Early spring is here again! In January, the shorts were squeezed out and we got the first part of a later-stage bear market rally. In February, the liquidity thrown on the markets by the Chinese Central Bank seems to have pumped the prices some more. In China, they’re stimulating their economy. Whereas in the land of Jerome Powell, liquidity conditions still aren’t looking great for the coming months.
The below chart (source: tedtalksmacro) suggests an interesting correlation between the recent BTC price and ‘east liquidity’ (red line): the added monetary printing from China, Japan, Saudi, and Australia.
Global liquidity appears to have bottomed in the second half of 2022 (black line). This strengthens our hope that the worst of winter is behind us. But as anyone knows who lives in a temperate climate, cold spells can show up until well into May. So don’t be taken off guard by some choppy price action in the coming months.
Talking about the East for a bit more. Hong Kong is increasingly establishing itself as a crypto-friendly domain. Singapore and South Korea were already on their way and continue to try to attract capital and talent. It’s a welcome reminder that, while the United States may be messing up its progress regarding regulation – this isn’t crypto’s death knell. In Hong Kong or Dubai, they don’t particularly care about Gary Gensler’s turf war…
In the second half of February, BTC tried on numerous occasions to conquer the $25.200 resistance. It’s a tough level to challenge, as it is the point where the 200-week moving average (blue line) lies. Also, it is the point where BTC found support after the Luna crash in May 2022 and faced resistance in the bear market rally of the summer of 2022 (horizontal red line).
So, will March turn out to be the macro breakout month? No guarantees but check this chart that Rekt Capital shared in early February.
We’ll just have to wait and see. In the meantime, for some well-researched hopium, check out Ark’s Big Ideas Report. They stick to their earlier price target for BTC of around 1 million dollars in 2030 (admittedly, they also have a bearish price target of around 250k). Perhaps more important even than price predictions, is the realization of how mind-blowing the speed of innovation is – not just in crypto but also in fields like AI, genetics, and 3D printing. It’s a nice step back from the hourly charts.
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