Market Roundup
On April 1st the BTC price was around 28.4k. While we haven’t moved much, volatility has been impressive on some days. Mid-April, price shot up to 31k and people started posting bullish predictions and memes. A deserved moment of celebration after BTC posted its first 100% gain since the November low of 15.5k.
Then BTC corrected to 27k. Bears started putting on sports gear for their victory laps but were caught with their pants down when the price bounced back sharply. A crazy day was the 26th, with price zig-zagging and taking out big short and long positions in the span of a few hours. A good month for traders!
For hodlers, it was nice to see the price bouncing back strongly from an area of price support of around 27,000 and the 50-day simple moving average. A line to watch if we want to stay short/mid-term bullish.
In the current post-bear market upswing, we haven’t seen the usual corrections of over 20%. While these corrections are standard for Bitcoin in an uptrend. See the below Glassnode chart, comparing the current upswing (right line, in black) to those of prior cycles.
We could say we’re in an ‘upswing for ants’. Should a bigger upswing come, then be prepared for some more serious pullbacks.
Bitcoin Dominance Flirting with Resistance
In mid-April Bitcoin dominance was rejected from the multi-year 49% resistance. It has been creeping back up though, marking the highest monthly close in 2 years. It will be interesting to see if Grand Old Orange can finally break this multi-year ceiling and go on a tear versus alts.
Switching to Ethereum. The Shapella upgrade was a success. Finally, Ethereum has a fully functioning staking economy. And nope, the price didn’t dump. In fact, on most days, the number of ETH deposited is bigger than the number of ETH un-staked, creating bullish momentum. Not only that, but the total amount of ETH staked is now higher than before Shapella. All this with the headwind of Kraken’s un-staking that is forced by the US ‘anti-crypto army’.
Speaking of which. The grilling of SEC Chair Gary Gensler in Congress showed that there are plenty of American congressmen who are pro-crypto or at least anti-suing every crypto company in sight without a clear legal framework. And again, even if the US were to sue shoot itself in the foot, crypto spans the globe. In the same week that Gensler looked like a timid schoolboy in front of Congress, lawmakers in the European Union voted in favor of a new crypto licensing regime, MiCA. It will only come into effect in about 18 months. But slow and steady might be winning the race for them.
On to macro. The S&P500 recorded the highest monthly close in a year. Part of the reason: companies’ earnings have beaten expectations.
The same can’t be said for US regional banks. The banking crisis is unfolding in slow motion, with First Republic Bank being another victim. The way US banks are exploding with big intervals reminds me of the days leading up to New Year’s Eve. The occasional firecracker foreshadows the massive eruptions. But of course, the US government won’t let it come to that point. A systemic collapse would be disastrous, and that’s why many think quantitative easing can’t be far. That would be bullish for crypto.
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