Monthly Crypto Alpha Report – October 2023

October 2023

October is here! And it's a month that historically plays out quite well for those investing in crypto.

But what about this year? Will it be just like the past or is this time different?

Let's dive into the October Crypto Alpha Report and find out.

In the past rather stale month, it has been worth noting how stable BTC has been in the wake of a hawkish Fed and a strong dollar, both of which are not great for risk assets. 

Here's the BTC price on the weekly chart. At the time of writing, it has crossed the 50-week Exponential Moving Average to the upside. 

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Below is the chart of the dollar index (DXY). It has been on a tear in recent months and breaking above the 50-week moving average.

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So, the dollar is strong and BTC is... kind of strong. That's a slightly out-of-whack state of affairs, as the BTC/DXY pair is most of the time inversely correlated.

And if you thought this is the only mixed message the market gives us, you're in for a surprise. The economy is like a plane in flight that is almost stalling. Different metrics are flashing mixed signals, confusing the pilots. 

It is a consequence of the whiplash that was given to markets after the covid shock and the subsequent extreme money printing and then

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