Monthly Crypto Alpha Report – June

Alpha Report

Market Roundup

I'm still waiting for a boring month in crypto, but it seems we'll have to wait forever. Even with prices pretty much flat, plenty of incidents kept us entertained. A company like Ledger suddenly entered its midlife crisis... Bitcoin maxi's clashing with the Taproot Wizards at Bitcoin Miami, right after a US presidential candidate vowed his support for Bitcoin. Who would have thought a few years ago that Bitcoin would be an issue for many presidential candidates. Beneath the flat surface of the price, things are shifting...

For traders, it was a boring month. Total crypto trading volumes are at record lows. According to the Glassnode chart below, Bitcoin's transfer volume has dropped a staggering 79% since early 2021. There aren't a lot of sellers. Everyone who wanted to sell has already long done so, so I'm pretty confident the bottom is in. But there are also not many buyers yet. Low volumes mean we have less certainty about the current value of an asset. Historically, low volumes in crypto have often preceded big price movements.

Looking at the price, not much has happened since a month ago. But it was cool to see that last week, BTC reclaimed the 50-day EMA.

At the time of writing BTC is struggling to hold this 50-day EMA line.

A few days earlier, BTC price bounced off the 200-week moving average around $26,200.

It's the kind of retest you want to see

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