Monthly Crypto Alpha Report – May 2024

May 2024

As so often, seven turned out to be an important number.

The seven-month green streak had to find an end. Who would have thought that the halving would be celebrated with a fat dump?

Ah well, maybe it’s some kind of poetic justice.

Let’s dive in. 

A few words on the macro situation first. The second leg of inflation has arrived, and the Fed was in a pickle. Nobody wants higher rates. The Fed couldn’t do much else but keep rates where they are and hope inflation cools…

I read that the Fed has started buying back treasuries to keep the bond market liquid. It’s a sign that they will need to apply more liquidity into the system, which is good for asset prices. 

That was the macro backdrop, now let’s dive into crypto.

A month ago, we were in the potential scenario of bulls being in charge and a breakout from the wedge. But in early April, the signs were piling up that BTC was rolling over.

On April 12 the ascending triangle broke to the downside. The dump on May 1st rubbed quite a bit of salt in our wounds.

Counting from the peak in mid-March, we have retraced 23%, which is pretty modest compared to previous bull markets, but still the largest correction of the current bull market. Especially for new investors, these can be hard to stomach.

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  1. Hi Lark
    I used bybit for p2p usdt buying
    I paid full amount in euros but i didnot recieve my usdt yet
    I raised an appeal
    and the customer service just shared some screenshots on how I can ask for refund and stuff which seemed to be like auto generated or something
    and they are of no use
    It has been more than 10 hours since this happened
    the other guy seems to be offline ever since he recieved my money

    Any other way how I can speak to these customer service people..?

  2. Thanks as always for all the great news, strategy, & alpha in the market. I’m trying to setup an exit strategy. Aside from top signals, I think there is merit to having exit targets – either price targets for individual tokens or market caps for the projects. Can you please make a video or share in a newsletter some price targets for coins you’ve been discussing in your channels? Maybe discussing across the main narratives would be a good way to organize.
    The OTHER BIG CONFUSION I think you could really help with is that not all the narratives will pump at the same time. Maybe gaming will pump and then when it fades, the liquidity will flow to RWA and then maybe to AI… there any way to track when different narratives are pumping….or just stay vigilant about the news and markets?
    Thanks as always!!

    1. Hey, we have made videos on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana market cap predictions. For altcoins it is a tricky game trying to predict how high something could go during the mania phase. But, never the less, could be a fun idea for a future video.

      RE narratives, you just have to stay up to date with the market and the news. Sites like coinmarketcap can help you keep an eye on trending coins too.

      1. Thanks lark. I watch your channel every day, along with one other crypto investor, and two traders’ channels. Trying to synthesize the info to create my own plan.
        I’ll be watching for you to confirm when it seems like an Altcoin sector is pumping 🙂

  3. What coins are good to hold INTERCYCLE? Or are we selling 100% of bags at the top? Intuitively it makes sense to sell EVERYTHING and buy back what you like in the bear market. Right?

    1. So far history has shown none of them. Maybe the next bear market is less severe, but that is just speculation. There are taxes to account for so keep that in mind. But generally most altcoins will face horrific losses in the bear market. I plan on selling down my altcoin positions by the way. Bitcoin I will just ride inter cycle.

      1. Thanks for sharing. I have half my bags in a crypto hedge fund, and the other half I’m trying to outperform the hedge fund. I figure they give me enough BTC exposure so I’m free to redistribute my percentages to riskier projects.