Monthly Crypto Alpha Report – April 2024

April

February's holy-crap-green-candle was followed by another nice green one, BTC's seventh green successive monthly close.

Let's see what is going on.


Is this time different? Seven months in a row BTC has closed higher. This hasn't happened before.

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Granted, it's a bit of a lucky streak, as January was only 200 dollars removed from closing lower than December. But still. We're still in a solid Bitcoin ETF rally.

Another sign that market structure is interesting is that the (healthy) pullback of the current bull run - The March 14 - March 19 pullback - was roughly 18% deep and the previous ones of 2023/2024 were in a similar 20% ballpark.

Anyone who witnessed the 2020/21 bull run, knows that these are pullbacks for ants. Of course, bigger pullbacks can and probably will come...

It's interesting to see how the inflows for the Bitcoin ETFs behaved during this pullback. Here's a plot from The Block.

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The red bars are Grayscale Bitcoin Trust outflows, the other colors are the 9 new ETFs. It's remarkable that they have seen consistent net inflows, even during the price correction. The ETF holders aren't as paper-handed as we might have thought. This continuous inflow is not normal, in fact the current streak is apparently a record in ETF history. 

The ETFs

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  1. Hey,
    I’m engaged in my first wallet transaction using phantom and metamask. I watched the tutorial on phantom. Im having an issue swapping/bridging some matic tokens. I am assuming that they are ethereum network tokens (little eth symbol over the matic symbol). I sent them from wealthsimple to my Phantom wallet. Now trying to swap them to eth or usdt. Phantom is not letting me do this. Making me think that I have poly network tokens and not ethereum. I tried uniswap and it said that I need to bridge (it detects poly network?). A bit confused now I guess. What am I missing here? Also tried to send the matic to an exchange account but once again Phantom is blocking it.
    Thanks!

  2. Hmmm. Just realizing that having 0 eth in the phantom wallet is likely the cause of the issue. It wants ETH for gas on the eth network and wont accept matic for gas? Is that right? Thanks again.

          1. Hi Lark, apparently you are the only person I trust in this space at the moment. I randomly received airdrops in my phantom wallet after some transactions on jupiter. Definitely a lot of scam addresses floating around there. Assuming that I shouldn’t click on anything in my wallet that I don’t recognize. Wondering how this may have happened. Scambot scanning solscan for new addresses maybe? Might stick to Base/Definitive for a while.

          2. Yeah, be careful those are probably scams. Look at them like those Nigerian Prince scam emails. Same stuff but on the blockchain. Exactly, don’t click on any coins you don’t recognize.