Monthly Crypto Alpha Report – March 2024
Holy crap, guys, what a month.
Just when I thought I couldn't get more bullish, it turns out I should have been more bullish.
Let's put our portfolio app aside for a mere second and zoom out a bit.
At the time of writing, there are still ten hours left in the month. It looks like we will print the highest monthly close AND the biggest monthly candle ever: up roughly 20k from Feb 1.
That's a pump of almost 50% and such gains on the monthly time frame only happen once every few years. The last time we had equally crazy months was in the winter of 2020/21.
The remarkable thing is that BTC is approaching these near-all-time-high levels even before the halving. We're ahead of schedule.
For comparison, the last time we were roughly 50 days before the halving, the price hovered around 8k: only 40% of the previous all-time high. A similar percentage for the present cycle would correspond to roughly 28k per BTC.
Looking at the RSI on almost any timeframe, you'll see overbought levels. From bull markets in the past we know that these overbought indicators can keep flashing for long stretches of time.
Still, in a normal market, you would expect resistance/pullbacks at current levels. If history rhymes, a pre-halving retrace is in the cards. But it seems that something has changed in the markets. It’s as
Hey
for strk airdrop, the minimum balance was like 30 dollars, right?
I am preparing to keep min balance on other L2s now
So, If I am supplying some liquidity of usdt or Eth on some dapp on that L2
Does it still count as my balance?
Also what happens when I am borrowing?
what is my balance in this scenario..?
Thanks
It was 0.005 ETH. It is never certain how exactly they will treat things like balance during an airdrop. There is no metric beforehand. So in theory lending and borrowing would qualify you even if your eth balance was under 0.005, but who knows how other chains will do it.
Thanks Team! Wondering if the BTC ETFs accelerating the curve means we won’t have a retrace like we’re have in the past? I’ve been sidelined for several months and trying to find a way / time to get back in before we head for new ATHs.
I have a good chunk of cash to invest and would be grateful for any guidance, not financial advice :$
It is a good question, and one that no one has the answer to. Normally we can expect 20 to 30% drawdowns. But with the inflows from Wall Street things have been unusual in the cycle. Can’t tell you when to buy, but have you considered dollar cost averaging in? Still might not be the best idea if markets pump hard again.
Hey Lark! Thank you for the straight talk. I know we’re early but the window is closing. I suppose I could ape 50% of my cash into BTC and DCA 50% into some alts. BTC might go down 20% but it’ll find its way back. DCA-ing into alts might be good as long as I look for the fastest horses in each category (RWA, DeFI, DePIN, sub $100M, etc.). I follow your newsletters, YouTube channel, and the monthly alpha. Any faves you’re holding through 2025?
There are loads of interesting low caps, a few I like and own are EMC, MXM, Creta, Elumi, Prisma (but main chain eth so fees suck)
Not low caps, but JUP and JOE
Obviously not saying to blindly ape those by the way, but they are ones I found interesting
Thanks, man! I just staked a bit of JOE, and have been looking for a few lowcaps. I’ll check these out and cross my fingers for a 100X LOL. Much appreciated! SOOOoooo glad I found you on YouTube. Wishing you had a “Lifetime Membership” option!
Thank you! Glad you are here
Hi Lark,
I would love for you to do a deep dive on how to get yield from our bags in a safe way. Is there a way to get some yield and still keep your keys? Thanks!
Yes and no.
The safest way is by staking your coins if you can. Keep in mind withdrawal cool down periods.
Many assets can be used for airdrop farming, but this comes with risks of many kinds.
Defi farming can get crazy yields but is pretty risky too due to hacks and impermanent loss.
Centralised lending should be avoided
Hey Lark!
I’ve been in the crypto space for several years now (primarily buying and holding BTC). I have an additional $80k in cash I’m wanting to put into alts this cycle to hit that million dollar territory. Thinking of doing an 80/20 split between midcap (80%) and lowcap (20%) coins. I may also get into a few meme coins on the side for fun. Do you think it would be too much of a spread to do 10 midcap coins and 10 lowcap? Or should I narrow that down further? I work from home so I do have time to monitor the charts as needed. Alts are new for me, though!
How you would go about getting the most out of $80k during this cycle?
Thanks!
Well, not financial advice of course. 20 coins is a lot to watch. And you won’t necessarily out perform with 20 coins. 5 and 5 would probably be enough. Similar potential, but half the headache. And, yes, if it were me investing 20k today then I would also focus on mid and low caps. Keeping in mind that a few could go to zero, and that I may need to stomach wild drawdowns of 50% during the bull market.
Gotcha, thanks!
Would you split the $80k by doing 20% into the low caps and the remaining 80% into mid caps? Or should I be more aggressive?
That of course totally comes down to you and your risk tolerance. And probably on the coins you find. The challenge now is to get a list of 20 coins then cut it down to 10 that you really like. You might find a few of those are low cap so your final numbers might be like 60/40 or something
Thanks, sir! Do you recommend I dca into alts daily up to halving, weekly up to halving, or just go all in on each position now? Crazy what’s happening w/ btc!
I can’t give you that kind of financial advice. Each one of these has their own pro and con and risk profile and that is something that you need to answer personally based on your investment strategy.
What are your thoughts on SHIDO post-hack? The token has been moved to a new address and is available on Uniswap while trading on MEXC is currently paused. Meanwhile, their CEO put out a 16-minute statement on YouTube today (https://youtu.be/vfS7mL8fpF8?si=UYDVSVNlQaDeqoIG). If he is to be believed, development will continue. How would you say they handled the situation? Would you say that the project is now unlikely to attract money due to lack of trust? Contrariwise, might the hack present a good opportunity to invest in a still-solid project when people are wary of it? Are there comparable situations that might indicate where this is headed? If you could give your thoughts on this, I would greatly appreciate it.
Thanks
Me personally, I will not be buying any. With so many coins in the market, it doesn’t seem worth the risk. I do understand the contrarian take though. That being said their staking contract was what got hacked it I remember correctly, if so that speaks to flaws in the blockchain.
Hey, what are the best markets for me to buy coins not listed on Binance, Coinbase and the likes? From uk/ireland. Thanks in advance
Quite simply you need to get on chain.
Fund a Phantom wallet and use Jupiter for Solana.
For any Ethereum chains use Metamask and Unsiwap.
Thanks for the response, I have downloaded Phantom although it sais I have no buy options in my country 😑 is this because I haven’t funded the wallet or has it been restricted in my region? If the latter what’s another I could use?
Using fiat in wallet may be restricted, but you can just send Solana from another exchange. Then go on and use Jupiter and other services no problem.
Hey
What are you doing with your ETHFI token that you claimed today?
When is the last date to claim these?
SInce gas fees is like 50 dollars
I am thinking of wait until weekend to claim them
What do you suggest here?
I sold mine. Not sure when the final claim date is, you need to check their site or public info. In terms of gas fees, you could try to manually adjust the gas fees to pay lower fees then if there is a block that has less demand then it might get filled. Risk is the fees may not drop down enough. You may just need to bite the bullet and pay the fees.
Thanks for this opportunity, I am very happy to be part of this community. I am very new in the Bitcoin world. Please I would like to know when is the best time to buy BTC now or during the halving. Please I need your guide.
Thanks.
I wish I could give you a solid answer on that. The truth is no one knows. In general watch to buy on red days. Maybe look at dollar cost averaging to get a possibly better time weighted price.
Hey
I am thinking to buy ”LIBERTAS OMNIBUS COLLECTION” NFT to get eligible for zksync airdrop
Is it worth it..?
Do you think the snapshot has been taken..?
Thanks
I have no idea, haha. Libertas NFT may or may not give something. Snapshot… who knows…
Sorry, wish I had answers for you
Hi Lark, I see you have a big bag of Nibiru… Anything you know that we dont know?? Could you talk about it? thanks
Nope, it is just a venture investment that I made that came out at a higher valuation than expected. I think the coin has decent potential, so I am holding onto it for now.
I am new to your report and just signed up for your premium service. I am trying to decide what to buy based on your portfolio and with Nibi being a big bag you hold, would you still buy at this price if you didn’t have any in your portfolio? In other words, do you think it’s a good investment at this stage and how high do you think the marketcap could go before you consider selling?
Hi, first off, I share my portfolio for educational and disclosure purposes. You shouldn’t buy something just because own it.
Nibi is an interesting case, it came from a venture investing round and came out at a higher than expected valuation and size of my portfolio.
That being said, it is a cosmos ecosystem chain with a low cap and big backers. It has potential and I am holding onto based on that. When I will sell will be determined later, could be late cycle or it could be based on a singular pump or losing faith. Reserving the right to make that call later