now in progress.
Volatile downside wicks are permitted below the blue level for as long as VANRY is able to slink back up above the blue level and perform a Weekly Close above it.
CLICK HERE to go Premium and read the rest of this week’s Market Analysis – Premium subs can read Rekt capital’s full report.
The Rise of Polymarket: Betting on the Outcome of Events
Polymarket is the largest on-chain prediction market and has seen its number of accounts grow by 50 thousand per month in recent months.
The total value locked is around 100 million dollars. Its most popular prediction markets revolve around outcomes of political events. Polymarket has no token.
Crypto Market News
- Around 66% of institutions held or increased their Bitcoin ETF holdings in Q2. Source
- Goldman Sachs owns over $400 million in Bitcoin ETFs as of June 30. Source
- Morgan Stanley has become the fifth largest holder of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF with $188 million in holdings. Source
- The US Government has moved around 10,000 BTC to a Coinbase Prime deposit wallet. Source
- The State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) has bought another 447,651 shares in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF bringing its total to $98.9 million. Source
- The Norwegian Government Pension Fund has increased its indirect Bitcoin exposure by 62% in 2024. Source
- MetaMask has launched the pilot for its Mastercard debit card for users in the EU and UK. Source
- Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms has increased its stake in Bitfarms to 18.9% after adding another $2.28 million in investment. Source
- Bitcoin miner Hut 8 has been upgraded from sell to buy at H.C. Wainwright. Source
- Mercado Bitcoin has launched collateralized crypto loans in Brazil. Source
- The first leveraged MicroStrategy ETF has launched in the US. Source
- Bitcoin mining profitability dropped to all-time lows in August according to a JPMorgan analyst. Source
- Iran is giving $20+ to anyone who reports illegal crypto miners as the country faces power shortages. Source
- Marathon Digital bought $249 million in Bitcoin after raising $300 million in its convertible bond offering. Source
- ETF issuer Franklin Templeton has filed an S-1 registration statement for its new hybrid Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF. Source
- Japan’s Metaplanet has bought another $3.7 million worth of Bitcoin bringing its total holdings to 360 BTC. Source
Coins and Projects
- 94% of Bitcoin’s total supply has now been mined according to data from Glassnode. Source
- 45% of Bitcoin’s supply hasn’t moved in 6 months according to Glassnode. Source
- US Bitcoin ETFs will soon hold more than Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Source
- Crypto lender Ledn has received a $50 million Bitcoin-backed loan from regulated Swiss bank Sygnum Bank. Source
- Bitcoin miners stand to gain $13.9 billion a year from pivoting to AI and HPC according to VanEck. Source
- Coinbase has teased the launch of its new wrapped Bitcoin for the Base network called cbBTC. Source
- Ethereum liquid restaking protocol Renzo has expanded into the Solana ecosystem with its ezSOL token on Jito. Source
- Coinbase’s Base network has hit 4 million active users during its Onchain Summer campaign. Source
- Coinbase’s Base network has launched subnames based on the Ethereum Name Service infrastructure. Source
- Tether has expanded its USDT stablecoin to Aptos for lower fees. Source
- Tether has minted another $1 billion in USDT tokens on the Tron network. Source
- USDC tap-to-pay is coming soon to the Apple iPhone according to Circle’s CEO. Source
- A second spot Solana ETF has been approved in Brazil and will be issued by Hashdex in partnership with BTG Pactual. Source
- Solana ETF applications from the Cboe exchange on behalf of two ETF issuers have been rejected by the SEC. Source
- Tron has become the second blockchain to Ethereum in stablecoin market share. Source
- Tron has launched a memecoin token generator called SunPump to rival Solana’s Pumpfun. Source
- TON and Pyth have partnered to deliver real-time DeFi data on the TON blockchain. Source
- Floki has become the cryptocurrency partner for British Premier League soccer team Nottingham Forest. Source
- Ava Labs’ chief operating officer has confirmed his X account was hacked after it posted about a memecoin launch. Source
- Malaysia has adopted Worldcoin for personal verification and digital ID. Source
Macro News
- US inflation has fallen to 2.9% in July which is lower than expected. Source
- US credit card debt has reached a new all-time high of $1.14 trillion. Source
- Goldman Sachs has lowered its 12-month US recession probability to 20%. Source
- SEC chair Gary Gensler is reportedly being considered for Treasury Secretary if Kamala Harris wins the US Presidential election. Source
- Kamala Harris is planning to increase the US corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% if elected President. Source
- UK inflation rose from 2% in June to 2.2% in July but is lower than expected. Source
- New Zealand has cut interest rates by 0.25% for the first time since 2020. Source
- Thailand’s Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was removed by a court but it’s expected that the country’s crypto policies will remain mostly unaffected. Source
Thank you so much for your support, and I truly hope that today’s issue will give you insights needed to help you master your wealth.
If you are reading this it means you are on the free version of the Wealth Mastery Investor Report, which is great for news and tips on the crypto markets.
If you really want to take advantage of fastest growing asset class EVER, I highly recommend that you check out my new altcoin course: Mastering Altcoin Investing
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See you next time!
Lark and the Wealth Mastery Team
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Wealth Mastery (Lark Davis, and the Wealth Mastery writing team) are not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is Wealth Mastery registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. Wealth Mastery is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.
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