Monthly Crypto Alpha Report – March 2024
Holy crap, guys, what a month.
Just when I thought I couldn’t get more bullish, it turns out I should have been more bullish.
Let’s put our portfolio app aside for a mere second and zoom out a bit.
At the time of writing, there are still ten hours left in the month. It looks like we will print the highest monthly close AND the biggest monthly candle ever: up roughly 20k from Feb 1.
That’s a pump of almost 50% and such gains on the monthly time frame only happen once every few years. The last time we had equally crazy months was in the winter of 2020/21.
The remarkable thing is that BTC is approaching these near-all-time-high levels even before the halving. We’re ahead of schedule.
For comparison, the last time we were roughly 50 days before the halving, the price hovered around 8k: only 40% of the previous all-time high. A similar percentage for the present cycle would correspond to roughly 28k per BTC.
Looking at the RSI on almost any timeframe, you’ll see overbought levels. From bull markets in the past we know that these overbought indicators can keep flashing for long stretches of time.
Still, in a normal market, you would expect resistance/pullbacks at current levels. If history rhymes, a pre-halving retrace is in the cards. But it seems that something has changed in the markets. It’s as if all bets are off.
We know of course the reason for the current buy pressure. The Bitcoin ETFs are sucking up gargantuan amounts of BTC on a daily basis, often 8-10 times what Bitcoin miners produce. Here’s a chart from Bitmex research, with the cumulative net inflows. They aren’t slowing down, it seems.
All this is already happening while executives in the ETF industry are still in the early phases of marketing their Bitcoin products to their clients.
There are still many brokerage accounts that don’t offer the ETFs. They will come, though. The price implications could be wild…
ETH Versus the Dollar and BTC
Against the backdrop of the Bitcoin ETF craziness, ETH has been doing amazing. It has printed four green weeks in a row and, like BTC, is up roughly 50% on the month. It’s now bumping into the ancient 2022 area of resistance.
ETH is still in a downtrend versus BTC but has been attempting to break out from the downtrend. Something to keep an eye on. ETH breaking out could be the catalyst for a juicy alt season.
ETH currently doesn’t have Bitcoin’s demand through an ETF, but it has the buy-the-rumour tailwind of a potential upcoming ETF.
Then there is the upcoming Dencun upgrade, scheduled for mid-March. Bullish for both Ethereum and its L2’s such as Optimism, Arbitrum, you name them.
Solana
No, we haven’t forgotten you, Solana. Coins that print such beautiful chart patterns get a special mention in the monthly.
Enjoy the present moment but don’t get caught up too much in the moonboy hopium.
Position yourself in a way that you will be ok with different scenarios, for example a sharp retrace, sideways action, or yet another pump.
While glancing at your portfolio app way too often, remember to keep doing your research. Keep focusing on the area you want to focus on in this bull market. Your airdrops, your NFTs, wherever you feel like you have an edge.
And make sure to have your selling plan printed out on the wall. Right? Right?
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TCL Publishing ltd (director Lark Davis, owner of Wealth Mastery) is not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is TCL Publishing registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. TCL Publishing is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.
You can find a full disclosure of all my crypto & venture investments here.
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