This Bitcoin Doji Could Decide 2026

Bitcoin might close the year with a doji on the 12-month chart, so we’ll check what that setup means as positioning shifts into year-end, plus we’ve got:

• AMD strength as AI hardware spending broadens
• HYPE volatility tightening into a triangle pattern
• Continuing flows and fresh ETF launches for Solana
• Quantum stocks showing short-term swing potential

Chart of the Day

This AMD breakdown from Interesting Visuals gives some key data pointing to a bullish long-term setup for the AI hardware-related stock.

AMD is up 100% year-to-date, yet still screens at what many analysts consider a reasonable valuation, and while NVDA remains the heavyweight for AI infra, AMD is gaining real traction and it’s not crazy to imagine a scenario where it outperforms NVDA on a percentage basis from here.

Key points from the visual include:

• 51% gross margin and 14% free cash flow margin over the past year
• Data center revenue +22%, client revenue +46%, and gaming revenue +181% in Q3
• High rankings for company leadership and product portfolio diversification

So we get a stock that isn’t in deep-value territory, but also is not priced like it’s in peak euphoria, and it’s positioned comfortably in one of today’s strongest secular narratives.

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Trade of the Day

HYPE has spent weeks tightening inside a symmetrical triangle, with lower highs and higher lows squeezing price into a point where a bigger move is increasingly likely.

A break and close above the top of the triangle would be the long trigger, opening a path towards around $48 first, while if it breaks below support with real volume, then we get a strong short setup with downside levels around $32 to $30.

We’ve also got RSI in the mid-range and the MACD is flat, with Bollinger Bands starting to tighten, but note that HYPE has shown recent strength when almost everything else is selling off, and when the triangle resolves it should confirm HYPE’s next direction.

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Alpha Leaks

• Markets are now pricing a 46.4% chance of a Fed rate cut at the December meeting, with traders split. Markets reducing expectations creates a tougher backdrop for risk assets, but also means that if cuts happen, they may not have been priced in.
• The Monad token sale went live on Coinbase on November 17th, running until November 22nd with 7.5% of supply for sale at $0.025 per MON token, giving an FDV of $2.5 billion.
• HYPE DATs show relative strength according to data from Artemis, as over the past month, aggregated mNAVs across other crypto DATs have fallen (SOL 1.9 to 1.1, BTC 1.2 to 0.96, ETH 1.2 to 0.99) while HYPE mNAVs climbed from 2.5 to 2.8.
• And Hyperliquid is dominating perps trading, with $266 billion in notional volume over 30 days. This is more than all other perps DEXs combined, with dYdX coming in second at $9.1 billion, and then SynFutures third at $9 billion.
• Crypto investment firm Multicoin Capital last week confirmed that it has built a large position in ENA, citing Ethena’s synthetic dollar USDe as a way to generate yield through delta neutral trading strategies.
• The market will be focused on Nvidia (NVDA) as it reports earnings this Wednesday, giving us a critical read on AI infrastructure demand.
• Then on Thursday, Walmart (WMT) is also set to report, giving a valuable indication of how the US consumer is holding up as we go into year-end.
• Amazon (AMZN) will kick off its first US bond sale in nearly a decade, aiming to raise $15 billion, partly to fund AI-related capex plans.

Go Premium to read this week’s report on Energy Fuels, a U.S. producer of uranium and critical minerals.

News Roundup

Is BTC Printing a Huge Yearly Doji?

Bitcoin’s yearly candle is starting to take on a doji shape, with prices now oscillating around where they were at year-open, and long wicks both up and down. That kind of candle is significant on such a long timeframe, and usually signals a market approaching a major inflection point.

Why it matters:

• A yearly doji after a huge impulse can mean trend pause, not a trend ending
• If 2026 breaks to the upside first, it supports the case for another melt-up leg
• But if price heads lower at first in 2026, it leans towards a cycle top already forming

So the bullcase is that this is compression within the cycle, and the kind of equilibrium you get before a late-stage parabolic run. On the other hand, bears will take it as showing distribution near the highs before a deeper correction, especially given the long upper wick and choppy reaction to macro liquidity shifts.

Either way though, BTC has paused and whichever side breaks first is likely to set the tone for 2026, although note also that there are still six weeks to go until year-end, so this pattern might shift before then.

New SOL ETFs Launch This Week

Solana just gained another regulated investment product, with VanEck’s new SOL ETF, VSOL, now trading in the US. The fund will participate in SOL staking, and VanEck is waiving its 0.3% sponsor fee on the first $1 billion in assets after launch.

Additionally, Fidelity is launching its rival SOL ETF, FSOL, on Tuesday, and on the same day, Canary is also set to launch its SOL ETF, SOLC.

Meanwhile, already-operating SOL ETFs BSOL and GSOL (from Bitwise and Grayscale) are on a 15-day streak of net inflows, as per Farside Investors, even though the broader crypto ETF landscape has struggled. For context, spot Bitcoin ETFs and spot ETH ETFs have both seen three consecutive weeks of net outflows.

Aave Wants Your Savings Account

DeFi heavyweight Aave Labs is rolling out a potentially game-changing new consumer product called Aave App. This is a stablecoin savings mobile app that promises balance protection up to $1 million (higher than the $250,000 banking industry standard), alongside yields of up to 9%.

The app aims to make locking in DeFi yield as user-friendly as possible, connecting with over 12,000 banks and cards, and sidestepping the need to get familiar with the complexities of DeFi protocol mechanics.

Aave stepping into retail-friendly savings products can help bring fresh capital into crypto from traditional savers, and providing insurance is a major positive, since DeFi hacks and exploits have been a regular occurrence in recent years.

Potentially then, Aave is opening the doors for DeFi to go mainstream, and for a much wider pool of users to opt for stablecoins and onchain yield as a viable alternative to bank savings.

Degen Play of the Day

Quantum computing names have been bleeding out badly during the recent tech shakeout, with several down over 50% from their recent tops. Long-term, these may have real potential, but this is the degen corner, so we’re mentioning them here as short-term swing plays that can bounce after recent drops if sentiment picks up.

Some tickers to keep tabs on include:

• RGTI (Rigetti Computing): superconducting qubits, arguably one of the more credible tech roadmaps, heavily discounted from its October top.
• QBTS (D-Wave Quantum): quantum annealing angle, high beta, has the potential to move fast when speculation returns.
• QUBT (Quantum Computing): photonic hardware and software stack ambitions, but trades on momentum.

Legal Disclaimer

Wealth Mastery (Lark Davis, and the Wealth Mastery writing team) are not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is Wealth Mastery registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. Wealth Mastery is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.

You can find a full disclosure of all my crypto & venture investments here.