Monthly Crypto Alpha Report – September 2023

GM friends.

August wasn’t an easy month in crypto. But then again, historically it rarely is. 📉

We experienced the largest Bitcoin sell-off of the year followed by some great news regarding a possible spot BTC ETF. 

All this turbulence can leave investors a little confused, but we’ve got your back.

Let’s dive into the September Alpha Report. 🚀

In the period leading up to mid-August, the price of BTC was reportedly less volatile than the oil price!

Well, that changed on August 17th. The price drop from 29k to below 26k meant the largest single-day sell-off of the year.

BTC fell below some tender bull market support levels such as the 200-day and 200-week moving average.

A true gift to the people that stack extra on dips. BTC is heavily ‘oversold’ on the daily timeframe.

Historically it is not a bad idea to buy in this situation.

Also, we might see a bullish crossover of the MACD any day now. No guarantee that this will turn out bullish but something to keep in mind for sure.

UPDATE

Right after finishing this monthly report, the news broke that Grayscale won its case against the SEC.

The SEC has to reconsider if it will approve the transition of Grayscale’s Bitcoin trust into a Bitcoin ETF. The crypto markets pumped across the board.

BTC trades at the time of writing around 27.5k, battling with the important moving averages such as the 200-week and 200-day moving average.

In the coming days we will see if BTC is rejected from this level or not. 

END UPDATE

One line of support, as pointed out by Rekt Capital, could be the previous resistance of the inverse head-and-shoulders that we broke out of in March, around 24k.

Look, I get it. If you had packed your bags for the coming bull market and thought it would be up only, you might feel nervous. But I wouldn’t worry too much about this price drop.

As I mentioned last month, we are in the long ‘hope’ market phase, punctuated by episodes of fear. 

This is a classic accumulation stage of the market, where smart investors buy from those who have gotten bored and give up. As Warren Buffett famously said: 

‘The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.’ 

As you are probably aware, Buffett is no fan of crypto. But the market psychology is the same. You who are reading this, bear market accumulator, will have the opportunity to distribute your coins in profit to the herd when they return.

But when?

The current market situation isn’t great. The month of September is traditionally pretty crap for crypto and it looks like the Fed wants to keep hiking and keep stocks (and crypto) down.

Crypto market volumes are low and with ‘thin’ order books, whales have more power to push the market up and down in the direction they like, taking out traders in any direction.

Traders hate it, but the accumulatoooors love it.

In this boring time in terms of price action, many people walk away.

You might feel the urge of just f it. But having patience and paying attention now will pay off. 

Blackrock sure does. They are all over the place, aiming for an ETF, and investing in Bitcoin miners.

The country of Oman recently announced a billion-dollar investment in Bitcoin miners.

Bitcoin and crypto are going nowhere.

The Bitcoin halving isn’t that far away.

The Ethereum ecosystem is exploding.

There will be another bull run, the question is just how long it will take to build up.

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TCL Publishing ltd (director Lark Davis, owner of Wealth Mastery) is not providing you individually tailored investment advice. Nor is TCL Publishing registered to provide investment advice, is not a financial adviser, and is not a broker-dealer. The material provided is for educational purposes only. TCL Publishing is not responsible for any gains or losses that result from your cryptocurrency investments. Investing in cryptocurrency involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire investment. Investors should consult their financial adviser before investing in cryptocurrency.

You can find a full disclosure of all my crypto & venture investments here.