Monthly Crypto Alpha Report – August 2023


Market Roundup

Things are looking up. Narratives are bullish or have at least broken out of the ‘bearish wedge’ they were trapped in, lol. Bitcoin had its bullish share of news in June with the Blackrock ETF filing. In July, it touched a new yearly high of 31.4k on the daily charts. Altcoins had their bullish injection in July, with the Ripple victory - more on that later.

In terms of price, the story of the month is sideways, in a narrow range. Even Bollinger himself would be impressed looking at these BTC charts!

I consider this stage of the market cycle as the hope phase, even though it can feel like between hope and fear. Depending on your temperament, and depending on the news of the day, one or the other emotion gets the upper hand. The Ripple court case is a victory but hasn’t won us the war. There is a ton of uncertainty left. Chokepoint 2.0 isn’t over. A recession may still be in the cards. The federal money printer is still sitting still.

The consensus among most analysts and traders is that we have entered the early stages of a bull market. The problem with early-stage bull markets? They can take a year or so to really take off. 

Also: the early stage doesn’t feel bullish. The post-traumatic stress from the recent bear is hard to shake off. Prices can and will dip after strong rallies. 

The Fear & Greed Index signals this too. It has

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