The Ethereum 4 Year Cycle, Dev Loses 200 BTC & Wilder World Looks SICK

This Weeks Trending Coins

In This Issue

  • I share my thoughts on the state of the market, Genesis saga, Bitcoin core dev loses 200 BTC, Wilder World looks SICK, Solana not dead & BONK airdrop.
  • Rebecca breaks down the latest news.
  • REKT has a TA report on the Ethereum four year cycle.

Premium Subscription highlights this week:

  • How To Invest In Web3: Erik looks at 3 ways to get involved and potentially make money in Web3.
  • New Airdrops: Check out Jesse’s new airdrops and incentivized testnets.
  • Altcoin Report: Every week we review a new altcoin and whether or not we think it’s a good investment.

What’s On My Mind by Lark

The State of the Market

While the prices are basically totally stagnant and moving sideways there have been some big stories in the last week. 

Fiji’s new Prime Minister is considering making Bitcoin into legal tender. Their neighbor Tonga is still reportedly moving ahead with plans to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender too. Both of these countries have lots of their citizens living abroad and getting screwed by remittance companies when they send money home so Bitcoin could really help people out. 

That being said, 2022 was rough, like really rough. 2022 was the only year in which Bitcoin put in 4 consecutive red quarters. 

The Ethereum 4 Year Cycle, Dev Loses 200 BTC & Wilder World Looks SICK - - 2023

The question now is are we heading for a fifth or can we finally get a bit of green this quarter? Well, basically everyone and their mom is calling for lower lows in Q1, followed by relief in Q2. 

Will the crowd be right? Or will the contrarians be right?  

In rates news, the FED meeting minutes were released today. The big takeaway is that the FED doesn’t believe any rate cuts should happen in 2023. Basically rates will continue to rise until they hit over 5%, and then they will stay high. 

Genesis Saga 

Gemini founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss have traded very public punches with Digital Currency Group’s Barry Silbert on Twitter. The twins have accused DCG of bad faith stall tactics over the 900 million in Gemini customer funds caught in limbo. Dutch crypto exchange Bitvavo is also facing similar issues. 

Genesis was one of the biggest lenders in the crypto space before the FTX collapse. Fears of contagion are still very prevalent because Genesis is owned by DCG which owns Grayscale. It remains to be seen how everything could be affected if a chapter 11 bankruptcy is forced or if enough lawsuits pile in. Billions in Bitcoin and ETH at Grayscale are in the spotlight. 

It has now also been reported that DCG and Genesis are under investigation by the SEC. Things could get spicy! 

Although, in a curious twist Valkyrie has stepped forward to say they would like to take over management of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. 

Bitcoin Core Dev Loses 200 Bitcoin 

This week a long-standing Bitcoin core dev lost 200 Bitcoin in a hack. While some claim the veracity of his claims saying that it was convenient for this “accident” to happen just before tax season. Anyway, it appears that his PGP key was compromised. And that this Bitcoin in question was kept on a hot wallet. WTF? I can’t imagine having that much Bitcoin sitting in a hot wallet. 3.6 million dollars in Bitcoin gone when a simple $100 Ledger Wallet could have kept his coins safe. 

Personally, I keep the vast majority of my coins in a cold wallet. While I have been using the Ledger Nano X, I did pre-order the new Ledger Stax! 

You can order your’s using this link https://cryptolark.co/LEDGER 

The Ethereum 4 Year Cycle, Dev Loses 200 BTC & Wilder World Looks SICK - - 2023

Wilder World Looks SICK!!! 

One of my portfolio coins Wilder World, one I have been bullish on for a while now, just released a pretty sick-looking game play trailer. This just serves as a reminder that in spite of the crazy bear market that teams are still building. Cool stuff is still happening. And while metaverse coins have been some of the hardest hit, I believe they will bounce back big time in the future. 

Solana Not Dead… Kind Of… 

The talk of the town since the collapse of FTX has been the slow and painful death of Solana. Or, is it dying? Will it have a renaissance? One thing is for certain the crypto market has a big and growing graveyard of “once were hot” blockchains. Does anyone remember Icon, Nem, and Komodo? 

It has been a real mixed bag for Solana since the FTX collapse. Price is continuing to crater hard. Some projects are jumping ship to Aptos. Defi’s total value locked went from 10 billion to 200 million in 2022. Popular NFT collections like DeGods and Yoots are bridging to Ethereum. Phantom Wallet, basically THE SOLANA WALLET, is going multichain. Magic Eden, the biggest Solana NFT market, is also going multichain. Basically a very tough time. 

But, not everything is so terrible. Year on year developer stats show a 2.5X increase in dev activity. While FTX has left a vacuum of money and broken companies, there is still money flowing into the ecosystem. 

In many ways, this reminds me of when Ethereum went to $80 during the last bear market. BTC maxis said ETH is dead, it has no use cases, etc. 

The road ahead will not be easy for Solana. They have a lot to prove and hungry competitors like Aptos are on the scene. 

Bonk Airdrop 

If you held certain Solana-based NFTs on your Solana wallet then you may have received an airdrop for a coin called BONK. This is a new dog meme coin that has launched on Solana. So check your wallet to see if you have some coins sitting in there. This is one of those drops that you either got or didn’t. So don’t go clicking on any links saying you can claim your coins, those are scams. Coins were sent to wallets directly. For what it is worth I sold mine.

In Case You Missed It by Rebecca

Crypto market news

MicroStrategy has bought 2,500 bitcoins for $45M and sold 704 bitcoins for the first time, for tax loss harvesting. Source

Michael Saylor has announced plans for MicroStrategy to release Bitcoin Lightning Network-powered software and solutions in 2023. Source

Bitcoin miner, Argo Blockchain, has avoided bankruptcy for now, after a $100M bailout from Galaxy Digital. Source

China will launch its first regulated platform for trading NFTs, on 1 January 2023. Source

Mark Cuban wants Bitcoin to drop in price so he can buy more and says, “if you have gold, you’re dumb as f*ck.” Source

Proton Mail CEO, Andy Yen, is debating whether the company should continue to hold Bitcoin, as he fears the drawdowns will turn new investors off. Source

Bitcoin miner, Bitfarms, has seen its CEO resign and be replaced by the COO. Source

Blackrock gives bankrupt Bitcoin miner, Core Scientific, a new $17M loan – Blackrock is its largest shareholder. Source

There are 6 token unlocks coming in January totalling $169M, from Moonbeam, Aptos, BitDAO, ApeCoin, Axie Infinity, and Ronin. Source

Ukrainian pharmacy chain, ANC Pharmacy, has partnered with Binance Pay to enable crypto payments at its 1,000+ pharmacies. Source  

Australia has installed its first Bitcoin Lightning ATM machine in the city of Coolangatta. Source

Final Fantasy creator, Square Enix, is to double down on blockchain game development, as explained in a letter from the company President. Source

Bitcoin miner, Riot Blockchain, is rebranding and changing its name to Riot Platforms, to reflect its increasingly diversified business approach. Source

3AC co-founder, Zhu Su, claims Digital Currency Group (DCG) and FTX conspired to attack Terra Luna and staked ETH. Source

Coins and Projects

Bitcoin turned 14 years old on 3 January 2023 and is the anniversary of the first-ever block of BTC mined. Source

Fedi has launched a Bitcoin hackathon in celebration of Bitcoin’s 14th birthday and will pay out 2.1 BTC to the winner. Source

Van Eck predicts Bitcoin price will drop to $10-12K in Q1 2023 but will rise to $30K by Q3. Source

Bitcoin shrimps holding less than 1 bitcoin have accumulated a total of 60,000 bitcoins in the last 30 days. Source

Bitcoin wallets holding 0.1-1 BTC have surpassed 1M and wallets holding 1-10 BTC have surpassed 2M. Source

Bitcoin core developer, Luke Dashjr, claims to have lost over 200 BTC in a PGP exploit. Source

Brazilians are turning to US stablecoins BUSD and USDT to beat inflation, with 50% of its national currency volumes moving into stablecoins. Source

Vitalik Buterin believes Solana still has intrinsic value and has a “bright future” ahead now that bad actors have gone. Source

Ethereum Name Service (ENS) registrations topped 2.2M in 2022. Source

Ethereum’s Lido Finance has overtaken MakerDAO and now has the highest total value locked (TVL) in DeFi. Source

BMW is planning to create a blockchain loyalty program for its customers in Thailand and will use BNB chain to settle transactions. Source

Trader Joe has launched its mainnet on Arbitrum in its first expansion to a chain outside of Avalanche. Source

SushiSwap “head chef” has proposed changes to increase liquidity and create more utility for its native token. Source

Dogecoin dropped over 13% in the last week after rumors it will undergo an Ethereum-like Merge. Source

Dogecoin Foundation has announced a new fund for core developers and has allocated 5M DOGE to the development of the ecosystem. Source

Macro news

Fiji has elected a pro-Bitcoin Prime Minster and has already received a step-by-step guide to how Fiji can make Bitcoin legal tender like Tonga plans to. Source

Turkey’s central bank has successfully completed its first payment transaction on its CBDC network as part of the initial test phase. Source

China’s digital yuan CBDC has seen low usage since its launch two years ago, with cumulative transactions of only $14B. Source

Italy has approved a 26% capital gains tax on crypto profits in its 2023 budget. Source

Two-thirds of TradFi expects the US to face a recession in 2023, according to a Wall Street Journal survey. Source

Gold has reached a 6-month high, and analysts are predicting a new all-time high in 2023 as a global recession looms. Source

Follow Rebecca on Twitter and Instagram.

The Ethereum 4 Year Cycle, Dev Loses 200 BTC & Wilder World Looks SICK - - 2023

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Market Analysis by Rekt Capital

Before we dive into the ETH 4-Year Cycle, it’s worth briefly showcasing the BTC 4 Year Cycle as a preface:

The Ethereum 4 Year Cycle, Dev Loses 200 BTC & Wilder World Looks SICK - - 2023

Each candle represents 12-months and represents a different period in the overall four year cycle.

Candle 1 is where price registers its final All Time High and ends its Bull Market.

Candle 2 is where price retraces significantly in a Bear Market.

Candle 3 is where price bottoms out and confirms its absolute Bear Market bottom.

Candle 4 is where price enjoys a reversal into a confirmed Bull Market.

To learn more about the BTC Four Year Cycle, checkout my Twitter thread.

Let’s now dive in to get a better understanding of Ethereum’s Four Year Cycle:

The Old ETH/USD Four Year Cycle (2017–2020)

The Ethereum 4 Year Cycle, Dev Loses 200 BTC & Wilder World Looks SICK - - 2023

The ETH/USD Four Year Cycle certainly seems much different to the BTC version.

For one, ETH has only had one full 4-year cycle compared to BTC having enjoyed two full cycles.

But nonetheless, it is worth analyzing the various price tendencies that occur within these interesting cycles.

The Ethereum 4 Year Cycle, Dev Loses 200 BTC & Wilder World Looks SICK - - 2023

Let’s focus on the 2017–2020 Four Year Cycle.

Candles 1 and 2 peak at $724 (blue).

Of course, both candles upside wick beyond $724 resistance, particularly the 2018 Candle 2, but generally the new 4-year cycle resistance is established at $724.

Price then rejects to the $128 level and though some downside wicking below this level takes place, generally the Candle 2 Yearly Closes above $128 to establish it as a new 4-year cycle.

And this is how the beginning of the $128-$724 new 4-year cycle range develops.

Essentially, the entire candle-body of the 2018 Candle 2 is sandwiched by this range.

And it is then within this entire range that Candle 3 and Candle 4 form.

Of course, both Candle 3 and Candle 4 perform downside wicks below the $128 support, but ultimately Yearly Close above said support.

And so this is how a general “downside wicking area” forms just below the key $128 Four Year Cycle support (green).

While the $128 Four Year Cycle support figures as the candle-bodied bottom of the Bear Market, the green downside wicking area represents the point of maximum financial opportunity for long-term bargain buyers.

In any case, Candle 3 rallies within this 4-year cycle range, essentially consolidating within it, whereas Candle 4 rallies to the top of the $128-$724 range.

It is only in the new Four Year Cycle that ETH enjoys a new All Time High and breaks into a new Four Year Cycle range.


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Final Notes

Still want more??? Check out my newest YouTube video: 5 Crypto Coins To Watch In 2023

The Ethereum 4 Year Cycle, Dev Loses 200 BTC & Wilder World Looks SICK - - 2023

Thank you so much for your support, and I truly hope that today’s issue will give you insights needed to help you master your wealth.

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Legal Disclaimer

TCL Publishing ltd (director Lark Davis, owner of Wealth Mastery) is not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is TCL Publishing registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. TCL Publishing is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.

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By Lark Davis

Combining cutting edge insider insights and done-for-you market analysis to deliver crypto investors the best opportunities to grow their wealth, stay ahead of the curve, and avoid costly mistakes! We cover DeFi, NFTs, Altcoins, Technical Analysis and more! 

Join the Wealth Mastery Investor Report

By Lark Davis

Combining cutting edge insider insights and done-for-you market analysis to deliver crypto investors the best opportunities to grow their wealth, stay ahead of the curve, and avoid costly mistakes! We cover DeFi, NFTs, Altcoins, Technical Analysis and more! 

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